That position is not based on partisan loyalty (I do not support either major party), but on a reluctance to see the right to vote devalued, but the fight over such policies has been going on for years. have There is a partisan divide, pitting Democrats, who tend to support any reforms aimed at increasing voter turnout, against Republicans, who generally push back against such laws.
For example, the first bill introduced by the newly elected Democratic majority in the House of Representatives in 2019, HR1, would have implemented automatic voter registration nationwide and made Election Day a holiday. Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell called it a “blatant attempt to change the rules of American politics to favor one party” and dubbed the bill the “Protect Democrat Politicians Act.” The following year, then-President Trump rejected a Democratic proposal to significantly increase funding for absentee and mail-in voting options. Calling the bill “crazy,” Trump told Fox News that if it passed, “we’ll never have a Republican elected in this country again.”
It’s no wonder why Democrats have enthusiastically pursued, and Republicans have enthusiastically resisted, every measure to add unregistered voters to voter rolls and make it easier for them to vote in elections. Political activists take it for granted that unregistered (or inactive) voters are more likely to lean Democratic; therefore, if more marginal voters can be induced to register and vote, Democrats are more likely to gain the vote. A Pew Research Center survey compiled in 2014 shows a typical pattern: Among those who did not vote that year, 29% supported the Democrats and only 18% said they supported the Republicans.
This model, so long entrenched, explains the endless political skirmishes over voting rights and regulations. “Republicans want to put up barriers,” Rep. Summer Lee of Pennsylvania said Wednesday during a congressional debate over requiring proof of citizenship for voter registration, “because if people vote, they lose.” She could have just as accurately said that Democrats are pushing to relax election rules because they believe they’ll win if more people vote.
Republican and Democratic policymakers fought similar battles in more than half of state legislatures last year, and clashes are brewing this year in Alaska, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Montana.
But what if Democrats and Republicans are wrong? What if conventional wisdom is turned upside down? What if, contrary to longstanding experience, marginal voters turn out to be potential big moneymakers for the Republican Party?
According to Nate Cohn, chief political analyst at The New York Times, that’s exactly what happened.
“In a reversal of one of the most familiar patterns in American politics, it appears President Donald J. Trump, not President Biden, would benefit if every American were to vote,” Cohn wrote recently.
Biden is leading Trump frequent Among the electorate as a whole, Trump is trailing significantly behind the rest of the electorate, putting him ahead overall.To political activists, this may be the most surprising example yet of how thoroughly Trump’s populist appeal has reshaped American political norms.
Cohn’s data show that disinterested voters don’t particularly like Trump personally, but they are motivated more by the Republican emphasis on finances than the Democrats’ defense of democracy. As a result, even low-turnout voters who typically consider themselves Democrats say they are more likely to vote for Trump.
Election scientists analysing the latest numbers have seen signs of growing Republican support among infrequent voters, the kind of voters who avoid primary and special elections, for some time. In 2020, Trump came much closer to victory than voter polls had predicted, in part because of his unexpected strength among Hispanic voters. And newly registered voters are significantly less likely to identify as Democrats than they were five years ago.
In North Carolina last year, Republicans followed traditional patterns and fought to block same-day registration, while Democrats went to court to defend it. But as the New York Sun recently pointed out, a disproportionate number of voters in the last election took advantage of the opportunity to register and vote immediately on Election Day. RepublicanThe same thing happened in New Mexico and Virginia, where Democrats pushed for same-day registration, but most of the last-minute new voters registered with the Republican Party.
Old habits die hard. Neither Republicans nor Democrats seem ready to abandon their traditional ideas about loosening or tightening voting access. But can party leaders and campaign pundits ignore the tectonic shifts that are upending old assumptions about who benefits when more people vote? If it becomes clear that higher voter turnout works against Democrats, will their impassioned calls for greater voting access be affected? If Republicans realize that they are more likely to win by promoting mail-in voting and allowing voters to register on-site, will they continue to attack such changes?
If the political winds have truly shifted, it’s only a matter of time before the parties change their tune on voting rights. Republican and Democratic leaders may tout that their positions on voting rights are based on principle, not a desire to win. But the major parties exist to win elections. No principle is more compelling than that. Over the decades, Republicans and Democrats have dramatically shifted their seemingly fixed positions on everything from civil rights to protectionism to foreign policy. Is this the only issue they will stick with no matter what? Don’t get your hopes up.
Jeff Jacoby can be contacted at contact addressFollow him Jeff JacobyTo subscribe to our weekly newsletter “Arguable”, globe.com/Debatable.
