It was a big deal. Democrats, desperate to prevent former President Donald Trump from returning to the White House, began openly debating who should replace Biden as the party’s nominee. Political pundits and experts gleefully explored alternatives. They consulted polls and took mood tests. Private calls and public interviews all pointed in the same direction: Something needed to change.
There was also broad agreement on what that change would look like. While Vice President Harris’ approval ratings tend to be on par with or close to Biden’s, much of the public opinion centered on the idea that Democrats should come together at their next convention and choose a nominee who is seen as clearly more likely to win than Biden or Harris. This, the argument went, was the only way Trump wouldn’t be reelected.
But on Tuesday afternoon, CNN released a new poll that clearly contradicts these claims.
We should be very careful about reading too much into any one poll. That’s always true, especially during volatile times. But the CNN poll conducted by SSRS deserves serious consideration for several reasons. First, it was conducted entirely after the debate. Second, it is a high-quality, well-respected poll. And third, rather than establishing certainty about how the party will move forward, its findings serve to show that such certainty is unwarranted.
CNN’s last national poll was conducted in April, and Trump held a 6-point lead over Biden in a head-to-head race. In this poll, Trump holds a 6-point lead. In fact, the top-line figure is Exactly the same Same as two months ago.
Moreover, there has been no significant change in the favorability ratings of either candidate: Both Biden and Trump are beginning to be viewed more favorably by members of their respective parties than they were in April.
But one change CNN found in the poll is that Americans, including Democrats, are increasingly likely to think another candidate has a better chance of beating Trump than Biden, though when CNN asked the question in January, Democrats were already saying another candidate had a better chance.
It is a change of degree rather than a change of perspective, and the difference between the two is multiplied.
So who is that other person? CNN offered respondents a range of options, including Harris, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, California Governor Gavin Newsom (D), and Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer (D). Who is the best candidate to challenge Trump?
Harris trails by two points.
The other candidates are trailing by between 4 and 6 points in polls with a sampling error of 3.7 points. There is no clear leader, but the idea that Harris is inferior to the other candidates is not supported by the data at all.
In fact, Harris outperforms Biden across demographic groups. In the graph below, points to the left of a particular blue line represent candidates who are performing better against Trump. Notice that the solid circle (representing the difference between Harris and Trump) is consistently to the left. The exception is among men, where both candidates perform roughly the same.
Harris is clearly doing better among women, independents and non-white voters, who are also more likely to view her favorably than Biden (among those with an opinion about the candidate).
This is a strange and complicated situation, so it’s worth detailing a few points.
First, just because people are wary of Biden doesn’t mean they won’t vote for him. The CNN poll found the same dynamics at work that many other polls have found: Biden’s support is made up primarily of people who support him because they oppose Trump.
If you are going to vote to stop Trump from winning, having a more negative view of Biden or supporting someone to replace him doesn’t necessarily mean you won’t vote for him. So Biden is doing just as well against Trump now as he did two months ago.
It’s also true that it’s extremely hard to tell whether other candidates would fare better against Trump. Harris’ two-point lead is not that different from Whitmer’s five-point lead. Maybe Whitmer is a better candidate than Harris and could easily overtake Trump. This poll doesn’t tell us that, but no poll can actually do that. What this poll suggests is that there is little basis for the idea that Harris is at a disadvantage relative to other candidates.
One final consideration: as I said at the beginning: this is one poll. It’s a good poll, but different pollsters may get different results. It’s still possible that Biden could fail. It’s true that he’s walking a much tighter tightrope than he was a week ago. But this poll doesn’t reinforce the idea that he’s necessarily doomed.
Nor does it strengthen the idea that, for example, having Newsom in office would keep things favorable for Democrats through early November.
