We’re in the middle of the offseason and there are a lot of players who are playing great in practices without pads. While the on-field action is up more than it’s been in months, there’s also a lot going on off the field. Here are some of those developments and what you should do about it in dynasty leagues.
Raven (Coach)’s quote, Nevermore
Purple and black go together King Henry. 😈 pic.twitter.com/qhesR5GXCG
— Baltimore Ravens (@Ravens) June 10, 2024
One of the strangest scenes this season will be Derrick Henry going to a team other than the Titans, who opted not to bring him back, so he signed a two-year contract with the Baltimore Ravens.
On the surface, it makes sense for the Titans to let Henry go. He turns 30 in January and has logged at least 280 carries in four of the past five seasons, so he’s sure to start slowing down. Right? Right?
But that’s why Henry’s value is so hard to gauge. He’s well past the age where most running backs begin to decline, yet he still finished last year ranked in the top five among fantasy running backs with nearly 1,200 yards on the ground and 12 touchdowns. And that was on an offense that finished the season 25th in offensive DVOA and started a rookie quarterback. What will Henry do with the league’s fourth-best offense last year and an MVP-winning center?
Dynastic influence: Dynasty leagues are inherently a multi-year investment, but that’s not always the case with players, especially running backs. Dynasty league positions, like real life, have a short shelf life, so you have to strike while the iron is hot. With a player like Henry, he’s still hot. And unlike the Titans, who were hesitant to sign him for more than a season, Henry is a perfect fit for a dynasty team to rent for just one season.
And, as the value chart above proves, his value could hardly get any higher: According to DLF Trade Analyzer, Henry can be acquired as early as the second round of the rookie draft, which is cheap for a player who was ranked in the top five at his position last year and now has the better offensive potential.
Becoming a Commander
Commanders minicamp notes: On RB tandem and early-arriving QB (via Sam 4TR) https://t.co/RcwM7vkeVa
— Jason Murray (@JasonMurray117) June 13, 2024
There’s a lot to be excited about from the Commanders’ offense this season, but running back doesn’t seem to be one of them, according to the Tweet/X-post above. One of the few changes (upgrades?) made to the offensive line is the pairing of veteran Austin Ekeler with current starter Brian Robinson.
Robinson had a decent sophomore season, totaling over 1,000 scrimmage yards and scoring nine times while finishing as the bottom RB2 on fantasy rosters. He recorded nearly three times as many carries as reserve Antonio Gibson (178-65) and was nearly even with him in the passing game (Robinson had 36 receptions for 368 yards and four touchdowns, Gibson had 48 receptions for 389 yards and two touchdowns).
Age certainly seems to be holding Ekeler back for him and his dynasty managers. The now 29-year-old running back averaged 3.5 yards per carry last year, by far the lowest of his career. He also averaged 3.6 receptions per game, his lowest since becoming a starter. Putting all of these statistics together, Ekeler finished outside the top 30 as far as fantasy running backs go, but that’s the first time he’s done so since 2020, when he missed nearly half the season. Now, he’s in the timeshare as an older, less talented running back.
Dynastic influence: While the end may be near for Ekeler, the move may actually hurt Robinson even more.
But if Kingsbury can pick who will lead the team in carries, Robinson might be just fine. He led offenses in the top seven in rushing attempts in two years at Arizona. Both of those years the lead back had more than double the number of carries than any other back. Both of those backs (Kenyan Drake and James Conner) had top-15 fantasy seasons.
So the fact that Kingsbury is trying to run a two-back attack isn’t a death knell for Washington’s running back corps … yet. If Robinson can hold off Ekeler, he’ll have a player worthy of being added to the roster and maybe even a starter.
Dodge this ram
#Rams Head coach Sean McVay talks about the rookies who impressed him during minicamp.
“Blake Collum really stood out. He’s mature beyond his years. I love the way he carries himself. I love even more how he responded on the next play when some things didn’t go the way we wanted them to.” pic.twitter.com/CispOQryGl
— CoachSpeakIndex (@CoachspeakIndex) June 13, 2024
With the 2024 season in full swing, the running back battle is underway. In this case, it may be the most intriguing battle of the offseason. The Rams selected former University of Michigan running back Blake Corum in the third round. Corum was a very intriguing player that divided opinion among fantasy pundits. Was he a natural talent that led Michigan’s offense, or was he influenced by those around him? Either way, Los Angeles liked him enough to select him 83rd overall.
Corum is making the most of his rookie status so far. He’s been on the field while incumbent Kyren Williams recovers from injury, impressing the coaching staff, including Sean McVay, who, according to the tweet above, isn’t happy with his performance.
But will that ease the load for Williams, or at least lighten it? Williams has carried the ball 15 times in 9 of 12 games, including the final eight, and he made the most of his opportunities, scoring a touchdown or rushing for 100 yards in all but two games.
The unstoppable momentum of the Corum hype train faces off against the immovable object that is Kylen Williams.
Dynastic influence: Any time the Rams draft anyone, let alone a running back, dynasty league fans should listen. Los Angeles has been a role model for not committing to a running back since they let go of former All-Pro Todd Gurley five years ago. Since then, three running backs have led the team in rushing, but none have stayed with the team. No doubt McVay will want to rely on a running back for a season, but that won’t be the case for multiple seasons.
Currently, Williams is ranked 10th among our running backs.
While the players above Williams are also less reliable, keeping Williams seems risky. He’s under contract with the Rams for two more seasons and was injured for over a month last season. The position is one of the least reliable in fantasy and dynasty leagues, and Williams is no exception.
Michael has been playing fantasy football for over 20 years, beginning when his mother funded his first team in the fourth grade. He has written for various fantasy football publications, most recently for Pro Football Focus, where he wrote fantasy-related articles for five years.
