Santa Ana, California, April 3, 2024–(BUSINESS WIRE)–Today, Veros Real Estate Solutions (Veros®), an industry leader in enterprise risk management and collateral valuation services, announced Q1 2024 VeroFORECAST.SM, is expected to rise by an average of 2.9% nationally over the next 12 months. This has been revised upward from the previous quarter’s forecast of 2.4%.
vero forecastSM evaluates home prices in more than 300 of the nation’s largest housing markets, and Velos evaluates home values based on rigorous analysis of the fundamentals and interrelationships of numerous economic, housing, and geographic variables that contribute to home values. We are working on data science to predict.
The forecast for house prices to rise 2.9% over the next 12 months comes on the back of falling housing inventories and strong demand despite rising mortgage rates. Although there are some signs of softening, we expect rates to remain above 6.5% through 2024 due to inflation above the Fed’s 2% target and a strong labor market. has been done.
Despite high prices and mortgage rates, overall home prices are still trending upwards due to competition among home buyers with fewer properties available. In addition, demand is growing even further as the nation’s largest demographic, the Millennial generation, is entering its prime home-buying age. While current mortgage rates are higher than 2020-2021 rates, they remain modest in contrast to the horrific rates of the 1980s and 1990s.
In the future, housing supply constraints will be influenced not only by economic factors, but also by demographic changes such as personal ties to home and baby boomers choosing an appropriate age. Strict lending regulations, a departure from lax practices during the 2008 crisis, have reduced the risk of widespread defaults and ensured market stability.
The combination of already high home prices and interest rates poses a formidable challenge for many buyers, especially first-time homebuyers, highlighting affordability as a critical concern in the 2024 housing landscape. It becomes. As a result, buyers are drawn to smaller metros in the Northeast and Midwest, drawn by a combination of affordability, strong job markets, and lifestyle appeal.
The 10 best-performing markets, expected to increase between 6% and 7.5% over the next 12 months, are primarily from the Northeast and Midwest, driven by proximity to major cities and work-from-home trends. I’m proud of the opportunity. These include his three in Pennsylvania: Lancaster, Reading, and Harrisburg. One is in upstate New York – Rochester. Two in New England – Manchester, New Hampshire; Hartford, Connecticut. and the other four in the Midwest – Rockford, Illinois. Grand Rapids, Michigan. Topeka, Kansas. and Indianapolis, Indiana.
|
rank |
Metropolitan statistical area |
forecast |
|
1 |
Lancaster, Pennsylvania |
7.5% |
|
2 |
Rochester, New York |
7.0% |
|
3 |
Manchester – Nashua, New Hampshire |
6.9% |
|
Four |
Reading, Pennsylvania |
6.7% |
|
Five |
Hartford East Hartford Middletown, CT |
6.6% |
|
6 |
Rockford, Illinois |
6.5% |
|
7 |
Grand Rapids – Kentwood, Michigan |
6.2% |
|
8 |
Topeka, Kansas |
6.1% |
|
9 |
Carmel Anderson, Indianapolis, Indiana |
6.1% |
|
Ten |
Harrisburg Carlisle, Pennsylvania |
6.0% |
Conversely, the 10 weakest markets are expected to grow in the next 12 months as some metros struggle with rising unemployment and are insolvent, including some cities in Texas, Louisiana, and Kentucky. A gradual decline is expected in the range of -1% to -3%. to attract new residents. Previously thriving markets like Austin are experiencing a slowdown due to changing economic dynamics related to affordability challenges and a less competitive job market. The interplay of supply, demand, and economic factors continues to shape the housing market story, highlighting the importance of local insights within broader trends.
|
rank |
Metropolitan statistical area |
forecast |
|
1 |
Brownsville, Texas – Harlingen |
-3.2% |
|
2 |
Lake Charles, Louisiana |
-2.5% |
|
3 |
Austin – Round Rock – Georgetown, Texas |
-2.4% |
|
Four |
ST. GEORGE, UTAH |
-2.1% |
|
Five |
Pueblo, Colorado |
-2.0% |
|
6 |
Waco, Texas |
-1.7% |
|
7 |
Punta Gorda, Florida |
-1.7% |
|
8 |
Bowling Green, Kentucky |
-1.6% |
|
9 |
Beaumont Port Arthur, Texas |
-1.6% |
|
Ten |
Myrtle Beach – Conway – North Myrtle Beach, SC – North Carolina |
-1.4% |
VeroFORECAST methodology
Quarterly VeroFORECAST reports to clients by subscription and summaries to industry media.Current report is based on 312 Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) data. 16413 post code, 963 county, and 82% Resident of the United States. This report predicts growth over the next 12 months.
Source: Veros Real Estate Solutions (Veros®)
This information is intended for use by the media for economic reporting, must be used in whole or in part for physical or digital publication or broadcast only, and must be obtained from Veros Real Estate Solutions. If the data is presented on a map, chart, graph, or other visual element, the company name must appear on the screen or website. For questions, analysis, interpretation of data, or permission to reproduce, please contact communication@veros.com.
About Research Economist Leena Agrawal
Leena Agrawal has a Ph.D. She received her PhD in economics from Vanderbilt University. She has 15 years of experience in macroeconomic forecasting, sectoral studies, complex project feasibility studies, and reporting for multinational clients.
About Veros Real Estate Solutions (Veros®)
An innovator in mortgage technology since 2001, Veros is a proven leader in enterprise risk management and collateral valuation services. The company combines predictive technology, data analytics, and industry expertise to deliver advanced automation solutions that control risk and increase profits across the mortgage industry, from loan origination to servicing to securitization. I am. Veros’ services include automated valuation, fraud and risk detection, portfolio analysis, forecasting, and a next-generation collateral risk management platform. Veros is the primary architect and technology provider for GSE’s Uniform Collateral Data Portal® (UCDP®). Veros also works closely with FHA to support the Electronic Appraisal Delivery (EAD) portal. The company also works to streamline the homebuying process for our nation’s veterans through its appraisal management work with the Department of Veterans Affairs. For more information, visit www.veros.com or call 866-458-3767.
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contact address
Heather Zeller, Vice President of Marketing
Communications@veros.com
(714) 415-6300
