A courtesy visit from Indonesia’s defense minister, who will become president of Indonesia in a few months, will take on a slightly different meaning.
Many international leaders have already congratulated President-elect Prabowo Subianto, even though his opponents are still challenging his election victory. Chinese President Xi Jinping invited Prabowo to visit Beijing as the next president. Prabowo also visited Japan and Malaysia. What was the significance of Mr. Prabowo’s visits to these countries for his legitimacy as the next president and his future foreign policy?
There were several possible explanations. First, Prabowo (who is still President Joko Widodo’s defense minister) is confident that influential countries will recognize him as the next president, despite an ongoing challenge to his election victory in the Constitutional Court. Perhaps they wanted to show the Indonesian people that they were there.
China, Japan visit Indonesia’s ‘major diplomatic coup’ against Prabowo
China, Japan visit Indonesia’s ‘major diplomatic coup’ against Prabowo
China is a rising economic and technological superpower, Japan is a US ally with economic influence in Indonesia as well, and Malaysia is Indonesia’s “blood brother” (Saudara Serampun) share common interests, including strong support for the Palestinian people and their position on EU deforestation regulations that affect palm oil exports.
Meeting with foreign leaders could give Prabowo more legitimacy by showing that he is already recognized by them as Indonesia’s next president.
Second, Mr. Prabowo likely still maintains good relations with Mr. Widodo (also known as Mr. Jokowi) and intended to send a strong signal to domestic and international audiences that he would continue his development policies. Prabowo may also have wanted to counter growing rumors of a rift with Jokowi over his potential influence in the new government.
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Indonesia’s new leader Prabowo Subianto meets with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing
Indonesia’s new leader Prabowo Subianto meets with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing
For a Chinese audience in particular, Prabowo may have wanted to promote friendly relations with China so that the two countries could continue to cooperate in trade and economic areas. Jokowi’s foreign policy is very friendly towards China, and Prabowo wants Beijing to know he will move in the same direction when he takes office in October.
Prabowo said during the meeting that Xi’s policies would build on what Jokowi had already achieved.
“I’m determined to take advantage of everything he has. [Jokowi’s] Outcomes as the foundation of my program. I fully support close and high-quality relations between our two countries. [China] And Indonesia,” Prabowo said.
Prabowo and Chinese Defense Minister Dong Jun also discussed bilateral cooperation in officer training, military equipment and industry. However, specific details were not disclosed.
Prabowo’s visit coincided with China’s seeming growing popularity in Indonesia. The ongoing war in Gaza has clearly turned Indonesians against US foreign policy actions, and ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute’s latest Southeast Asia Situation Survey 2024 shows that regional elites’ perceptions of China are significantly different. Changes are shown.
When asked, “If ASEAN is forced to align with one of its strategic rivals, which one should it choose?” 73.2% of Indonesian respondents chose China, while 26.8% preferred the United States. It remained at %. This is a significant change from 2023, when 53.7% of Indonesian respondents chose China and 46.3% chose the US side.
Prabowo’s visit to China would have sent a different signal had he not subsequently visited Japan. Although Prabowo was not formally invited to Tokyo, he may have wanted to demonstrate Indonesia’s non-alignment or “free and active” foreign policy by visiting Japan, an ally of the United States. do not have. He met with Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and Defense Minister Minoru Kihara and discussed economic, defense and security cooperation. The content of this visit was a little more specific, with the Japanese side promising to provide a large patrol boat and military equipment.
Mr Prabowo’s visit to Malaysia may be aimed at strengthening political support from Indonesia’s Muslim community, including those who did not vote for him in February. Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim welcomed him on his courtesy visit. Mr. Anwar even hinted that both men had been “subjected to various challenges” on their way to the pinnacle of political power in their respective countries. Malaysia and Indonesia share strong views in support of the Palestinian people and call for an end to the violence in Gaza.
Looking ahead, Indonesia will likely strengthen its cooperation with China, Japan, and, in a different form, the United States. According to a survey conducted by the Indonesian National Research and Innovation Agency from September 2022 to July 2023, it is clear that while China has a large influence on the Indonesian economy, the United States has a large influence on Indonesia’s national defense and security issues. Became. This is evidenced by the fact that Indonesia relies primarily on military equipment purchased from Western countries. The annual joint exercises between U.S. and Indonesian military personnel under the Garuda Shield are an example of the cooperation Indonesia lacks regarding China. Indonesia recently signed a US$13.9 billion deal with the US to procure 24 new F-15EX fighter jets to upgrade its aging military air fleet.
Indonesia’s Prabowo congratulated by China’s Xi and US’ Blinken on his poll victory
Indonesia’s Prabowo congratulated by China’s Xi and US’ Blinken on his poll victory
Once in office, Prabowo may reconsider how best to shape Indonesia’s direction vis-à-vis the two superpowers. After meeting with Mr. Xi, Mr. Prabowo reportedly hopes to strengthen cooperation with China to develop his military equipment and Indonesia’s arms industry. In his speech at CSIS Jakarta during his presidential campaign, Prabowo said that in anticipation of growing global uncertainty, Indonesia should continue to pursue an active and independent foreign policy based on its national interests. He said that.
In summary, Prabowo’s trip to three countries was less about foreign policy and more about cementing his domestic legitimacy as the next president, but it was not without future implications.
