In the United States, headline consumer price inflation accelerated to 3.5% year-on-year in March, beating expectations of 3.4%. Core consumer prices (excluding food and energy) rose 3.8% year-on-year in March, also slightly above expectations. I don’t see any reason to be too alarmed about March’s inflation rate. Consumer price inflation has remained within a range since last summer, and previous increases did not portend a sustained rise. Expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates in June are said to have disappeared due to the acceleration in inflation in March, but stock prices are not dependent on whether the Fed will cut interest rates. For more information, see the April 10, 2024 commentary, “Into Perspective: March’s Rise in Inflation.”
In the UK, industrial production in February increased by 1.1% from the previous month and by 1.4% from the same month last year, exceeding expectations. Meanwhile, manufacturing production increased by 1.2% from the previous month and by 2.7% from the previous year, also exceeding expectations. GDP rose 0.1% month-on-month in February, in line with expectations and extending the initial GDP recovery that began in January. In the euro area, the European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged.
In Japan, bank lending in March increased by 3.2% year-on-year. The preliminary value of the money supply (M2) for March was 2.5% higher than the previous year, exceeding expectations. In China, consumer prices in March fell 1.0% month-on-month, but rose 0.1% year-on-year. The growth of RMB loan balance in March increased by 9.6% year-on-year. Exports and imports in March decreased by 7.5% and 1.9% from the previous year, respectively. The money supply (M2) growth rate in March was 8.3% compared to the previous year, which was lower than expected.
next week
The US, UK and China are reporting retail sales figures for March. The UK, Eurozone and Japan release inflation figures for March. China announces GDP for the first quarter of 2024. The United States, the Eurozone, and China announce industrial production figures for March. Japan releases trade statistics for March.
All data cited is sourced from FactSet. This update constitutes the general views of Fisher Investments and should not be considered personal investment advice. There can be no guarantee that we will continue to hold these views and they may change at any time based on new information, analysis, or review. Further, there is no guarantee as to the accuracy of any predictions made herein. World stocks are represented by the MSCI World Index. The MSCI World Index measures the performance of selected stocks from 23 developed countries and is expressed net of dividend withholding tax, the maximum tax rate applicable to non-resident institutional investors not benefiting from double tax treaties. Use the. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing in the stock market involves the risk of loss.
