Population declines in more than 1,100 counties slowed due to immigration from 2020 to 2023, according to Census estimates. In 131 of those cases, the number exceeded overall population growth. Demographic realities cast immigration in a different light, not as a burden but as an opportunity. In other words, it is a powerful tool to lift up vast areas of America that prosperity has left behind.
It will require smart policy and political will, neither of which Washington has in abundance, but Texas Gov. Greg Abbott’s idea to bus immigrants and cause political pain in blue jurisdictions may be put to good use without even realizing it. Rekindle economic development in sparsely populated cities like Buffalo, Akron, and Detroit that have struggled to keep up with the economic transformation of the past 30 years.
However, a town that has fallen into a predicament that has lost its economic rationale may not recover even if it adds more people. If people move, it’s mainly because their jobs are gone. Still, for traditional industrial cities on the brink of decline, halting population decline is essential to avoid falling into a downward spiral.
There is precedent in the form of refugee resettlement programs. Troubled cities in upstate New York, for example, have benefited greatly from the thousands of refugees who have settled in communities along the Erie Canal. So much so that cities are trying to tempt them.
Depopulation has a negative impact on the economy. Home prices will soar, local tax revenues will fall, the workforce will shrink, businesses will go bankrupt or exit, and schools will close. “Population decline makes everything harder,” said John Lettieri of the Economic Innovation Group. “To a first approximation, the problem would be alleviated if there were more people of working age.”
There will be an initial cost. Shuttered schools will need to be renovated. Local services may be burdened at first. But in addition to providing labor, immigrants can also help older residents left behind in these places who need help with tasks such as cooking and shopping.
Immigration will increase local demand and tax revenue. Many people will start small businesses. Initial support, perhaps from state funds or immigrant savings, could help build a future in places where it seems impossible to build one now. “For the region, that might not be a bad bet,” said Enrico Moretti of the University of California. And from an immigrant perspective, legacy cities have one important advantage: affordable and affordable housing.
But this is not how immigration plays out today. Asylum seekers tend to head to large urban centers, where there are more jobs and similar immigrant populations, rather than the sleepy central cities. They do not enjoy the support given to resettled refugees by governments that cover short-term costs and make refugees attractive to local jurisdictions. From New York to Denver, where so many immigrants have come courtesy of Mr. Abbott, mayors tend to perceive immigration as a fiscal disaster.
Giovanni Peri, who studies the economic impact of immigration at the University of California, Davis, says there may be a way to get around this challenge by taking advantage of the nation’s hot labor market, even without federal aid. suggests. State governments’ resettlement plans for asylum seekers could attract businesses to selected communities by guaranteeing a reliable pool of workers. Communities may compete to participate in the program. The prospect of stable work without the need for federal subsidies that distort the geographic distribution of the workforce would be a powerful incentive for immigrants themselves.
Of course, for this to work, asylum seekers would need to be confident that they can stay and work. Cities and businesses are unlikely to take a chance on asylum seekers who may be found ineligible to remain and forced to leave the country or possibly work illegally after a year.
But the reward is worth the challenge. Either way, faster asylum processing is needed to address the backlog in immigration courts, which has soared to 3 million cases. If politicians made even rudimentary changes to the system, and if more local governments realized the opportunities in front of them, border communities, struggling rustbelt towns, and large cities overflowing with asylum seekers could All parties have the potential to win, including in cities.
