At present, the American public does not tend to accept President Trump’s framework on a large scale. But even skeptics are concerned about him getting a fair shake, which could be especially important as the Manhattan trial continues.
Let’s take a look at them one by one.
1. Americans primarily blame Trump and say his scrutiny is appropriate.
Polls consistently show that Americans do not broadly support the “witch hunt” paradigm. They don’t seem to have much sympathy for Trump because they think he brought this situation on himself.
A December University of Maryland Washington Post poll found whether the Justice Department was “holding Trump accountable under the law like everyone else” or “holding Trump unfairly accountable for political reasons.” “Are they targeting people?” Americans chose the former, by a wide margin of 57 percent to 41 percent. Even among Republicans, 20% said Trump was being treated fairly.
A USA Today/Suffolk University poll in January featured a similar, albeit slightly less polarized, split in opinion. A majority, 52%, agreed that legal action against Mr. Trump was an “appropriate effort by the judicial system,” while 43% said it was “inappropriate and should be dropped.”
And an August CNN poll found that Americans were more likely to view President Trump’s many criminal charges as “political abuses of the justice system” (31%) than his actions (47%). showed that they were significantly more likely to blame the (Additionally, 21% said it was difficult to know.)
2. Importantly, they also think he’s guilty.
Another hurdle for President Trump in all of this is that the American public, regardless of their perception of the process, generally believes he is actually a criminal. Although evaluations of individual charges vary, about half or fewer think he is guilty in a given case, a clear majority think he committed at least some serious crimes. There is.
A poll conducted by The New York Times and Siena College last week found that Americans say President Trump has committed serious federal crimes, 54% to 37%. (Even among Republicans, about one in five agrees.)
In a post-UMD poll, Americans voted 56-33 to say Trump was guilty of destroying the election. Twice as many people answered “definitely guilty” (40%) as “definitely not guilty” (21%).
And regardless of whether he or she is ultimately found guilty, Americans at least see that there is legitimate evidence that could point in that direction and that the charges and trial appear to be justified. . An August poll by the Public Religion Research Institute found that Americans, 58% to 37%, said there was “credible evidence” that President Trump committed “serious federal crimes.”
At least most Americans haven’t swept these incidents under the rug or ignored them completely, as President Trump would like. As many as 4 in 10 people agree with his claim that he is being targeted politically, but those who think he is not inherently responsible or that the charges are unwarranted Even less.
3. They know politics is working, but they aren’t convinced the process is fair.
That said, more Americans have some skepticism about these procedures that could ultimately be important depending on how things play out. They see politics at play and are not convinced Trump will be treated fairly.
This could be especially important given that the Manhattan case, which they view most skeptically, could be the first to be tried and the only one before the election.
Some Americans are divided on this. A Times-Siena poll showed a clear majority believe Trump committed a crime, but in its December issue, 49% to 43% of Americans said they believed Trump had committed crimes. He said he did not believe he would receive a fair and impartial trial in Trump’s federal election destruction case.
Similarly, a Reuters/Ipsos poll this month found that Americans are slightly more likely (48%) to believe that President Trump’s prosecution is “overreach and politically motivated,” but not (41%). %) was shown to be slightly higher.
Other polls also show that the “politically motivated” label still remains. A Times/Siena poll conducted in December found that respondents were more concerned about whether the charges were “politically motivated” (46%) or based on an actual belief that the prosecutor had committed a crime (48%). ), Americans’ opinions were almost evenly divided.
And no incident demonstrated this recognition more clearly than the Manhattan incident. A Quinnipiac University poll conducted in March 2023, just before President Trump was indicted, found that twice as many people said the incident was “primarily motivated by law” (32%) than “primarily legally motivated” (32%). (62%) said they were motivated by
Seeing politics at work is not the same as seeing President Trump as not responsible or unworthy of prosecution.
But we are beginning to see how the Manhattan prosecutor’s first, and perhaps only, pre-election case could harm efforts to prosecute Trump. Only about one-third of Americans think Trump is guilty in this case. They think the sin is not that serious. And a significant number of people are on the lookout for injustice and politics.
President Trump has yet to convince them that this is all a “hoax” or a “weaponization” of the government, and he is far from doing so. But that may not be the goal, just to plant at least some doubt in their minds should things go against him.
