FOMC, Apple, Amazon, USD/JPY, Gold, USD Outlook

Market one week ago – W/C April 29th – FOMCApple, Amazon, USD/JPY, Moneyand USD Outlook

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• The FOMC and NFP will lead the USD next week.
• The next Mag 7 to be reported are Apple and Amazon.
• USD/JPY further enters dangerous territory.

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It was a risk-on week for most markets as hostilities between Israel and Iran took a backseat in the aftermath of Passover. Iran’s recent drone attacks on Israel now seem to be in the rearview mirror, but Israel is still talking about further retaliation and the current peace may not last for long. The daily VIX chart highlights the risk-on sentiment over the last week, with Friday the 19th’s multi-month high of 21.36 selling off heavily. VIX ended the week at 15.03.

VIX daily chart

Next week’s economic calendar includes Eurozone and German GDP and inflation announcements, the US ISM report, the US monthly employment report, and the latest FOMC monetary policy decisions. The Fed is expected to keep interest rates on hold and is unlikely to lower borrowing costs until the fourth quarter as inflation remains high. At the end of 2023, the market was pricing in about 170 basis points of rate cuts this year, but is currently pricing in just 31 basis points.

For all the economic data and events that move the markets, DailyFX Calendar

Technology reporting season is in full swing, with both Amazon and Apple releasing books next week. Last week’s report produced some volatile price action. Tesla missed expectations and its stock rose more than 10%, Meta beat expectations but fell more than 12%, Amazon rose 10% and the world’s largest company Microsoft rose nearly 3%. In addition to Amazon and Apple, other notable companies reporting earnings include AMC, Pfizer, Moderna, Block, and Coinbase.

All company closing dates are DailyFX Earnings Calendar

The Japanese yen continues to decline, trading at levels that are uncomfortable for the Bank of Japan and many other central banks. It is very likely that the current level of around 158.30 will prompt the Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Japan to take action towards strengthening the domestic currency in the near future. Friday’s sharp rally could reverse before 160 becomes a reality next week.

USD/JPY daily chart

The FTSE has risen more than 5% since April 19, with a weaker pound, increased M&A activity and a general rerating of the index contributing to the rise. It is unlikely that all three drivers will change in the coming weeks, so the UK 100 will rise further.

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This week’s chart – FTSE 100

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Technical and fundamental forecasts – including April 29th

British pound weekly forecast: GBP/USD rises, downtrend still prevailing.

The British pound strengthened against the US dollar in what is expected to be an attractive new trading week.

Euro weekly forecast – EUR/USD, EUR/GBP fundamental, technical and sentiment analysis

The euro has been on a downward trend over the weekend. Next week, economic indicators and events could test the resistance and/or support levels of EUR/USD and EUR/GBP again.

Gold Weekly Forecast: XAU/USD Bullish Factors dissipate

Gold rose last week, but recent gains have narrowed as risk sentiment improves. Will rising interest rates weigh on gold, or will growth concerns provide support?

USD Forecast: Focus shifts from risk rally to Fed and NFPs

US PCE data helped the dollar end the week flat. Will the US dollar strengthen as concerns about a reacceleration of inflation emerge in the FOMC statement?