Simon Rosenberg was right about the 2022 parliamentary elections. All the conventional wisdom — the polls, the pundits, the fears of Democrats — revolved around predictions of a big red wave and the annihilation of the Democratic Party.
he didn’t agree. Democrats will surprise everyone, he has said many times, “There will be no red wave.” Of course, he was right as he would quickly remind anyone listening.
Mr. Rosenberg, 60, a Democratic strategist and consultant who is said to have first worked on the presidential campaign for 1988 Democratic presidential candidate Michael Dukakis, has recently been involved in polls and Once again we are rebelling against doom and gloom. This time, they predict that President Biden will defeat President Donald J. Trump in November.
In a world of Democratic bed-wetters, Mr. Rosenberg is, to repeat a phrase used by Barack Obama’s senior political adviser David Plouffe to describe Democratic bed-wetters, a voice for whatever the bed-wetters are against. . day to day. He also publishes his Substack newsletter, which provides insight and daily reassurance to concerned readers. The name “Hopium Chronicles” was taken from what pollster Nate Silver suggested he was taking in his 2022.
I spoke to Mr. Rosenberg about what it feels like to be an outlier within his own party, and why he spends his nights at night when so many Democrats are planning to move to Paris after November. We talked about how well I was sleeping. This conversation has been edited for clarity and length. And Mr. Rosenberg, I love him, because he loves talking about this subject. a lot.
Good morning, Simon. And first of all, thank you for doing this.
If you had the opportunity to talk about the accomplishments of Joe Biden and the Democratic Party, could you turn it down?
The point of this interview is that at a time when there’s so much anxiety in the Democratic world, you’re not a bed-wetter, and you’ve never been. Could you please explain the reason? This goes back to the 2022 midterm parliamentary elections.
yes. That’s when I claimed he had three. One is that Republicans did something unusual in 2022. Usually when a political party loses an election, it runs away from the politics that caused the loss. And the Republicans were running towards it. Even though MAGA lost in 2018 and 2020, they were becoming more and more MAGA.
Second, Biden is actually a good president, and we need to insist on that. And third, public participation in the Democratic Party has increased significantly. Because of the fear of MAGA, we are raising an incredible amount of money and attracting an unprecedented number of volunteers.
We were stronger and better than conventional wisdom. The mistake everyone has been making since the spring of 2022 is overestimating their power and underestimating ours. We went into voting day with the strong belief that the Democratic Party would be killed. I believed that with these three elements, we would be able to exceed people’s expectations in 2022. And now we have that basic view of 2024.
But it certainly seems like a different time for Democrats, or for Biden..
It’s been almost two years and a lot of the same things are still happening. And Trump is a much weaker candidate in this election than he was in 2016. He is more dangerous. He’s more extreme. His performance on the stumps is far more erratic and unsettling. I’m just introducing my rap here.
How important is the Supreme Court’s decision on abortion rights to your case, and therefore to your rap?
I think elections changed a lot with Dobbs, but not much has changed since then. He has one political party that continues to win across the country. If you go back two years, we had all kinds of elections. The basic dynamics are the same, we keep winning and they keep struggling. Why is it different in November? In my view, that won’t happen. Because there is something structural going on at the root of all of this. That is, Dobbs destroyed the Republican Party and a large part of the Republican Party was freed from MAGA. It hurts them electorally and costs them a lot of donors and money.
But poll after poll shows Americans are unfavorable toward Biden and are worried about the direction of the country.a Wall Street Journal poll A poll released this week found that Mr. Biden is trailing Mr. Trump in six of the seven battleground states. It’s like rocket fuel for the anxious population.
There is no surprise in what we are seeing. However, I would like to tell you that it was said that the Democratic Party would suffer a crushing defeat in the election in 2022 due to Biden’s low approval ratings. That’s why I think it’s dangerous to understand this election by focusing on Biden’s approval ratings and opinion polls.
Polls only tell us what’s going on today. Those of us who have been in this industry understand how these things evolve and that the polls have been very loose as of late. In my opinion, polling is asking for too much effort when there is so much more information and data available to help us understand. And to me, that additional data suggests it’s going to be a good election. But we still have a long way to go.
Now, what about the issue of tension? Yeah, I mean, look, I mean, the media tells us, the New York Times tells us, MSNBC tells us we should look at this election primarily through the prism of current polling. . It’s something that the voting industrial complex asserts itself in a very aggressive way in our daily understanding of our elections. I think those of us who have a more comprehensive understanding of the health of candidates and parties have to continue to insist that there are many other things to look at.
Is there already evidence that polls suggesting Biden is in trouble are misleading?
Well, the proof is that Trump is underperforming in these early primary states and underperforming in the polls in all of these states except North Carolina. Second, polls in these early states show that 20 to 30 percent of the Republican coalition is willing to not support Trump.
Okay, but is there? anything Does it keep you up at night, worrying about Biden getting re-elected?
I wish I had more time. I think we started the campaign late, but we have a lot of work to do to win this. But we’re here now and we need to keep our heads down and get to work.
Could you cite the backlash against Biden over Gaza as an issue?
Building and sustaining coalitions that win presidential elections is always difficult, and that will likely be the case for Biden vs. Harris in 2024. Along the way, you will face challenges such as debate, debate, and even disagreement. But the Democratic Party is very united now. No one is saying they won’t withhold or support Biden, as President Trump is currently facing on the Republican side. Gaza is today an issue to be managed by Biden, not a threat.
What about third-party candidates? What happens if Robert F. Kennedy Jr., to name the most famous, wins the voting line in a super close state?
We know from history that we have to take all of this seriously. Democrats understand that they’re not just fighting Donald Trump this term, they’re also fighting three other candidates, and they have to fight them. We will need to treat them as if they are serious candidates in this election. And we have to do what we have to do in politics: make it unacceptable to voters.
Is there anyone on your side listening to you about this? Do you feel like a heretic within your own party — or rather? why Are you such an outlier in your party?
But also, Democrats tend to gravitate towards the negative, right?
yes. There it is. There is also a sense within the Democratic Party that if they fail in elections, democracy could disappear. People are understandably concerned.
But I’m looking at more than just polls.
Another factor, I argue, is that Democrats still remember what happened in 2016, when Trump defeated Hillary Clinton, even though polls predicted an easy victory for Clinton. I want to.
Yeah. When it comes to elections, there is the trauma of 2016. The most important thing I can say is that, no matter how you say it, Democrats are not sitting around at home twiddling their thumbs and throwing things at the TV.
Does that mean you’re not worried about Biden’s age being a factor in this election?
I. I know Biden’s age is an issue. But I think Mr. Biden’s strong performance at the State of the Union allayed a lot of the concerns that people had. However, in my opinion, it must also be written that one must be honest and fair-minded. There is a strong argument that Biden’s age is also an asset to him. At a time when the country is facing great challenges, he may be a blessing to us, as he is the most experienced person ever to occupy the Oval Office. I think you can make that claim without sounding like we’re pushing the boundaries of truth.
Are there other Democrats who would have been or would have been stronger against Trump in this election?
I don’t even think it’s worth it — no, no, I mean, Joe Biden is the candidate. I mean, it’s not worth speculating, right? You know, we just had a primary election. People could have challenged him. They didn’t do that because they didn’t think they could beat him. The two candidates who challenged him were defeated.
We are quietly confident. In the larger realm of things, this can be addressed. we can win elections. The big thing that people got wrong about 2022 was that they thought the Democrats weren’t going to bring it and that we weren’t hungry and we weren’t energetic. And it turns out we were.
