When President Biden meets with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and Philippine President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. at the White House on Wednesday, the two leaders will focus on shared interests and principles such as freedom of navigation and the rule of law. We are planning to introduce this new Tripartite Alliance, which has won the following. , is not directed at any particular country. But the truth is clear. As China’s desire for power and territory grows, allies in the Indo-Pacific are banding together to seek U.S. support.
For the Biden team, the summit marks the culmination of years of efforts to build a new group of allies in Asia. The two leaders already held talks with the leaders of the Quad (US, Japan, Australia, India), AUKUS (Australia, UK, US), Japan, and South Korea at Camp David last year. This latest arrangement is also known internally as JAROPUS (Japan, the Republic of the Philippines, and the United States), an acronym coined by Rahm Emanuel, the U.S. ambassador to Japan, but which has not yet been fully popularized. Is not …
“The Indo-Pacific boils down to two strategic visions,” Emanuel told me in an interview. “One is that this is China’s neighborhood, and China sets the rules. The other is that the United States is a durable Pacific power and can bet for the long term. The U.S. version is becoming more popular.”
In the long run, a common urge among countries to oppose Chinese aggression will not be enough to sustain this momentum. Unless the United States improves the investment and trade elements of its Indo-Pacific strategy, Asian allies will eventually turn back to China out of economic necessity. But for now, Xi’s bullying has prompted neighboring countries to seek greater U.S. involvement and cooperation.
“My message to Xi Jinping is, ‘Don’t change,'” Emanuel said, somewhat playfully. “Keep it going at home and in your neighborhood. All of his support is appreciated.”
The background to the talks is the tense moderate boiling crisis currently occurring in the South China Sea. The Chinese government claims ownership of about 90% of this vital waterway, through which a third of the world’s shipping traffic passes each year. For years, the Chinese government has harassed and threatened ships near disputed islands and geographic features it claims as its territory. Recently, China’s tactics have become increasingly dangerous.
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Chinese Coast Guard vessels have fired water cannons and rammed Philippine vessels attempting to deliver supplies to the Second Thomas Reef, part of the Spratly Islands. The Philippine military has occupied the reef and is living in a dilapidated ship that the country intentionally left there in 1999. The issue is so salient in the Philippines that it has pushed Marcos, who came to power in 2022 with support from the Chinese government, into the Western camp.
Japan, which has territorial disputes with China, has already provided the Philippines with ships, radar and other technology to help patrol its waters. Currently, ahead of the summit, the three allies and Australia have launched joint naval patrols in the South China Sea. Tokyo and Manila are also finalizing an agreement that would allow Japanese troops to be temporarily stationed in the Philippines alongside U.S. troops there.
Chinese state media has criticized the move as provocative and destabilizing. Mr Marcos’ break with China has also drawn the ire of domestic critics, including his own sister. But he said our country could only stand up to China with the support of allies such as the United States and Japan, and said the best way to persuade President Xi to curb aggression was to show strength. He’s right on both counts.
“The battle for deterrence is intensifying in the South China Sea, with the Philippines at the forefront.” Patrick Cronin, Asia-Pacific Security Chair at the Hudson Institute, told me. “And all of this has a big impact on the Taiwanese scenario.”
In conversations with officials from both countries, their first question was always, “What would Donald Trump do if he was re-elected?” No one really knows, but given President Trump’s actions during his last term, allies in Asia have reason to be concerned. President Trump withdrew the United States from the Trans-Pacific Partnership. He threatened to withdraw U.S. troops unless Japan and South Korea paid more money to keep them there. He “fell in love” with North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un.
Trump had good relations with then-Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and then-Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, but both leaders have now passed away. Many Trump administration officials who worked to strengthen alliances in Asia will not return. The only sure bet for President Trump’s second term is to bet on unpredictability.
Washington tends to prioritize the urgent over the important. But as China’s power grows, the United States must prove that it can still play the geopolitical long game in Asia, despite two ongoing wars in Ukraine and Gaza and dysfunctional domestic politics. Must be. We hope that this week’s trilateral summit will be the beginning, not the end, of that effort.
