Image source, Getty Images
- author, Hugh Schofield
- role, Paris correspondent
The far-right National Rally (RN) has won another victory, putting it well on its way to transforming French politics.
In the coming days there will be much talk of centre- and left-wing candidates dropping out in the second round in order to concentrate the anti-RN vote, and many will lament the demise of the old parties. Republic Front (Other parties had previously agreed to exclude the far right).
But it would take a monumental upset to overturn the only conclusion that can be drawn from this first round of voting: that the RN is now indisputably the dominant political force in France.
Nevertheless, the decisions to be made over the coming week remain crucial.
It is the difference between a far-right government being able to act freely because it has a majority in the National Assembly, and a far-right government being able to do very little because the Assembly is divided.
At the moment, the RN’s seat projections are between 260 and 310. Given that 289 seats is an absolute majority, there is clearly still a lot to go.
French President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist and leftist New Popular Front coalition plans to urge supporters to vote strategically in the second round on July 7 to minimize damage to its cause. Voters will be encouraged to choose candidates who oppose the New Popular Front in their constituencies, even if their own candidate is eliminated.
But the problem with this kind of party mandate is that fewer and fewer people are listening to it.
It has taken a long time for the stigma that comes with voting RN to fade, but I can now declare that it is definitely done.
Another challenge for the RN opponents is the high number of so-called triangular votes in the second round – in other words, constituencies where three candidates, rather than two, will face off next Sunday – usually one each from the centre, the far right and the left.
The high number of triangles is due to high voter turnout, which is itself a result of high stakes.
Also, the electoral blitz made it impossible for smaller parties to act together, concentrating votes in three blocs.
Obviously, it is harder to marshal anti-RN votes when there are three parties competing in a constituency: in many places a centrist or left-wing candidate will stand, but not in all places.
Across the country, a sense of inevitability seems to have gripped us — what once seemed an unthinkable event is now becoming a reality.
This has left so many people feeling disheartened and angry, especially in big cities like Paris where the gloom has fallen.
Elsewhere, namely in the countryside, people probably feel differently.