There are less than three weeks until this year’s Copa America kicks off in the United States, and I can’t wait.
The 2023-24 season is officially over, and all that’s left for us to do is look forward to a mouth-watering summer of football.
But who will lift the Copa America trophy in the final? The tournament will take place in mid-July at the Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida. Will Lionel Messi be there again? Can Brazil or the hosts, USA, take them on?
We’ve ranked all 16 teams competing in this summer’s Copa America from least likely to most likely.
16. Costa Rica
Costa Rica have a three-time Champions League winner in captain Keylor Navas, but they will need a miracle from the 37-year-old goalkeeper to achieve anything in this year’s Copa America.
Their 3-1 defeat to a Messi-less Argentina in their final friendly in March was a clear indication of where they are at: they suffered a record 7-0 defeat to Spain at the last World Cup and are not in good form this time around.
Read: Copa America 2024: Full squad announced so far, 27 players named to USMNT preliminary selection…
15. Bolivia
Traditionally the scapegoat of the Copa America, Bolivia has failed to get out of the group stage in the last three tournaments and has won just one Copa America match since 1997.
There is little sign that this year will be any different. They have lost five of their six World Cup qualifying matches, including a 1-0 victory over underdog Andorra in their final game in March.
A 5-1 loss to Brazil and a 3-0 defeat to Argentina showed the team was not up to the task of competing with the favourites.
14. Panama
Panama, managed by former Leeds United manager Thomas Christiansen, have overplayed their stats in recent years.
They qualified for their first and only World Cup in 2018 and were runners-up in the Gold Cup last year, beating Canada and the United States on penalties in the semi-finals before putting up a strong showing against Mexico in the final.
But they will have to do better to advance from a group that also includes the United States and Uruguay — a big ask for a team that lacks top-tier talent.
13. Peru
Peru are the only winless team in CONMEBOL’s 2026 World Cup qualifiers and sit bottom of the table with just two points and one goal from their last six games.
Friendly wins over Nicaragua and the Dominican Republic in their last international matches should at least have restored some confidence, something they have rarely embarrassed themselves with.
Argentina narrowly beat Brazil 2-0, but Brazil narrowly escaped with a 1-0 victory in September thanks to a stoppage-time goal from Marquinhos.
12. Paraguay
Paraguay is not entirely lacking in talent, with star players such as Newcastle’s Miguel Almiron and Brighton’s Julio Enciso.
They have reached the quarterfinals in each of the last two Copa Americas, so it is not impossible for them to advance past the group stage.
But their recent record of one win and three losses in their last six games and seventh place in CONMEBOL World Cup qualifiers makes them unlikely to advance.
11. Jamaica
Jamaica reached the last four of the CONCACAF Nations League and was just one step away from beating the United States in March to reach the final, scoring an injury-time equalizer.
The Reggae Boyz, coached by former Icelandic standout Heimir Hallgrimsson, are yet to announce their squad but feature players with MLS and English football experience, including Bobby Decordova-Reid, Joel Latibeaudiere, Demarai Gray and Jamal Rowe.
Chelsea wonderkid Omari Hutchinson could be one of the players to watch after impressing on loan at Ipswich Town during their promotion-winning season.
Read next: 12 players you won’t believe never won the Copa America: Neymar, Maradona, Pele…
Take the quiz: can you name the most capped player from each South American country?
10. Chile
If I had to describe Chile in one word, it would be “stagnation.” It’s 2024, and still Claudio Bravo (41), Gary Medel (38), Mauricio Isla (36), Arturo Vidal (37), Alexis Sanchez (35) and Eduardo Vargas (34) are among those who are regularly called up to the squad.
Talk about squeezing everything out of a golden generation. Chile’s greatest ever team famously won back-to-back Copa Americas in 2015 and 2016, but it seems the old warriors are ready to step in one last time for some kind of The Final Dance scenario.
But their recent performances make that highly unlikely: They have failed to qualify for the past two World Cups and currently sit eighth out of 10 teams on the CONMEBOL 2026 qualifiers list.
They have won just one of their six qualifying matches, including a 3-0 loss to Venezuela.
With a difficult group including the defending champions, Argentina, it is hard to imagine a sad end for a generation of players who have made such great contributions up to now.
9. Canada
Thomas Christiansen and Marcelo Bielsa are not the only former Leeds United managers taking part in this year’s Copa America.
“The combination of new leadership within the Canadian Soccer Association and the potential of this dynamic player pool inspired me,” said Jesse Marsh, who was appointed earlier this month.
“I am ready and eager to take on this huge responsibility and my excitement and anticipation to get started is immense.”
Featuring quality players like Alphonso Davies, Cyle Larin and Jonathan David, this team is arguably the best Canada has ever produced.
But Marsh now has the task of transforming the team into a cohesive, winning squad.
They needed a 2-0 win over Trinidad and Tobago to qualify for the Copa America, which wasn’t entirely convincing, and a loss to Jamaica late last year cost them a place in the Nations League last four.
Take the quiz: can you name every team that has won the Copa America?
