How is President Joe Biden working towards his re-election bid?
Only by comparing across time and space can we answer that question from the perspective of public opinion.
Let’s start with the simplest comparison point.
About two months ago, in the U.S. horse race, an average of 538 people polled said former President Donald Trump had a two-point lead over Biden.
Their average currently leads Biden by just 0.7 points. RealClearPolitics’ average shows his lead over Donald Trump by an additional three-tenths of a point.
So the race is a draw. Since the midterm elections, most races have been contested by one or two points one way or the other. But the president seems to be doing a little better than he did a few months ago.
That’s also reflected in swing state polls. In each of these seven states (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin), Mr. Biden is doing better today than he was two months ago.
In the crucial state of Pennsylvania, for example, Mr. Trump’s lead has shrunk from 3.7 points to just 1.1 points in the past two months, according to 538 people.
It’s not a huge move, but it’s a consistent move in the right direction nationally and in the states that will decide 2024.
But let’s consider another comparison. Trump currently leads the polls in all seven battleground states.
In 2020, President Biden defeated President Trump by a margin of 4.5 points nationally, winning 306 electoral votes.
During the year, Biden never trailed in the national polling average, and he never trailed in five of the battleground states. (Again, this isn’t to say he wasn’t behind in some individual polls, but it was never behind on average.)
Of course, this is a different race in a different context, and Biden won more electoral votes than he should have in 2020, but the comparison isn’t all that comforting for the incumbent.
Another point of comparison is the relationship between presidential support and election results, which has been discussed many times here.
Approval rating serves as an anchor for voting.
Since World War II, more than a dozen sitting presidents have run for reelection. In four of his 12 of these, the incumbent’s vote share was less than the incumbent’s job approval rate, and in eight his vote share was greater than the approval rate.
The average difference among the votes in favor was 3.4 points. In other words, if the pre-election approval rating was 40%, the average voter turnout for the incumbent would be 43.4%.
According to Gallup, President Biden’s approval rating has ranged from 39% to 41% over the past four quarters.
Therefore, unless the president’s approval ratings increase, he will need a record difference in approval ratings and votes to win.
However, an improvement in approval ratings is plausible. The last two incumbents seeking re-election, Barack Obama and Trump, increased their approval ratings by 6 to 8 points between the summer and the vote.
Based on history, an approval rating of 46% to 48% would put President Biden within range of victory.
Add to that all the unique traits of this race.
In our history, only Grover Cleveland has achieved what President Trump is attempting, coming back after defeat to win a second non-consecutive term in the White House.
And no challenger to a sitting president is as unpopular today as Mr. Trump.
Since the two-term limit was established, only three elected presidents have been denied a second term, one of whom was President Trump.
A predictor who suggests one candidate is certain to win has a 50/50 chance of being correct 100% of the time.
But the data is clear: As of today, neither candidate is a sure thing.
Either one could win. Anyone who makes big bets on either side, financially or reputationally, must be prepared to lose.
Mr. Mellman is a pollster and president of the Mellman Group, a political consulting firm. He is also the president of the Israeli Democratic Party majority.
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