With most exit polls predicting a landslide victory for the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in the 2024 Indian Lok Sabha elections, Indian stock market indexes Sensex and Nifty 50 rose nearly 4% each to fresh all-time highs on Monday, June 3. The gains were driven by expected political stability and policy continuity.
“Domestic markets today rejoiced over the exit poll results for the Lok Sabha elections which projected a third consecutive victory for the NDA. Nifty gapped up and hit a fresh high of 23,338 levels before closing at close of the day’s high of 23,263 levels, up 733 points (+3.3%). Broader markets further rebounded with Midcap100/Smallcap100 up 3.2%/2.4%. India VIX fell 15% to 20.94 levels with all sectors participating in the upturn. Stated banking, infrastructure, real estate, energy and oil & gas rose 5-8%. “NDA 3.0 bodes well for the economy and capital markets as it is expected to bring stability and continuity in policy making by a single-party majority government and continue to push for economic growth policies,” said Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Retail Research, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd.
Also read: Exit poll predicts Modi 3.0: Share Khan lists top stocks for short and long term including ICICI Bank, SBI; checklist
Given market activity on the eve of earnings releases, past trends suggest investors are likely to continue the celebratory mood on June 4.
Live Mint We examined data on stock market performance trends on the day election results were announced and found that the impact of election results on long-term investors was generally minimal.
The S&P BSE Sensex index has consistently risen in the six months following election results in each of the past four election cycles, with average returns exceeding 11%.
Let’s look at the market movements that occurred on the days the last four election results were announced.
May 13, 2004
Market indices Sensex and Nifty rose 0.77 per cent and 0.37 per cent respectively to close at 5,399.47 and 1,717.5.
Sensex Intraday High: 5,487.34 | Sensex Intraday Low: 5,131.03
Nifty Intraday High: 1,750.30 | Nifty Intraday Low: 1,625.10
May 16, 2009
The Sensex index rose 2.53 per cent while the Nifty index rose 17.74 per cent to close at 12,173.42 and 4,323.15 respectively.
Sensex Intraday High: 14,284.21 | Sensex Intraday Low: 13,479.39
Nifty Intraday High: 4384.30 | Nifty Intraday Low: 3673.15
Also read: Lok Sabha Elections 2024: Exit polls see Railways stocks surge, IRFC, RVNL among top gainers
May 16, 2014
Indices Sensex and Nifty rose marginally, up 0.90% and 1.12% to close at 24,121.74 and 7,203, respectively.
Sensex Intraday High: 25,375.63 | Sensex Intraday Low: 23,873.16
Nifty Intraday High: 7,563.50 | Nifty Intraday Low: 7,130.65
May 23, 2019
Both the Sensex and Nifty were unchanged, declining 0.76 per cent and 0.69 per cent to close at 38,811.39 and 11,657.05, respectively.
Sensex Intraday High: 40,124.96 | Sensex Intraday Low: 38,651.61
Nifty Intraday High: 12,041.15 | Nifty Intraday Low: 11,614.5
Data compiled by Anubhav Mukherjee
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