Coincidentally, NATO figures prominently as Biden increasingly argues for staying the course against his opponent, former President Donald Trump, who has expressed skepticism about the alliance’s value. Biden has rightly boasted about revitalizing and expanding the Western alliance during his term, and about rallying the West to support Ukraine after Russia’s full-scale invasion of the country in 2022. NATO members have taken more responsibility than ever for their own defense, and a record number of members have finally met their defense-spending targets. All of this is raising the price of Russian vengeance and dissuading President Vladimir Putin from moving even deeper into Europe.
But there may be another truth that Biden doesn’t seem to understand. The 81-year-old president’s determination to seek a second term despite signs that he’s not fit could increase Trump’s chances of winning and jeopardize those foreign policy successes. Biden appears to be rejecting polls that show a majority of voters doubt his ability to handle the world’s most demanding job.
A timely reminder of the importance of the US presidential election came on Monday when Russia destroyed Ukraine’s largest pediatric hospital. The largest airstrike in four months killed at least 30 people and injured more than 150. The scenes are horrifying. They should strengthen the resolve of allied leaders to respond forcefully to this unacceptable Russian aggression, using all available means.
But Trump has expressed a strange admiration for Putin. Though hidden by Biden’s ramblings, Trump offered little more than a shrug when asked during the debate whether the U.S. would stay in NATO if he won. In February, Trump claimed he had told an unnamed ally that he “might encourage them to stay in NATO.” [Russia] Regarding Ukraine, Trump has repeatedly claimed he could end the war in a day, and while no one knows what he has in mind, it has been suggested that he intends to force an unfavorable settlement on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
The Republican National Committee’s 2024 platform, adopted in Milwaukee on Monday, makes no reference to Ukraine or NATO, instead offering a general call to prevent World War III and restore peace in Europe — a stark departure from the 2016 Republican platform, which supported aiding the Ukrainian military and strengthening cooperation with NATO defense planners.
The 75th anniversary summit was meant to be a victory march on Biden’s home turf, but challenges lie ahead even as NATO looks strong for now. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, the leader of a NATO member state, made a surprise visit to Beijing on Monday, embracing Chinese leader Xi Jinping, following trips to Moscow and Kiev last week. The second round of France’s election on Sunday averted a worst-case scenario of a right-wing victory, but the rise of the right and far-left in the country could hinder President Emmanuel Macron’s foreign policy.
Biden likes to talk about the world being at a turning point. The formation of NATO in 1949 was a postwar geopolitical turning point that sharpened the lines between democracy and authoritarianism. The United States recognized Taiwan as the legitimate government of China after mainland China fell to Communism. North and South Korea each applied for UN membership. Israel ended the First Arab-Israeli War and signed armistices with Jordan, Egypt, Syria and Lebanon to ensure its survival. This postwar system, in which generations of Americans had invested so much, is now being threatened more and more systematically by Moscow, Beijing, Tehran and Pyongyang.
When history is written about the Biden administration, Biden will be credited with preserving the post-World War II world order after Trump went to great lengths to abandon American leadership. A central theme of the 2024 election is whether the principles of 1949 can endure. This week’s NATO summit, and the election in November, are about strengthening the Western ability to withstand the greatest dangers of the pre-1949 world: totalitarianism, isolationism, and protectionism. To achieve this, the continuity of American leadership is essential, but Biden himself is not so important.
