By taking this overly cautious decision, Biden is buying Russian President Vladimir Putin time to wait for a change in U.S. leadership and policy. Biden would rather let Ukraine regain the upper hand before the November election, which could also improve his own political prospects.
In one of the most substantive parts of Thursday’s press conference after the summit, Biden defended his lack of intention to lift restrictions that currently ban Ukraine from using U.S. weapons against targets inside Russia, with only a few exceptions. He said the U.S. government decides “on a day-to-day basis” which Russian targets Ukrainian forces can strike.
“That’s the logical thing to do,” Biden said. “If [Zelensky] “If Russia had the ability to attack Moscow or the Kremlin, would that make sense? No.”
But Biden’s example is misguided because Zelensky has not asked for permission to attack Moscow. In a speech at the Ronald Reagan Institute this week, Zelensky said Ukraine needs permission to attack Russian air bases within 500 kilometers (about 300 miles) of the Ukrainian border. Every day, Russian jets fire guided bombs from these bases into Ukrainian territory with no punishment, Zelensky said. Russia has thousands of these bombs, and no amount of air defenses can keep up. The only way to stop this tactic is to attack the air bases.
Zelenskyy also explained why Biden’s caution about escalating tensions with Russia may not be so “logical” after all. Before Russia’s recent attempted attack in Kharkiv, Biden administration officials worried that allowing Ukraine to attack targets linked to that particular battle would be too provocative and escalate the conflict. But the opposite proved to be true: Ukraine repelled the invasion, and Kharkiv was saved.
“Just imagine how much more we could achieve if all restrictions were lifted. … We are waiting for this step,” Zelensky said. “If we get this issue under control, our children will live.”
Indeed, the NATO summit provided Ukraine with a lot of new weaponry, including air defense systems. The Washington summit declaration included language promising Ukraine an “irreversible” path to NATO membership, if not a formal invitation. U.S. officials also announced this week that long-awaited F-16 fighter jets would soon arrive in Ukraine. Zelensky made it clear that while he was grateful for all these items, his country still didn’t think it was enough. For example, he said, 10 or 20 fighter jets would not be able to protect Ukraine’s skies from the hundreds Russia could field.
Biden’s explanation Thursday also contradicted the arguments his own officials made when they initially gave Ukraine limited authorization to strike targets inside Russia. At the time, national security adviser Jake Sullivan told the PBS NewsHour that it “makes sense” to allow Ukraine to strike back against forces attacking it, regardless of which side of the border they are on.
The Biden administration’s hardline stance on the issue follows a familiar pattern: The White House opposed sending weapons or capabilities to Ukraine, then only changed its mind after months of public and Congressional pressure. Each time, U.S. officials warned of the outbreak of World War III (a legitimate concern, of course), but so far each time Putin’s threats have been revealed to be bluffs.
What’s different this time is that Putin has good reason to believe that U.S. policy toward Ukraine may change soon if former President Donald Trump wins the November election. The day before the NATO summit was to begin, Putin bombed a main children’s hospital in Kiev, part of a series of attacks that killed 43 people and wounded about 200. This was a signal to NATO countries that Putin had no intention of negotiating until then, Zelensky said.
“Americans are waiting for November,” Zelensky said, “and President Putin is also waiting for November, killing and destroying so he’ll be ready for whatever happens in November.”
How the Ukraine war will affect the election situation is not Biden’s top concern, but he may consider it, as he has touted his foreign policy prowess on the campaign trail. In introducing Zelensky at the Reagan Institute event, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) foreshadowed the Republicans’ likely natural criticism of Biden’s Ukraine policy in November. “Ukrainians don’t need to fret, hesitate or waver. They need the tools to defend themselves, to impose costs on aggressors, and to negotiate from a position of strength,” McConnell said.
If the Trump administration tries to pressure Ukraine to negotiate with Russia next year, Ukraine should exert as much pressure as possible. For that reason alone, the Biden team should give Kiev freedom of action. Lifting restrictions on Ukraine would save lives and also make political sense.
Biden likes to say the US will support Ukraine “as much as it takes.” As he, Zelensky, and Putin all know, the reality is he may only have six months to keep that promise.
