Narendra Modi: Will a coalition government turn him into a more humble leader?

Coalition governments are not new to India.

The world’s most populous democracies have some of the world’s largest coalition governments, consisting of between six and 12 parties.

The government failed to win a majority in six general elections held between 1989 and 2004. Some of these coalition governments have been particularly chaotic: eight were formed between 1989 and 1999, many of which quickly collapsed.

However, some of India’s most significant economic reforms and highest growth rates have come under coalition governments led by the Indian National Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

For the first time since 2014, India will have a coalition government without a majority on its own.

Narendra Modi of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), who would be running for a third term as prime minister, has seen his number of seats dwindle due to a resurgent opposition and now relies mainly on his two-man National Democratic Alliance (NDA) alliance to maintain his majority in parliament.

But can Modi, who has dominated politics for a decade, always ruling with a majority as the chief minister of Gujarat and as India’s prime minister, manage a coalition government?

Can he shed his domineering style, bring on board allies from across the region, and temper the growing cult of personality fuelled by his party and a friendly media for a more consensual and humble image?

Many believe it is unlikely that a coalition government will be smooth sailing for Modi.

Modi’s biggest allies are two regional parties — the Janata Dal (United) and the Telugu Desam Party (TDP), which together have 28 seats. They are led by veteran and astute leaders — Nitish Kumar and N. Chandrababu Naidu, respectively — who previously served in the BJP-led federal coalition government but resigned after differences with the ruling party, especially Modi.

In 2019, when Naidu was chief minister of Andhra Pradesh, he called his political rival Modi a “terrorist”.

Politics creates strange alliances — a fact not uncommon in India.

Coalition governments that rely on just two or three allies are particularly at risk of collapse if even one country withdraws its support.

Many believe a coalition led by Mr. Modi could contribute to a healthier democracy: They say it could weaken the prime minister’s control, decentralize governance, strengthen checks and balances, embolden the opposition and give greater independence to institutions like the bureaucracy, judiciary and media.

Atal Behari Vajpayee, a stalwart of the BJP, led a successful multi-party coalition government from 1998 to 2004. The approachable leader privatized state-owned enterprises, encouraged foreign investment, built highways, lowered trade barriers and sparked the IT revolution.

He ended a decades-old moratorium on nuclear testing, eased tensions with Pakistan and forged closer ties with the United States.

A lot of this had to do with Vajpayee’s consensual style.

But Modi’s coalition government is very different from those of the past.

Although it won 240 seats, well short of the 272 needed to form a majority, the BJP remains one of India’s most influential and powerful coalition leaders.

The Congress won 232 seats in 1991, but successfully formed minority governments in 2004 and 2009 with just 145 and 206 seats.

Moreover, Mr. Modi leads an aggressive, revamped BJP, with his close aide Amit Shah representing a redefined leadership at the top that Congress leader Shashi Tharoor describes as a “my way or nothing” approach to governing.

So far, the BJP-led coalition has put the party’s key ideological and polarising issues on the back burner to cater to the demands of its allies.

Many of the party’s policies, such as stripping away Kashmir’s autonomy and building a Ram temple, have already been achieved under Mr. Modi’s leadership. Will his allies ask him to tone down the divisive rhetoric, especially against Muslims, that he used so liberally during the election campaign?

Effective coalition politics requires collective action to act as a bloc and provide checks and balances. The key question now is on what key issues the BJP can agree with its coalition partners.

The party also promises a single personal law, the Uniform Civil Code (UCC), that would apply to all citizens regardless of religion, sex, gender or sexual orientation – something that has so far been resisted by both the country’s Hindu majority and Muslim minority.

Then there is the delicate issue of a planned redrawing of parliamentary boundaries after 2026. Richer, less populous southern states worry that Modi will expand the parliamentary divide in favour of poorer, more populous Hindu heartland states – traditionally BJP strongholds.

Modi will also have to listen to regional and state-specific demands from his allies and cater to the ambitions of their party leaders. Both the TDP and the JD(U) are demanding special status for their states, which would mean increased funding from the federal government. Media reports say the allies are also eyeing influential ministries.

Despite the economic recovery, bolstered by government spending, Modi needs to create more jobs and boost incomes for the poor and middle class. The Indian economy needs many structural reforms in agriculture, land and labor. Modi may need a consultative approach with allies to achieve these.

Many believe consensual politics may not be easy for Modi, who is used to being in the spotlight.

“Suddenly he was being asked to play a role he had never played before in his life,” says Nilanjan Mukhopadhyay, the prime minister’s biographer.

But successful politicians master the art of reform. Will India see a more humble, more consultative and more consensus-building Modi from now on?

“We have to wait and see,” said political analyst Sandeep Shastri. “We have to look at this through the lens of where we are now, not past alliances.” It will be interesting to see how things develop.