As the meme says: Oh! good. Nevertheless,
The “something” that has been driving the dreams of Trump opponents for the past year or two is that Trump’s criminal charges will at least cause apathy among his supporters, if not a national exodus. . After the indictment arrived and boosted Trump in the Republican primary, attention shifted instead to a conviction. Certainly, if the former president is convicted on criminal charges, his support will weaken. right?
Take part in CNN’s new poll conducted by SSRS.
Respondents were asked whether they would prefer President Trump or Biden in this November’s election, and if they supported President Trump, whether they were likely to be released on bail if convicted. A quarter of Trump supporters said they might do so, or about 12% of all respondents.
here we go! There’s something! You may be thinking that, but I’m grateful for that. But consider how those views vary by age and political party. Older Trump supporters and Republicans are less likely to say “maybe.” — Please reconsider supporting him.
In a summary of the poll, CNN’s Jennifer Asiesta pointed out that voters who are “possible to bail” have many characteristics that overlap with those who are “not core Trump supporters.” They are more likely to be under 50 (most are under 50, compared to just over a third of those who support Trump regardless). They are less likely to be white. And they likely voted for Joe Biden in 2020!
Not many did, but they weren’t die-hard Trump supporters.
There are probably a lot of layers here. Trump will probably be convicted. If he does, perhaps up to a quarter of current Trump supporters, many of whom appear to be away from constituencies that typically vote Democratic, will reconsider voting for him. But according to a CNN poll, few people will vote for Biden.
The math for winning elections is not complicated. Your candidate needs one more vote than the other candidate. The deeper you go one level, the more interesting it becomes. If a voter switches from your opponent to you, that’s a net gain of 2 votes. So you have +1 vote and your opponent has -1 vote. If a voter gives up on his opponent and stays home, the net gain is his one vote. A voter’s vote for her cannot be canceled by that voter. It’s good, but only about half as good as a flip.
According to a CNN poll, four out of five people who would likely release Trump if he is convicted say they would definitely not vote for Biden. So for most of these voters, he’s a net gain of one vote instead of two. About 2% of respondents said they currently support Trump and may be released on bail if convicted, but then they may vote for Biden. Perhaps if all of these “possibilities” apply, it might be enough to shake up the nation.
But Asiesta points out that many of them probably had only loose ties to Trump to begin with. Some have been loyal to President Trump for eight years, but may have reached a point where that is no longer possible. Obviously not, but rather Biden skeptics who are helping President Trump do better in the polls than he did at this point in 2020.
Among their supporters, the old calculation works. In the abstract, they might bail out Trump. (Among those who probably won’t? Already the fifth Trump supporter who thinks he’s committed serious crimes.) What if we looped the conviction into his story? Well. Nevertheless.
