Across the English Channel, Chancellor Rishi Sunak should have called an election by next year but chose to do it on July 4. He now looks certain to be ousted on Thursday, with opinion polls suggesting the Conservative party could finish with the fewest seats since its founding in 1834. After 14 years in power and five prime ministers in eight years, the Conservative party has worn out its welcome and has run a sclerotic election campaign that has only highlighted its own divisions.
On this side of the Atlantic, Biden called for the fastest presidential debate in history. His team thought that going head-to-head with Donald Trump would ease concerns about Biden’s age and physical fitness while also drawing attention to the two-way contest in front of voters. The president’s advisers got their way, with microphones muted and no audience in the studio. But despite a week of preparation and rest, Biden’s performance sparked calls for the race to end.
Paris, London and Washington have different political cultures and institutions, and different peoples. But they share a common geopolitical weather system. The domestic politics of these three nuclear powers are more intertwined than they might appear. That is why the June 2016 Brexit referendum foreshadowed Trump’s victory five months later.
Though most Britons now regret leaving the EU, anti-establishment sentiment still permeates the Western world. France, Britain and the United States are reeling from the pandemic, inflation, Russia’s all-out invasion of Ukraine and strong anti-immigrant sentiment. That’s why Keir Starmer, the Labour leader who is expected to become Britain’s next prime minister, has attacked Sunak from the right on the issue, calling him “the most liberal prime minister we’ve ever had on immigration.”
Given these headwinds, Biden’s resilience and durability in the polls so far has been remarkable — a product of a highly polarizing Trump environment combined with the strength of the U.S. economy, especially the job market. But his performance in the presidential debates highlighted his limitations.
A CBS News/YouGov poll conducted last week found that 72% of registered voters said Biden “is not in good mental or cognitive health to serve as president,” up from 65% a few weeks earlier. By comparison, 49% said the same about Trump last week. A post-debate Morning Consult poll found that 60% of voters believe Biden should be replaced as the Democratic nominee, including 47% of Democrats and 59% of independents.
For Biden to win, he will need to convince millions of people who don’t think he is fit to be president to vote for him. What’s happening in France and the UK shows that this is not as easy as he thinks. Instead of facing up to this harsh reality, Biden’s family is reportedly blaming his staff. Loyalists scorn those who don’t stand by the president as pessimists and doomsayers.
Rep. Lloyd Doggett (R-Texas) on Tuesday became the first sitting Democrat to call for Biden to drop out of the race, publicly saying what many continue to express privately. But the president has a light schedule this week; he did not answer questions after making brief remarks Monday night. ABC News reported that Biden will give his first interview since the debate with George Stephanopoulos on Friday. That interview comes eight days after Biden’s awkward performance. The White House announced that Biden would hold a news conference during the NATO summit, which won’t take place until next week.
If Biden continues his campaign and Republicans take control of the White House and both houses of Congress within four months, Democrats will regret not thinking more carefully now, when such a disappointing outcome could have been avoided.
