The “Red Line” is currently circling the globe, and a serious alarm has just been sounded. Iran launched dozens of drones toward Israel.
Iran may have just crossed a “red line” by launching a drone at Israel. Israel would scramble and shoot down incoming artillery fire to intercept the drones through sensors, “Iron Domes” and electronic warfare platforms. In foreign policy, a “red line” is a boundary that cannot be crossed. It’s a phrase often used by leaders to make it clear that crossing policy lines is just as serious as physical boundaries.
Up until now, it has been Iranian proxies like Hezbollah that have fired missiles at Israel. This is an unusual overt operation from Tehran.
Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu will need to decide how to respond, where his “red lines” are, and whether this is a limited attack or the beginning of an escalating crisis. right.
The US response will depend on whether the Biden administration considers Iran’s actions a “red line that should not be crossed,” the extent to which this was anticipated and perhaps forewarned to the Biden administration by Iranian officials, and It will also depend on what is started.
President Biden has called an emergency meeting. A White House statement reaffirmed America’s “ironclad” support for Israel.
Why now?
After Hamas launched a terrorist attack on Israeli citizens on October 7, 2024, Israel responded with an attack on Gaza. The war is now in its seventh month, creating a humanitarian disaster that U.S. administrators have already classified as a “famine,” according to Samantha Power, Agency for International Development.
Then, on April 1, without confessing or notifying the US government, Israel attacked the Iranian consulate in Damascus, killing 13 people, including key members of the Quds Force, an elite unit of the Republican Guard.
After the April 1 attack, Iran’s supreme leader made it clear that retaliation would continue.
So what is different today from the months-long conflict in the Middle East? Direct confrontation between great powers is different from when states supply weapons or support to warring parties. Iran itself is now embroiled in war.
Consider how major powers deal with war.
Half a world away, Russia is attacking Ukraine with drones and missiles, and Western countries fear that NATO forces on the ground could cross the “red line” and trigger a nuclear attack by President Putin. Avoiding direct confrontation with Russia.
The interesting thing about “red lines” is that they are not necessarily thick red or transparent. It remains to be seen how Israel will react and what impact this will have on its actions in Gaza, where the invasion of Rafah is pending. Iran said it launched these retaliatory attacks in “occupied territory.”
While our focus is on Iran, there is still a notable ground war in Gaza.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said he has a date in mind for an invasion of Rafah, where about half of Gaza’s 2.3 million people have now fled, but he did not say exactly when.
But he said this in public. We have no intention of leaving them. You know, there’s a red line. Do you know what the red line is? That October 7th will never happen again. It won’t happen again. ”
Considering that Iran may possess nuclear weapons, Israel will be on high alert. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has spoken in the past about Israel’s “red lines that must not be crossed.” Speaking about Iran’s nuclear program in 2013, he warned that “they are approaching a red line that they should not cross.”
Redlining is always a difficult problem.
The price of issuing a red line and then withdrawing from the threat is a loss not only of public support but also of trust in the intended policy outcome.
Political analyst Steven Pifer writes: The point of drawing a line that must not be crossed is to demonstrate a strong, if not essential, interest on the part of the United States, and to demonstrate that there will be serious consequences if the line is crossed. ”
Whether the United States becomes further involved in this conflict depends on where the red lines are drawn.
Today’s events are characterized by the need to look in many directions simultaneously: Iran, Israel, Lebanon, Yemen, Syria, Ukraine. And also to ourselves.
In the future, you will need to track multiple drones heading to multiple regions of Israel. stay tuned.
Tara D. Sonnenschein is a senior fellow at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University.
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