Either way, the drone and missile attacks make it clear that Iran lacks the means to mount any significant conventional countermeasures to Israeli power. And the Iranian government is acutely aware of this.
No one can deny that the footage of hundreds of projectiles being launched into the air was an impressive and frightening sight. But the fact that he achieved not a single goal of obvious strategic value is telling. Despite its stated intention to destroy Israel, this was Tehran’s first military attack against the Jewish state, and it was apparently easily thwarted. Numerous reports indicate that Iran itself engaged in advanced intelligence sharing ahead of the attack, giving the United States, Israel and other allies ample opportunity to prepare for the onslaught. This would suggest that Iran did not want to maximize damage to Israeli assets and provoke a larger conflict.
The clear message seems to be that the regime is weak despite its rampage. Iran’s economy is in tatters and the government has no reliable remedy for its people’s plight. Protests against the clerical system have increased in recent years.
Less obvious is the regime’s fear of conflict spreading over Iranian territory. Iran is not ready to fight a direct and long-term war with Israel. By way of background, Iran, with a population of about 90 million people, spent about $7 billion on its military in 2022. Israel, a country of about 9 million people, spent more than $23 billion. With the value of Iran’s currency falling (it hit an all-time low after the weekend’s attacks), it’s hard to imagine how the country can keep up with Israel’s military might.
But equally important is the fact that since the end of its devastating eight-year war with Iraq in 1988, the Islamic Republic has been able to keep the country largely safe from outside military attack. . This is one of the few claims the administration can make to the public about its success. But suddenly, and ironically, if it wanted to avoid provocation, its promise of continued domestic security feels very tenuous.
So why go on strike in the first place?
This was not a simple, unprovoked act of aggression. It should be remembered that this airstrike was a response to an Israeli attack on Iranian diplomatic facilities in Syria that killed the top commander and several officers of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. In recent months, and indeed years, Israel has assassinated a number of Iranian military personnel and nuclear scientists, and generally caused significant damage to Iranian assets without any significant consequences.
Iranian leaders were shaken by the killings of military leaders and felt they had to respond with a show of strength. Failure to do so would be a sign of helplessness to Israel and Iran’s Arab adversaries, as well as to a rebellious domestic population that increasingly wants an end to the theocracy.
Whether it was designed to cause damage or not, the result was a spectacular failure.
Don’t get me wrong. This does not mean that Iran is no longer a threat. But the threat it poses is not the one we usually assume. Democracies need to prepare for the kind of personalized terror that Iran has used since its inception against many people it has deemed a threat to regime power. Iranian dissidents, human rights activists, former regime officials, diplomats, and journalists, including myself, are all targets of the Islamic Republic’s malign intentions.
Abductions and assassinations, which are unpredictable and cheap compared to military operations, are far more likely to occur within days or weeks than Iran’s desire for a violent war with heavy domestic casualties. seems to be expensive.
The Biden administration recognizes that retaliation by Israel would be orders of magnitude stronger than anything the Iranian government could muster, but would very likely result in Iran unleashing these asymmetric tactics, which would not be in the U.S. interest. are doing. This is why President Biden wisely declared that the United States would not participate in any Israeli offensive action against Iran.
It remains to be seen whether Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will follow Biden’s advice. But Iran’s most costly mistake may have been in launching an unprecedented attack on Israeli soil, relinquishing control over what happens next. Israel will decide, but the prospects for restraint look bleak.
