Admittedly, it’s not an easy time to practice trust-building. The current mistrust between China and America’s military intentions is deep. Gen. Anthony Cotton, commander of all U.S. nuclear forces, suggested to Congress in March that China’s rapid nuclear expansion showed that the country’s no-first-use policy could no longer be trusted. The Pentagon said in an October report that despite China’s rhetoric, in the event of an existential crisis for Xi’s government, such as defeat in a war with Taiwan, Beijing would first resort to nuclear weapons anyway. I wrote that I might consider using it. It also remains unclear how exactly China would react if its nuclear forces were attacked during a conflict. Will that trigger the Chinese government to use nuclear weapons? The Pentagon said in its report that it was “unknown.”
Discussing these issues may help China and the United States understand and appreciate the factors that go into developing the details of each other’s nuclear policies. The process of dialogue and diplomacy itself can help China hear the concerns of the United States, and vice versa. Given the widening chasm of fear and suspicion between the two countries over Taiwan, there is no better time for the two countries to sit down and discuss what constitutes a credible no-first-use commitment.
Perhaps a clear no-first-use pledge may end up being impossible. These talks may not result in a consensus agreement, and even if one is reached, it will be impossible to verify and will be more symbolic than substantive. But that doesn’t mean the U.S. government shouldn’t accept Beijing’s invitation. In the increasingly fraught world of nuclear diplomacy, discussions about one treaty could be a stepping stone to another. New START, the only remaining major arms control agreement between the United States and Russia, builds on the original START I signed two decades ago.
Under Mr. Xi, China appears to have left behind a policy of minimum deterrence. If the Biden administration is serious about arms control, it is time to seek common ground with Beijing to forge a new agreement for a more secure future.
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