NEW DELHI (AP) — Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s coalition led with a majority of parliamentary seats in India’s general election on Tuesday, partial figures showed, but it faced a stronger challenge than expected from opposition parties rebelling against his shaky economic record and polarized politics.
Despite pre-election expectations of a landslide victory, ongoing counts show Modi’s Hindu nationalist party is unlikely to secure a majority on its own, but he is still expected to be elected for a third five-year term in the world’s largest democratic movement.
If the trend continues, it would be a shocking blow to the 73-year-old leader, who has never been in a position where he has had to rely on coalition partners to govern.
Counting more than 640 million votes cast over six weeks is expected to take a full day, meaning early figures could change.
In his decade in power, Modi has transformed India’s political landscape, propelling Hindu nationalism, once a minority movement, into the mainstream while deeply dividing the country.
Supporters see him as a self-made, strong leader who has enhanced India’s global standing. Critics and opponents say his Hindu-first politics have bred intolerance and increased inequality in what is the world’s fifth-largest and one of the fastest-growing economies.
About 10 hours after the vote count began, the Election Commission of India released a partial tally, showing that Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party was leading in 196 constituencies, winning 45 of the 543 parliamentary seats, including one unopposed. The main opposition party, the Indian National Congress, was leading in 83 constituencies, winning 15 seats.
A total of 272 seats are needed for a majority. In 2019, the BJP won 303 seats, compared with 282 in 2014, when Modi first came to power.
Modi’s party is part of the National Democratic Alliance, whose members led in 236 constituencies and won 50, according to partial tallies. The Indian National Congress is part of the Indian Union, whose members led in 211 constituencies and won 19.
The electoral commission has not released data on the percentage of votes counted.
Exit polls over the weekend had projected the NDA to win more than 350 seats.Indian markets, which hit all-time highs on Monday, closed sharply lower on Tuesday, with benchmark stock indexes NIFTY 50 and BSE Sensex both falling by more than 5 percent.
For Payal, who lives in the northern city of Lucknow and gives only her first name, the election was about the economy and the vast numbers of people in India who live in poverty.
“People are suffering. There are no jobs and children are being forced to make and sell tea on the roadside,” Payal said. “This is a big problem for us. If they don’t wake up now, when will they wake up?”
If Modi wins, he will become only the second Indian leader to retain power for a third term after the country’s first prime minister, Jawaharlal Nehru.
But if his BJP is forced to form a coalition government, the party “will be heavily dependent on the goodwill of its allies, who will likely play a key role in both policy-making and government formation and will benefit from them,” said Milan Vaishnav, director of the South Asia program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
“This will be truly uncharted territory for the people of India and for the Prime Minister,” he added.
Before Modi came to power, India had been governed by coalition governments for 30 years, with his BJP party always holding a majority on its own.
A scorching heat wave hit India as voters headed to polling stations. Temperatures were slightly cooler on Tuesday, but election officials and political parties brought in large amounts of water and set up outdoor air coolers for people waiting for the results.
Outside the BJP headquarters in New Delhi, supporters rang drums and bells as the vote counting got underway, after party workers had earlier performed a Hindu ritual.
But supporters at the Indian National Congress headquarters were in high spirits, chanting slogans praising Rahul Gandhi, the party’s campaign face.
At a press conference, Indian National Congress party leader Mallikarjun Kharge said the coalition’s strong victory was a “triumph for democracy” and a “moral and political loss” for Prime Minister Modi.
Gandhi added that these figures were a message from the people: “The poorest people of this country have protected the Constitution of India.”
After more than a decade in power, Mr. Modi’s popularity has outstripped that of his party, making parliamentary elections more and more like a presidential contest. As a result, the BJP has become increasingly reliant on Mr. Modi’s enduring brand to stay in power, and local politicians have been overshadowed even in state elections.
“Modi was not just the chief campaigner in this election, he was the only campaigner,” said Yamini Iyer, a public policy scholar.
Modi’s critics say India’s democracy is faltering as his government uses increasingly heavy-handed tactics to repress political opponents, clamp down on independent media and stifle dissent – charges the government denies and says democracy is thriving.
And economic discontent has simmered under Modi’s government: The stock market has hit record highs, billionaires have sprung up, youth unemployment has soared and only a tiny fraction of Indians are benefiting from the booming economy.
When voting began in mid-April, a confident BJP initially focused its campaign on the “Modi guarantee,” highlighting the party’s alleged economic and welfare achievements in reducing poverty. At every rally, Modi repeated that with him at the helm, India would become a developed country by 2047.
But as the election campaign has become increasingly fierce, Modi has stepped up his polarising rhetoric targeting Muslims, who make up 14 percent of the population, in what is seen as a tactic to energise his core Hindu majority voters.
The opposition Indian Alliance has attacked Modi for his Hindu nationalist politics and campaigned on issues such as unemployment, inflation and inequality.
But the broad-based coalition of more than a dozen parties has been plagued by ideological differences and defections, raising questions about its effectiveness. But it also argues it is being unfairly targeted, accusing federal agents of politically motivated raids, arrests and corruption investigations into its leaders, charges the government denies.
In the financial capital Mumbai, Mangesh Mahadeshwar was one of many people surprised by the election turn of events.
“Yesterday I thought the BJP would win more than 400 seats,” said the 52-year-old, who was following the results at the restaurant where he works. “Today it doesn’t look like that will happen. People are not as supportive of the BJP this time around.”
___
Associated Press writers David Rising in New Delhi, India, and Rafiq Maqbool in Mumbai contributed to this report.
