The key questions for the Biden administration and Saudi Arabia today are: “What should we do next?” The good news, both sides told me, is that implementation of the mutual defense treaty they created is 90 percent complete. However, there are still some important points to keep in mind. These include exactly how the United States will manage the civilian nuclear energy program that Saudi Arabia deploys under the deal. Will the elements of mutual defense be explicit, as between the United States and Japan, or less formal, as in the understanding between the United States and Taiwan? And Saudi Arabia has made a long-term commitment to continue pricing its oil in US dollars rather than switching to the Chinese currency.
But another part of the deal seen as key to gaining support in Congress is for Saudi Arabia to normalize relations with Israel. That will only happen if Israel agrees to Riyadh’s terms. The plan is to withdraw from Gaza, freeze settlement construction in the West Bank, and embark on a three- to five-year path to establishing a Palestinian state in the occupied territories. That state would also be conditional on the Palestinian Authority embarking on reforms to become a governing body that Palestinians consider trusting and legitimate, and Israelis consider effective.
This equation is full of “what ifs” and “conditionals” that seem highly unlikely today. As the Gaza war ends and both Israelis and Palestinians rack up the terrible costs of not having a durable peaceful solution and ponder whether they want more of the same or a radical departure; They may not think so.
Now that Prime Minister Netanyahu has collaborated with far-right forces to remain in power for the foreseeable future, he is likely to agree to any kind of Palestinian statehood that forces his partners to overthrow him, unless he survives politically. U.S. and Saudi officials have found that the number of deaths is extremely low. Indicate otherwise. As a result, the U.S. and Saudi Arabia are considering finalizing an agreement and submitting it to Congress, with the condition that Saudi Arabia normalize relations with Israel as soon as the Israeli government is ready to meet Saudi and U.S. conditions. .
However, no decision has been made. With Israel in such turmoil today, and the entire world seemingly in turmoil, normalizing relations with Saudi Arabia, the world’s most powerful nation, has long-term implications. We know that it is impossible to get the Israeli people to actually consider the political and economic benefits that come with it. Influential Islamic and Arab states.
But hopefully, once the fighting ends permanently and all Israeli hostages are able to return, Israel will hold new elections. And perhaps, just maybe, the choice for Israelis will not be Bibi or no Bibi, but between Bibi and a reliable path to peace with Saudi Arabia and the Palestinians.
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