8. Venezuela
Argentina coach Fernando Batista’s team lacks any big name players apart from veteran vice-captain Salomon Rondon, but what they lack in stars they make up for in team spirit and organisation.
Venezuela are something of a rising force in South American football and have made a strong start to their 2026 World Cup qualification bid, losing just one of their six qualifying matches so far and ranking higher than Brazil in the standings.
Since a narrow loss to Colombia in September, Venezuela has remained unbeaten against Paraguay, Brazil, Chile, Ecuador and Peru.
They also avoided all the major powerhouses in their group, so they are guaranteed to at least make it to the knockout stages. What will be the surprise this year?
7. Mexico
For Mexico, this is something of a transitional period, and it is not necessarily a bright time.
At the last World Cup they missed out on the mandatory last-16 exit, failed to get out of the group stage in Qatar and more recently suffered a heavy 2-0 defeat to the USA in the Nations League final.
But at least they are the reigning Gold Cup champions, at least underscoring their credibility as a CONCACAF powerhouse.
It would be surprising if they aren’t at least competitive, but with Hirving Lozano and Raul Jimenez missing from coach Jaime Lozano’s provisional 31-man roster, they are sorely lacking in proven scorers.
6. Ecuador
La Tri has so far beaten Uruguay, Bolivia and Chile in World Cup qualifiers and drawn with Colombia and Venezuela.
They only lost one game in nine last year, a narrow 1-0 defeat to Argentina thanks to an incredible free kick from Lionel Messi.
Ecuador, with Moises Caicedo in midfield, is a stubborn team and will face Venezuela, Jamaica and Mexico in a crowded group, but they will be looking to finish top of the group, which means they will likely avoid a first-round matchup against favourites Argentina.
We call this the dark horse.
5. America
The United States reached the semi-finals in the last Copa America but ultimately failed to qualify for the 2018 World Cup.
Overall, the situation seems much healthier this time around, with homegrown talent in MLS only getting better and more American stars at Europe’s top clubs than ever before.
Gregg Berhalter led the U.S. out of the group stage in Qatar, and the hosts should at least do the same at this year’s Copa America, where opening draws against Bolivia and Panama have the U.S. in good position to cruise through to the knockout stage.
4. Colombia
Colombia is easily forgotten after a rather dismal qualifying run that saw them miss out on the last World Cup.
But they have reached at least the quarterfinals in the past four Copa Americas, finishing third in 2021 after beating eventual winners Argentina to a penalty shootout in the semifinals.
They currently sit third in the qualifiers for the next World Cup, ahead of Brazil, and are in good form for the 2024 tournament in the USA.
They are unbeaten in their six qualifying matches with three wins and three draws, and have also beaten Brazil, Mexico and Spain in their last six matches, including friendlies.
Brazil will be looking to exact revenge in their final Copa America group stage match, but Colombia are confident that easier games against Paraguay and Costa Rica will ensure their qualification by then.
Take the quiz: Can you name every Copa America top scorer since 1991?
3. Uruguay
Marcelo Bielsa coaching Darwin Nunez? Set your alarm for midnight. Uruguay will be a must-see in the Copa America. Can’t wait.
In previous World Cup qualifiers, Uruguay ended a 22-year unbeaten streak against Brazil, which also ended world champions Argentina’s 14-game unbeaten run.
If they can repeat that performance in the Copa America, they will have a good chance.
2. Brazil
In fact, looking purely at results, there is an argument to be made that Brazil should be lower than second place, but given their status, this is unlikely.
They sit Sixth They lost three straight matches to Uruguay, Colombia and Brazil earlier this season before being eliminated in CONMEBOL World Cup 2026 qualifiers.
But having moved away from the aggressive tactics of interim coach Fernando Diniz and replaced him with the more hands-on Dorival Junior, Brazil will be hoping to show a bit more of their usual self in the Copa America.
A 1-0 win over England at Wembley and a feckless 3-3 draw with Spain at the Bernabeu in their last international match suggest they are back on the right track, and with prodigious talents like Endric and Vinicius Junior it would be foolish to write them off.
Still, doubts remain about the balance of the midfield, with key man Lucas Paqueta doubtful of featuring after taking a gamble, while out-of-form Casemiro is completely out.
Meanwhile, Bruno Guimaraes is yet to replicate his impressive form at Newcastle on the international stage.
Read: Surprisingly talented players left out of Brazil’s Copa America squad
1. Argentina
The last time the United States hosted the Copa America, Centenario In 2016, Lionel Messi and Argentina looked as if they were carrying the weight of the world on their shoulders as they tried to end a protracted trophy drought.
They had lost to Chile on penalties the previous summer and suffered the same fate at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey.
Messi announced his intention to retire from international football after missing a penalty shootout and suffering a heartbreaking third final defeat in as many years.
Eight years later, Messi has shed his burden and headed to America leading a much-anticipated Argentina side, the reigning Copa America and World Cup champions.
They have proven themselves to be the strongest team in CONMEBOL and CONCACAF by a considerable margin, and the refreshing lightness of having nothing to prove should benefit them.
Looking at Messi’s stellar performances with Inter Miami, it would be foolish to be against him producing one last great tournament.
It’s a favorite for a reason.
