The Indian National Congress can say, as Mark Twain put it, “rumors of my death have been greatly exaggerated.” Its victory in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections of 99 seats restores the balance of India’s democracy and breathes new life into the main opposition party.
Till now, it was thought that even if the Congress Party won important state elections, it would not be able to make an impact on national politics. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s cult-like popularity seemed too strong to dispel. The results of the Lok Sabha elections shattered that myth, and the Congress Party won seats not only in the south but also in the north, breaking the stronghold of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).
The big question is how the Congress can continue this momentum going forward. Moments that seemed like good days for the party in the last decade have not translated into lasting momentum. Small victories never seem to add up.
Momentum will be key if Congress hopes to return to power in 2029 and win at least 200 seats to form a coalition. A year from now, 99 seats cannot look like anything more than a temporary success.
There is data to suggest that the two Jodh Yatra marches performed well for the Indian National Congress. Generally speaking, no one would deny that the two yatras strengthened the party’s previously demoralised support base and helped it win both votes and seats.
Consistency is key
The two lessons learned from the India Pure Land March — countrywide campaigning and consistency — should guide the party for the next five years.
It is clear that rather than a day or two of protest, the party needs a long-term campaign lasting weeks and months to reach its message to the vast country’s diverse population of 1.4 billion people, especially when the media is not providing an impartial report.
This cannot wait until 2028. The Indian National Congress Party should always conduct a national campaign, regardless of its performance in state elections. National campaigns should be seen as a complement to state campaigns, rather than suspending the national campaign when state elections are underway.
A massive nationwide campaign every year would go a long way in preventing cries of “what on earth is the Indian National Congress doing” and maintaining opposition through mass connect. This campaign, although not as challenging as the first Indian Jodh Yatra, should ideally be led by Rahul Gandhi. Gandhi’s involvement would enable party workers to put aside sectarian differences and give their all to the yatra.
Battle of the States
And then there are state elections.
To ensure momentum, the obvious focus will be on winning as many state elections as possible. The immediate focus will be on Maharashtra, Haryana, Delhi and Jharkhand. The Indian National Congress performed very well in the first two states and looks likely to win treasury seats in both.
But a reprimanded BJP will do everything in its power to prevent the loss of Maharashtra and Haryana. The Indian National Congress should therefore be careful about assuming that these states have already been won. Overconfidence is a mistake.
“In Haryana, the party needs to present itself as a united party and avoid giving the impression that the Congress is merely a front for the Jats. Addressing factionalism within the party is important. The Congress campaign in Haryana must thwart anti-Jat unity.”
Uddhav as CM
In Maharashtra, the Congress Party has surprised everyone by emerging as the largest party. This risks that the local units in Maharashtra will try to impose terms on Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar, who have fared relatively well in the face of insurmountable challenges. The Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi alliance in Maharashtra would do well to clearly announce a common minimum platform with Uddhav Thackeray as its chief ministerial candidate. The Maharashtra Congress Party should aim to become the largest party again in the state assembly elections.
In Delhi, the party needs to make it clear to the AAP whether it wants to form a coalition or not. If the AAP leaves the BJP in limbo, the BJP will not be able to fully shift into anti-incumbency or coalition mode. If Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal is not released on bail, the February 2025 Delhi elections will be unpredictable. This situation gives the Delhi Congress room to reinvent itself.
Lessons from Rajasthan
Ashok Gehlot’s revolutionary welfare schemes in Rajasthan mean the BJP will win just 120 seats in the 2023 Rajasthan Assembly elections instead of the 150 the party had expected. The state changes hands every five years, but even if the BJP had a landslide victory in Rajasthan like it did in Madhya Pradesh, it would not have come as a surprise to the Indian National Congress winning 12 seats in the state assembly.
The lesson learned from Rajasthan is not to focus on the immediate elections but to plan a strategy for the next two to three election cycles, something the Congress needs to do to maintain momentum both at the national and state levels.
(The author is co-founder of DesignBoxed)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author.
