Top Line
According to data provided to Forbes by Zillow and S&P CoreLogic, Texas and Florida have continued to grow as pandemic-era gains cool and they benefit from rising inventory, but Florida’s two largest metro areas and Texas’ capital, Austin, have seen the sharpest declines in home market prices in the U.S. so far this year.
Cape Coral home prices are down 1.4% this year. (Photo: Jeffrey Greenberg/Education) … [+]
Key Facts
Cape Coral, Florida: The Southwest Florida metro area has seen its median home price ($395,281) fall 1.4% so far this year, and home prices fell 0.8% from December to April after peaking in prices in 2022, according to data from Zillow and CoreLogic, as rising inventory gives buyers the most negotiating power among the top 100 U.S. metropolitan areas.
Austin, Texas: The housing market, one of the hottest in the U.S. early in the pandemic, has since cooled and continues to do so this year: The average home price in Austin fell 1.2% to $466,628, according to Zillow, while a construction boom has put home inventory 37% above pre-pandemic levels.
Northport, Florida: In the metro area about 45 miles north of Cape Coral, the median home price fell 1% to $455,626 and home sales prices fell 0.7% as high mortgage rates and rising insurance costs dampened demand and slowed price appreciation, according to Zillow and CoreLogic.
San Antonio, Texas: The same factors cooling Austin home prices also led to a 0.6% drop in the average home price in San Antonio, to $285,511, according to Zillow. San Antonio is one of the few housing markets with more inventory than before the pandemic.
New Orleans, Louisiana: In New Orleans, the median home price ($241,940) and home values were both down 0.5%, according to Zillow and CoreLogic, as the metro area “never caught up with the wave of demand that significantly boosted prices in other parts of the country during the pandemic,” Amanda Pendleton, Zillow’s housing trends expert, told Forbes.
Get Forbes breaking news text alerts: Start a text message alert to stay on top of the biggest stories making headlines that day. Text “Alerts” to (201) 335-0739 or sign up here.
Where else are home prices falling?
In addition to Cape Coral, Northport and New Orleans, the Nassau-Suffolk metropolitan area on New York’s Long Island and the Deltona-Daytona-Ormond Beach metropolitan area in Florida are also seeing weaker home prices. In Nassau-Suffolk, home prices are down 1.7% from December 2023 to April 2024, a change that CoreLogic attributes to lower prices due to an increase in the number of listings. Home prices in the Deltona-Daytona-Ormond Beach metropolitan area are down 0.2% over the same period. New listings and homes remaining on the market longer in the metropolitan areas are causing price growth to slow.
Main Background
Texas and Florida have some of the fastest-growing populations in the U.S., according to census data, but that growth has slowed somewhat. But home prices in both states remain low or stagnant, in part due to a surge in housing supply. Of the 10 U.S. cities where sellers are most likely to lower their home prices, five are in Florida and two are in Texas, according to a Redfin report. Redfin said Texas and Florida are building more homes to keep up with demand, especially since pandemic-era population growth surges have subsided and buyers have less competition for homes. Meanwhile, home prices are soaring in other Florida cities, including Miami, Jacksonville and Tampa, which Zillow still considers a buyer’s market based on competition for homes for sale. CoreLogic chief economist Molly Boesel said that on a national scale, rising interest rates, which increase borrowing costs, are linked to weak home prices. Zillow said home price growth slowed in May when there was less competition among homebuyers, and new listings by buyers in the U.S. rose 8% in May.
Points to note
Zillow predicts that home prices nationwide will rise 0.4% this year and fall 1.4% over the next 12 months. Zillow also said that existing home sales are expected to reach 4.12 million this year, up about 1% from a year ago.
References
2024 Housing Market Predictions: When will housing be affordable again? (Forbes)
The city that’s booming during the pandemic is also a surprisingly great place to retire (Forbes)
