For example: On Sunday, CBS News released a new poll of three battleground states that swung to Donald Trump in 2016 and then swung back to Joe Biden four years later. A poll conducted by YouGov found that most respondents in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin view their states’ economies fairly poorly. It’s a few percentage points better than the national economy, but not much better overall.
As expected, there were differences by party, with Democrats significantly more likely to view the national and state economies positively.
But the pollster also asked another question: How did respondents view the state’s economy under Trump? The divide is striking: On average across the three states, respondents viewed their state’s economy at least 20 percentage points more positively when Trump was president than they do now. This was driven in large part by overwhelmingly positive ratings from Republicans, but also by very positive retrospective views from independents.
Just before the 2020 election, YouGov asked voters in the same state what they thought of President Trump’s handling of the economy. This is certainly a different question than how people view their state’s economy, but it was a useful way to compare President Trump’s views before the 2020 election. On how his tenure is currently viewed.
In each state, respondents were 15 percentage points less likely to view President Trump’s economic response positively than they were this month when they said their state’s economy was doing well under Trump. A YouGov poll conducted in October 2020 aggregated party views in three states, but the state-level results of the latest poll are sufficiently similar that they reflect views on Trump in 2020 and his tenure as president. showed the biggest differences between China and past views on the economy. I’m from the Democratic Party.
On average, Democrats were 24 points more likely to tell YouGov this month that the economy was doing well under Trump than they were in October 2020 to say they supported President Trump’s economic response.
It is noteworthy that the number of employed residents in these three states in October 2020 decreased by 5 to 7 percent compared to October of the previous year due to the impact of the coronavirus pandemic. In each of these three states, employment is up at least 1% compared to October 2019.
But it’s not uncommon for polls to show that people’s views of outgoing presidents improve over time. In July, Gallup revealed that nine of the 10 presidents who preceded Biden, including President Trump, had increased their approval ratings compared to when they were in office. What’s unusual here is that former presidents are running for office after leaving office. Trump’s rise since leaving office has had a ripple effect not seen with any other president.
A recent CBS News-YouGov poll also found that Democrats are far more likely to say they’re worried about the future functioning of their democracy than they are about a strong economy. Republicans were slightly more likely to say the opposite opinion.
This is an unusual question that focuses on current politics and political concerns. This reflects Biden’s focus on the threat to democracy posed by President Trump’s possible return to power. But Biden also benefits from the fact that Americans see economic issues as less urgent than preserving democracy—even members of his own party are less likely to view the economy under his opponent as less urgent than preserving democracy. Given that he’s looking better than when he was president.
