President Biden said Friday that he expected Iran to attack Israel “sooner.” [rather] Later” is in retaliation for the April 1 attack that killed seven Quds Force operatives in Damascus, Syria. U.S. intelligence agencies are observing signs that Iran is preparing for an attack, officials said, and estimates on Friday suggested an attack could occur within 24 to 48 hours. Biden’s message to Tehran was “stop it.”
The United States is moving in two directions to move this crisis away from a cycle of destructive escalation. On the military front, both the United States and Israel emphasize defenses that can neutralize Iranian attacks. But Israeli and U.S. officials have warned that a successful large-scale attack by Iran or its proxies could trigger an attack spiral that could eventually involve the United States.
Israel has the world’s best air defense systems, and U.S. officials expect Israel to be able to shoot down Iranian drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles (three of the most likely forms of attack). Israel’s defenses will be supplemented by anti-missile systems from the US destroyers that have flown into the region, as well as aircraft carriers and other forces already on the ground.
The Biden team warned Iran about the dangers of overreach in a message sent through the Swiss embassy in Tehran this week. Administration officials also asked diplomats from China, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Iraq to send a similar signal to Iranian leaders.
By Wednesday, Iran had responded through Switzerland that it did not want a confrontation with the United States. The Iranian government is sending the same message through China and other countries that are communicating the message.
“Iran will have to respond, but it will be contained,” one source described Iran’s message sent through diplomatic channels. But U.S. officials worry that this reassurance is unreliable, and that once a direct conflict begins, it could take an unpredictable and dangerous course.
Tensions within the administration were palpable Friday as the window opened to expected Iranian actions. The large-scale war that the White House has been trying to avoid since the Oct. 7 Hamas terrorist attack and Israel’s disastrous response seemed possible within hours. One Israeli official messaged me: “I hope things calm down.”
This is not a unique threat, as Israel is constantly under threat of missile attack. And Israel and Iran have been waging a secret war of assassinations and sabotage for years. But for Israelis, it’s an ominous moment.
Since the Damascus attack, the Biden administration has assumed that some form of Iranian retaliation is inevitable, but has hoped that Iran would limit its response because a direct attack by Israel or the United States could destabilize the regime. .
As Karim Sajjadpour of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace explains, Iranian leaders know there is a dilemma when considering retaliation. But if you overdo it, you can lose your head. ”
Gen. Michael E. Kurilla, the commander of U.S. Central Command, visited Israel this week to highlight the military risks that Iran could face if it launches a major attack. Centcom regularly conducts exercises with the Israel Defense Forces to demonstrate how U.S. military forces can support Israel in the event of regional conflict.
Although displays of military force are part of the US messaging strategy, behind-the-scenes diplomatic channels have also been heavily used. After Damascus, Iran sent a message through Swiss channels that the United States was responsible for the attack, the sources said. The administration immediately responded through Switzerland, denying any U.S. role and saying the U.S. government had no knowledge of Israel’s plans.
US diplomatic contacts with Iran to stop the war in Gaza include face-to-face talks. In January, the National Security Council’s Middle East director, Brett McGuirk, met with Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri Kani in Oman. The talks were proposed by Oman, which has often acted as a mediator between the two countries.
At the meeting, McGuirk warned his Iranian counterpart that the U.S. Navy would retaliate if Yemen’s Iranian-backed Houthi rebels continued to attack ships in the Red Sea. There was another attack by the Houthis the night after the meeting, and the United States responded to the warning with military action, with attacks on Centcom continuing almost daily.
The Biden administration believes it has restored deterrence by attacking Iranian proxies in Iraq and Syria that were targeting U.S. forces. Officials say such proxy attacks against U.S. military targets stopped after a missile attack on Baghdad in February that killed a Kataib Hezbollah commander who had planned attacks on U.S. forces.
Regime officials continue to preach the gospel of an end to the war in Gaza and other regional violence. The White House is hopeful that if Iran fights back, the tide of violence will subside in this crisis. But by Friday, no one seemed to have heeded the message, and a dangerous new round appeared to be about to begin.
