So I asked my Post Opinion colleagues Perry Bacon and Ted Johnson. Can President Biden maintain the Democratic coalition?
Alexi McCammond: Is all this talk about black voters fleeing Biden exaggerated? I think this reflects the broader mood of this election – general dissatisfaction with Biden as a president and a 2024 candidate – but I don’t think dissatisfaction with Biden necessarily implies support for Donald Trump.
Ted Johnson: I agree. Disapproval of Biden or the direction of the party does not necessarily translate into a vote for Trump. It may increase Trump’s support a little among black people, but the outcome of the election will be determined by black voter turnout rather than black voter approval rating.
Perry Bacon: I worry that this argument distorts reality. Trump will, at best, get 25% of black voters. Probably much less than that. (In that scenario, about 7% of Trump voters were black.) Biden could lose even with 75% black support instead of 90%. So this matters. But Trump will win primarily because the largest racial group (whites) favors him. Biden’s problems cannot be blamed on blacks.
Alexi: Recently, the Biden-Harris campaign has leaned into Trump’s racism, urging black voters in particular to “vote for us to get rid of Trump’s racist and harmful policies.” Is this persuasive? Some black voters say they feel like Democrats are pressuring them to “save” the country from Trump, but they already did so in 2020.
Perry: I don’t think the message that “Democrats got things done” about funding historically black colleges and lowering black unemployment will work. I don’t deny that those things are true. I just don’t get much satisfaction out of polls, and I don’t get much satisfaction out of talking to friends and family. Maybe the message that “Trump is crazy and racist” is the best, but maybe not as good as it was in 2020.
Ted: Black people are not responsible for defending democracy. Democracy is a means to ensure equality. And as Perry says, it’s not enough to follow through on campaign promises. He appointed a black woman to the Supreme Court, but egg Against Wade The bill was overturned, affirmative action was repealed, and even as the policy victories pile up, a growing number of voters are unsure whether Biden can deliver the America he promised.
Perry: Also, I think it’s worth breaking this down: Black voters under 40 seem to be less interested in either candidate. Black men seem to be significantly more tolerant of Trump than black women.
Alexi: Yes, that’s true: Republicans see a clear opportunity among black men and younger black voters, who tend to be more conservative than older black voters.
Perry: So it feels like it’s one thing that people don’t vote, and another that people support Trump (again with the proviso that a group where 80% vote for you is still pretty good!!).
Ted: My sense is that there is no policy agenda Biden can put in place that would keep turnout at 2020 levels. But there is also a small group of black pragmatists and older conservatives who think the Democratic Party has moved too far to the left, and while Trump is tapping into the latter, Biden is having a hard time turning them out.
Alexi: Now, I have two questions for you all about the VP: (1) If Trump picks Sen. Tim Scott (R-Lausanne), will that make a big difference in his relationship with black voters? (2) Is Biden effectively using/promoting VP Harris?
Perry: I don’t think Scott will mean much. He’s a conservative black man. I think that demographic is already favorable to Trump. But his selection will make the media more careful about portraying Trump as a racist, which will appeal to all voters, including black ones.
Alexi: Oh, that’s a really clever point, Perry, and it’s sad because it definitely happens.
Perry: I think Harris is being used as a voice for progressives and the base, and that makes sense. I liked that Biden hinted at Harris being a possible presidential candidate. Personally, I’ve lost interest in Biden since his Gaza policy. So making this a vote for Harris (which, rightly or wrongly, I don’t really associate with her) would be beneficial for me, and maybe for other black voters too.
Ted: As for the first question, I would have said yes a year ago. I don’t think so now. I agree with Perry that Scott’s audition for the vice presidential nomination worked against black voters, but for those willing to give Trump a chance, Scott would be a bulwark against accusations of racism. As for the second question, I think Harris is doing her job well in the campaign, but the reaction to her will be different than the reaction to Barack Obama. She just can’t mobilize voters the way Obama did.
Alexi: It’s hard to match Obama’s swagger!
🙅🏽♀️🙅🏽♀️🙅🏽♀️
Dan Baltz of The Washington Post expressed some unease about whether Biden could win back the support of black voters. He wrote:
“While the validity of some of the current polls is rightly questioned, it’s impossible to say for sure that Trump won’t turn out with black voters in November, especially in such a volatile political climate. Add in the possibility that black adults who only occasionally vote may simply stay home or vote for a third-party candidate, and it’s clear why the Biden campaign is so intent on focusing on these voters.”
In an interview with Fox & Friends, radio host Charlaman Tha God spoke about the criticism Biden received after delivering a commencement speech at Morehouse College. He offered this advice to Biden:
“If I were President Joe Biden and I was getting the kind of backlash I got from the Morehouse students, I would be talking to them, not talking down to them. … They spend so much time telling America how terrible Donald Trump is, but not enough time talking about what they think President Biden has done well.
But let’s not forget the long list of derogatory things Trump has said about black people over the years, as well as the many unfounded comments he has made about what he’s done for the black community. U.S. News & World Report has put together a helpful list here.
This week, 4 years ago
It was at this point in 2020 that the criminal justice reform movement began to take shape following the killing of George Floyd in Minneapolis. It was also around this time that officials in cities like Washington, D.C., Oregon, New York, and Minnesota scrambled to respond to growing calls from activists to cut police budgets.
- Looking for a chilling read? Karen Tumulty reports on how the Texas Republican Party has gone haywire. Let’s go deeper.
- What is the power of saying no? Los Angeles Times contributor Kellie Carter Jackson explored how Black Americans’ refusal to accept injustice has shaped our nation’s history. Please read this.
- If Biden goes on trial, will Republicans question a conviction? USA Today columnist Nicole Russell said it’s unfortunate that conservatives even have to answer the question. Find out why.
