Anwar indirectly criticized the expanding US strategic involvement in the South China Sea, stressing that “we should not engage with parties” other than China and ASEAN member states “so as not to complicate the issue.”
This is the Philippines Strategic DirectionThis includes strengthening security cooperation with the West as a counterweight to China.
It’s hard to overstate the internal divisions ASEANIn this article, leaders often seem to live in parallel, geopolitical worlds.
Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim and Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. (right) stand across from each other across the empty Myanmar seat during the 26th ASEAN-Japan Summit in Jakarta, Indonesia, on September 6. Photo: Reuters
The combination of different strategic priorities, domestic political dynamics and consensus-based decision-making processes has led to ASEAN’s Centrality complicating efforts to negotiate the best diplomatic responses to maritime disputes.
Anwar’s intervention was prompted by Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. Shangri-La Dialogue A Singaporean diplomat said its “illegal, coercive, aggressive and deceitful acts continue to violate our sovereignty, sovereign rights and jurisdiction” in the South China Sea, an apparent reference to China.
Over the past year, the Philippine and Chinese navies have clashed multiple times over disputed territories, most notably in Second Thomas Schollhas set up a de facto Philippine military facility on the stranded Sierra Madre.
Manila has accused Beijing of deploying water cannons to disrupt and intimidate Philippine patrol and supply ships, leading to the arrest of several military personnel. I was injured.
Marcos Jr. also warned in Singapore that “China’s decisive influence over the security situation and economic development of the region is an immutable fact” and that “the stabilizing presence of the United States is crucial to peace in the region.”
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Why is the Philippines cooperating with the United States after building long-standing close ties with China under the Duterte administration?
Why is the Philippines cooperating with the United States after building long-standing close ties with China under the Duterte administration?
President Marcos has orientated foreign policy as a defense against a much more powerful China, vowing that “Filipinos will not succumb” and signaling his determination to stay the course by deepening his country’s wide-ranging network of security partnerships, including tripartite cooperation with the United States. And Japanand quadrilaterals “Squad” This includes Australia.
Still, he stressed that the Philippines has no interest in aligning itself fully with the West in a new Cold War because picking sides “is never a choice” and, above all, because both China and the United States are “important” to peace and stability in Asia.
President Marcos, whose father’s administration was a founding member of ASEAN, consistently called for strengthening solidarity and cooperation among the countries of the region. “Minilateral” cooperation With like-minded countries Vietnam.
There are several reasons to be skeptical of ASEAN member states’ cooperation in the South China Sea dispute. First, ASEAN’s unanimous decision-making makes it extremely difficult to agree on a common language and mutually acceptable legal regime for effectively managing maritime disputes. This is Decades of Negotiations No progress with China on the South China Sea issue code of conduct.
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China and ASEAN renew agreement on Code of Conduct in South China Sea
China and ASEAN renew agreement on Code of Conduct in South China Sea
More importantly, ASEAN member states have very different threat perceptions of China. Malaysia, for example, has largely stabilized maritime tensions with China; develop one-sidedly Energy resources in the disputed waters will stabilize in 2020. This stabilization is largely due to Malaysia’s diplomatic pushback against U.S.-led security initiatives in the region. The most notable is The Oakes nuclear submarine deal between the US, UK and Australia.
As for Vietnam, trade and investment relations with China are becoming more active. “Color Revolution” Domestically, the rapprochement between communist regimes is the most pronounced since the Cold War.
In contrast, the Philippines’ relationship with China has been driven by growing frustration over its longstanding alliance with the United States and the former Duterte administration’s largely fruitless strategic flirtation with Beijing, as well as its potentially damaging trade disputes. “Secret Agreement” According to reports, the agreement was concluded with China at the expense of the Philippines’ sovereign rights and claims in the South China Sea.
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Philippine Navy admiral at the center of “New Deal” furor breaks silence on alleged South China Sea deal
Philippine Navy admiral at the center of “New Deal” furor breaks silence on alleged South China Sea deal
But perhaps the biggest obstacle to a more unified and powerful ASEAN response is domestic politics. In the Philippines, Marcos Mounting pressure Surveys show that 91% of Filipinos distrust China and 76% see it as the “biggest threat,” so President Marcos should take a tougher stance against China. With his approval rating falling due to the rising cost of living, President Marcos cannot afford to be seen as weak or compromising on the maritime dispute.
Meanwhile, in Malaysia, where the Muslim majority is Growing opposition With the US standing against the West on the Gaza crisis and China positioning itself as a defender of Palestinian rights, Anwar has political incentives to be far more critical of the US than China.
Vietnam, Political turmoil within the government The uncertainty surrounding the leadership transition has hindered a more adventurous foreign policy, especially vis-Ã -vis larger powers like neighboring China. Instead, the rise of more conservative, inward-looking “security experts” in Hanoi signals strengthening party ties and shared concerns in both countries about the potentially malign influence of the West on Vietnam’s rapidly expanding middle class.
It remains unclear how Malaysia and the Philippines, let alone ASEAN as a whole, can reach an optimal agreement to strengthen the regional organization’s central role in shaping the course of the South China Sea dispute.
Richard Heydarian is a Manila-based scholar and author of Asia’s New Battleground: The United States, China, and the Struggle in the Western Pacific and the upcoming The Rise of Duterte.
