The contrast between the two parties in recent weeks couldn’t be starker. Republicans cheered Donald Trump’s Manhattan conviction by agreeing with him and arguing that bad news is actually good news. Meanwhile, Democrats greeted President Biden’s awful performance in Thursday night’s debate in the way only a Democrat can: by cranking up the anxiety by 11. Democratic-leaning pundits, newspaper editorial boards and many Democratic supporters are calling for Biden to step down.
Yes, it’s still a distant idea: Political buffs (I raise my hand, too) often get carried away with the prospect of an “open” or even contentious convention, even if it’s unlikely.
But the fact that it is being spoken about publicly and seriously is That many people feel this way certainly reflects the historical moment, but also the fact that it’s a very difficult situation for the blue side, with no big answers.
So let’s take a look back at where we are now.
How Bad Was Biden’s Debate?
So far there’s limited polling data on this, especially when it comes to how the Trump-Biden matchup might shake out, but a few findings stand out.
- The debate appeared to exacerbate Biden’s already troubling age issue: A CBS/YouGov poll found that the percentage of voters who say Biden has the mental and cognitive abilities necessary to run for president fell from 35% last month to 27% after the debate. Four in 10 Democratic Party Now he says he’s not the right person for the job.
- The poll also found that 45% of Democrats said Biden should give way to another candidate, and 72% of Americans said Biden shouldn’t run. A Suffolk University poll found that 41% of Democrats said Biden should be replaced.
- A CNN poll conducted immediately after the debate showed Biden’s favorability rating among debate viewers dropping from 37% to 31%, while Trump’s rose from 40% to 43%. (And these are The same people I was in contact with him before and after the debate.
- About 1 in 6 voters who supported Biden in 2020 said the debates made them more likely to support either Trump (3%) or a third-party candidate (13%), according to the Suffolk poll.
The debate may ultimately have a limited impact on head-to-head voting, which has been stalled through other major developments. And that could reduce the urgency of replacing Biden. But it appears to have deepened Biden’s existing disadvantage in an already weak campaign.
The battle for responsibility is in full swing. And everyone wants answers. Washington Post reporter Tyler Pager interviewed eight people involved in or briefed on Biden’s debate preparations, but his reporting is unlikely to reassure Democrats.
The Pager reported that Biden spent an entire week preparing for the debate at Camp David, and that his preparation included all of the major topics that were to be covered. But his response to the final question about his age, for example, bore little resemblance to that preparation.
So his aides were perplexed by his performance. Many felt they had never seen him collapse so dramatically. After all, Biden was a veteran of numerous debates as a senator, vice presidential candidate and presidential candidate. And they couldn’t understand why he would give a completely different answer to the age question than the one they had spent more than a week perfecting.
Biden’s allies and critics have called for him to step down, but Democratic officials have so far resisted those demands and pledged to move forward with him.
No Democrats have actually entertained that view, at least publicly (though Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, a likely replacement, drew attention on Monday when he said, “The president alone can decide the future of the president. … He is the nominee, and as long as he is the nominee, I will support him.”).
Part of that is because Democrats don’t want to undermine Biden, but a big reason is that it reflects how difficult and risky such a move would be: Biden would have to step aside and send delegates to the Democratic National Convention in August, after which delegates would choose a replacement candidate.
The most likely successor is Vice President Harris, who has serious political problems of her own. And imagine a convention without its first black vice president at a time when one of the party’s biggest problems is losing support among black voters.
Biden’s campaign suggested over the weekend that other candidates likely wouldn’t fare much better, pointing out that they were performing just as well as Biden in opinion polls, but many of them are little known to the American public.
Why is it so dangerous?
Even if Democrats can’t or won’t replace Biden, the fact that this discussion is even happening is extremely troubling to them, because it presupposes that Biden may not be up to the task – to be the candidate, but that would have to affect his ability to be president. And Biden’s own allies are casting doubt on all of this.
Moreover, the debate is charged with intense passion: Trump is a major force for Democrats who see him as an existential threat to the nation, and it will be hard for anyone involved to remain silent team players.
In other words, things could get a lot worse for Democrats before they get better. if It gets better.
President Trump’s Immunity Gain and Its Lasting Impact
Democrats were dealt another major blow on Monday when the Supreme Court handed President Trump an important, if not complete, victory in his immunity case, but the repercussions are likely to last well beyond the 2024 election campaign.
The Court has ruled that the president has broad immunity from criminal prosecution for acts performed as president: he has absolute immunity for actions taken in the exercise of “core constitutional powers” and a presumption of immunity for all acts of official conduct.
The court said the president does not have immunity from liability for acts outside of his office, meaning Trump’s federal election interference prosecution can move forward.
But before that happens, U.S. District Judge Tanya S. Chutkan must consider what is at stake in the case, a process that is likely to be fairly complicated and exclude important evidence against Trump, making it even more unlikely that Trump’s lawsuit will even be launched, let alone concluded, before the 2024 election.
But setting aside the 2024 election campaign, the ruling provides important protections for future presidents, including Trump, who has made clear he would be open to testing the limits of power again if elected to a second term. The two liberal justices in the dissent even wrote that the ruling could protect a president from being prosecuted for ordering the assassination of a political opponent or directing the military to stage a coup.
“In every exercise of civil power, the President is now a king above the law,” Justice Sonia Sotomayor wrote.
The decision brings new urgency to democracy issues in the 2024 campaign. But so far, Democrats have not been able to make much headway on those issues.
How awful was Biden?
So how bad were Biden’s debates, historically speaking?
In that poll, voters said Trump won the debate by 34 to 40 points.
The reasons for his bad reviews may be varied, have I’ve seen debates where candidates have lost so badly in the public’s mind — several times, in fact — and they were often the first debates.
According to a past CNN poll:
- Biden defeated Trump by 32 points (60-28) in the first 2020 debate.
- Hillary Clinton defeated Trump by 35 points (62-27) in the first debate in 2016.
- Mitt Romney defeated President Barack Obama by 42 points (67-25) in the first debate in 2012.
- And in the second debate in 1992, Bill Clinton defeated President George H. W. Bush by 42 points (58 to 16). Independent Ross Perot was deemed to have won by 15 percentage points.
From this list, you’ll notice that two of the four candidates who suffered major debate defeats ended up winning the election (Trump 2016 and Obama 2012).
