About this report
Natural gas markets remained relatively calm during the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2023/24. Spot gas prices in Asia and Europe fell to pre-crisis levels in the first quarter of 2024, and Henry Hub prices in the US plummeted to multi-decade lows. High storage levels and unseasonably mild weather, along with an improved supply base, stabilized the natural gas market through the 2023/24 heating season. 1 The 2023/24 gas winter was on average mild, but was accompanied by severe cold snaps and a surge in gas demand. This highlighted the importance of gas supply flexibility for energy security.
After rebalancing in 2023, the natural gas market is expected to see strong demand growth in 2024, driven primarily by the industrial and power sectors of fast-growing Asian economies. The continued expansion of renewable energy and increasing availability of nuclear power may weigh on gas-fired power generation in mature markets. High storage levels could lead to further easing of market fundamentals into summer 2024.
Geopolitical tensions pose the biggest risk to the near-term outlook. LNG trade across the Red Sea has been suspended since the beginning of the year, but Russian attacks on energy infrastructure, including storage, continue. In this context, the security of natural gas supplies remains a key aspect of energy policy-making, and the risks associated with our outlook include the evaluation and implementation of flexibility options along the gas and LNG value chain. This highlights the need to strengthen international cooperation.
Current issue of quarterly magazine gas market report This report by the International Energy Agency (IEA) provides a thorough review of market trends over the 2023/24 heating season and short-term outlook for 2024. As part of the IEA Low emission work programthe report includes sections on policy and regulatory developments aimed at stimulating demand for biomethane, low-emission hydrogen, and electronic methane.
