Indian Stock Market: Domestic stock market to open lower on Monday following weakness in global peers amid heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East following Iran’s unprecedented attack on Israel over the weekend is expected.
U.S. stock markets closed lower last week on concerns about high interest rates, while Asian markets traded sharply lower.
While markets are reeling from the prospect of persistent inflation and persistently high long-term interest rates, rising Middle East crisis risks could further weigh on investors’ risk appetite and introduce new volatility into the market.
Investors are focused on several stock market triggers, including fourth-quarter results, the 2024 general election, the Israel-Iran conflict, domestic and global macroeconomic data, and oil prices, leading to stocks this week. The direction of the market will be a clue for the global market.
Read here: What’s in store this week: Q4 results, macro data, Israel-Iran conflict, and global clues to this week’s key market triggers
Indian stock market indexes ended 1% lower each on Friday, sold off across the board amid weak global economic conditions.
The Sensex plunged 793.25 points or 1.06% to close at 74,244.90, while the Nifty 50 fell 234.40 points or 1.03% to close at 22,519.40.
“Indian stocks may face temporary short-term headwinds from US Fed easing pushed into CY25 and commodity price rigidity due to adverse geopolitics. The impact of Fed rates will be minimal as it will be primarily driven internally by the manufacturing recovery. Large and sustained increases in commodity prices are a more significant risk, but are currently unlikely. “We believe it is low,” said Seshadri Sen, head of research and strategist at MK Global Financial Services.
He believes the upcoming Q4 FY24 earnings season will be strong, particularly in sectors such as consumer discretionary, and believes this is reflected in the strong EPS forecast for FY25.
“We remain positive on the market with Nifty’s year-end target of 24,000 and expect SMID to continue outperforming,” Sen added.
Also read: Buy or sell: Vaishali Parekh recommends 3 stocks to buy today – April 15
Here are today’s key global market cues for Sensex.
asian market
Asian markets fell on Monday as US stocks fell as tensions in the Middle East gradually escalated.
Japan’s Nikkei Stock Average fell 1.28%, and TOPIX fell 0.97%. South Korea’s Kospi fell 0.92%, and the Kosdaq fell 1.58%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index futures showed a weak start.
Read here: Asian stocks fall after Iran’s attack on Israel: Markets come full circle
Give a thoughtful gift today
Gift Nifty is trading around 22,465 levels, at a discount of nearly 140 points from the previous closing price of Nifty futures, indicating a gap downstart for the Indian stock market index.
wall street
U.S. stock market indexes ended sharply lower on Friday after disappointing results from major U.S. banks and looming geopolitical tensions.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 475.84 points, or 1.24%, to $37,983.24, and the S&P 500 Index fell 75.65 points, or 1.46%, to 5,123.41. The Nasdaq Composite Index fell 267.10 points (1.62%) to close at 16,175.09.
Among stocks, Advanced Micro Devices’ stock fell 4.2%, and Intel’s stock fell 5.2%. U.S. Steel shares fell 2.1%.
Also read: One week on Wall Street: Investors focus on US economic data, headline performance and Middle East tensions
Iran and Israel conflict
Geopolitical tensions erupted in the Middle East after Iran launched more than 300 drones and missiles at Israeli military targets on Saturday night in response to Israel’s alleged attack on the Iranian-Syrian consulate on April 1. Tensions rose. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) claimed the attack was “targeted at specific targets.” Meanwhile, Israel is likely to strike back against Iran in retaliation.
Read here: Israel-Iran tensions live updates: Hamas proposes new ceasefire, calls for 6-week cessation of hostilities
US dollar, government bond yield
The U.S. dollar was firm on Monday, with its biggest weekly gain since 2022, on the back of high interest rates and the prospect of escalating conflict in the Middle East. The dollar soared 1.6% last week against a basket of six major currencies.
U.S. two-year bond yields rose 15 basis points last week as hopes for an early rate cut faded, with just 50 basis points of rate cuts priced in this year, with the first rate cut not fully priced in until September.
India CPI, IIP data
India’s annualized retail inflation rate in March fell to 4.85%, the lowest in 10 months, from 5.09% in the previous month.
India’s industrial production growth, as per the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), accelerated from 3.8% in January 2024 to 5.7% in February 2024, indicating growth in the manufacturing sector of the Indian economy.
Read here: Retail inflation and factory output provide two driving forces for the Indian economy
crude oil price
Oil prices have slumped following Iran’s drone and missile attacks on Israel.
Global benchmark Brent crude oil futures rose 0.07% to $90.51 per barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) contract fell 0.07% to $85.60 per barrel. It became a dollar.
gold price today
Gold prices rose on Monday on demand for safe-haven assets. Gold rates rose 0.7% to $2,359.92 an ounce after setting a new record of $2,431.29 on Friday. The yellow metal is up about 14% so far this year.
TCS Q4 Results
Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) reported consolidated net income as follows: INR12,434 billion in Q4 FY24, registering 9% YoY growth. INRThe same period last year was 1,139.2 billion yen. The IT giant’s revenue for Q4 FY24 increased by 3.5% year-on-year. INR61,237 billion.
Read here: TCS Q4 results: Revenue up 4% YoY, profit up 9%. March Quarterly Scorecard Top 5 Highlights
Japanese machinery orders
Core machinery orders, a key indicator of Japan’s capital investment, rose 7.7% month-on-month in February, beating economists’ expectations for a 0.8% increase in a Reuters poll and down 1.7% in January. It was more than what I got back.
(Information provided by Reuters)
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or brokerages and not of Mint. We recommend checking with a certified professional before making any investment decisions.
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