House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, a New York Democrat, has suggested to lawmakers that Harris would be the best choice to lead the party if Biden chooses to step down, according to two people familiar with the thinking, who spoke on condition of anonymity to detail private conversations.
Rep. James E. Clyburn of South Carolina, a senior House official and longtime friend of Mr. Biden, has said publicly he would support Ms. Harris if Mr. Biden leaves office, adding that his fellow Democrats “should do everything in their power to support Ms. Harris, whether she’s No. 2 or No. 1.”
Former Ohio congressman and presidential candidate Tim Ryan wrote an op-ed that he speaks highly of Biden but that Harris should be the Democratic presidential nominee after Biden’s stumble in last week’s high-profile debate. Some other candidates, including Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and California Gov. Gavin Newsom, have said they will not run for president this year but would support Harris if Biden drops out, said the people, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss private conversations.
Democrats’ growing endorsement of Harris as a potential nominee — almost always with the caveat that Biden remains the front-runner for now — is a sign they are predicting a world without Biden as their party’s standard-bearer while seeking to ease years of concerns about Harris’ ability to win the White House on her own.
That could remove one of the biggest obstacles Democrats have long had to the idea of replacing Biden: concerns that a toxic political anarchy would result as the party’s most promising stars compete for the nomination.
Many Democrats also worried that Harris would be a weak candidate, in part because of her unfortunate withdrawal from the 2020 presidential race before a single vote was cast, but picking someone to replace her as the first woman of color to hold the vice presidency seemed politically untenable.
Now, some in the party are rethinking the idea that Harris would struggle as the Democratic nominee, especially compared to Biden.
A CNN poll released on Tuesday found that voters favor former President Donald Trump over Biden, 6 percentage points ahead of Biden, 49 percent to 43 percent, roughly the same as before the debate. But Harris’ approval rating was higher than Trump’s, 47 percent to 45 percent, within the margin of error.
They also say Harris could energize black voters, young people and women, segments of the Democratic base that have become less enthusiastic about Biden, and some progressives say she could win back some voters disillusioned with Biden’s handling of the Israeli-Gaza war.
Part of the change in thinking is practical: With four months to go until Election Day on Nov. 5 and early voting starting in the weeks ahead, choosing anyone other than Harris would be a dangerous minefield of legal, political and financial risks, according to interviews with more than a dozen political strategists and people close to the presidential candidate’s decision.
Selecting a new candidate outside the incumbents would raise questions about the status of the delegates won by Biden and Harris, as well as the roughly $250 million in their campaign coffers, which cannot be easily, or perhaps even legally, given away.
Then there’s the issue of appearance: Harris is the first Black woman to hold national elected office. Pushing her aside for a white person, and possibly a man, could alienate Black voters who her campaign says are key to winning the White House in 2024 and expose a party that prides itself on diversity to accusations of hypocrisy.
Harris supporters also argue that many of the people often discussed as alternatives to Harris — Whitmer, Newsom, Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker, California Rep. Ro Khanna, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro and Maryland Gov. Wes Moore — are popular locally and within Democratic circles but unknowns on the national stage.
“The public wants the president to succeed, but it’s unclear where we’re going,” said Jamal Simmons, Ms. Harris’ former communications director. “So as the public starts to think, if something else needs to be done, what would that be? Who else could that be? And the math leads them to Kamala Harris.”
Despite the criticism, Harris is well known for her own presidential campaign and her experience as a 2020 Democratic candidate, where she faced fierce attacks, supporters say.
“I don’t know if Gretchen Whitmer going to Philadelphia will increase voter turnout, but I think Kamala Harris will,” said Mike Trujillo, a Democratic strategist and former Hillary Clinton aide. “I don’t know if Gavin Newsom going to Raleigh or Charlotte, North Carolina, will increase turnout among the party’s African-American base, but I think Kamala Harris can do that.”
Just as important, some strategists say, is that voters say they are not attracted to the current rematch between two older men who have already served in the White House, and Ms. Harris would offer a younger face and a symbol of change: Mr. Biden is 81, Mr. Trump is 78 and Ms. Harris is 59.
Still, many in the party remain unconvinced that Harris can win, saying not only did her presidential campaign falter in turmoil, but she also stumbled multiple times during her early days as vice president.
For example, Ms Harris struggled when President Biden asked her to work with leaders of Honduras, Guatemala and El Salvador to address the root causes of illegal immigration to the US and improve conditions there. (Her defenders say the president gave her an impossible task.)
Some worry that Ms. Harris’s reputation as a California liberal, whether justified or not, could alienate white moderate voters in the Midwestern suburbs that Democrats need to win. Those skeptics, including major Democratic donors, have suggested that Ms. Harris may have a harder time raising money than Mr. Biden.
Biden’s aides, meanwhile, have insisted for months that he is the Democrats’ best, if not only, candidate capable of beating Trump, but that has done little to bolster party members’ views of Harris’ prospects.
But several Democrats who spoke out against Harris noted that she had to balance her defense of Biden in post-debate interviews with a shaky debate performance watched by millions. “It was a thankless job that she had to do, and she did a very good job,” said one House Democratic leadership aide.
But overall, there are signs that a growing number of Democrats envision a relatively smooth transition of power to a Harris-led nominee, especially if Biden endorses Harris.
Party leaders and rank-and-file Democrats are also starting to actively discuss post-Biden scenarios. One Texas Democrat who will be a delegate to the party’s convention in August said it would be nearly impossible for someone like Newsom or Whitmer to win the nomination and then run a full-scale presidential campaign from scratch at this point.
That means the choice comes down to Biden and Harris, with Harris likely to be the better choice, this person said.
“There is no other option but VP Harris, so they would prefer to have her as VP rather than have the president, who may not be in very good health, hold the support as he seeks reelection and take on the challenge of getting in the polls and getting a boost in the approval ratings,” the representative said, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive issue.
As debate rages among Democrats, there are signs that Harris’ potential Democratic rivals are backing away, or are being encouraged to do so.
A person close to the Michigan governor said Whitmer will not run for president this year and has her “full support” of Harris. Newsom has also indicated he will support fellow Californian Harris. California lawmakers have said they don’t expect Harris to run for president this year.
“Kamala has to be at the top,” said one Democratic congressman from California. “Pairing her with someone new, dynamic, talented, I think that would be very invigorating.”
A person close to Mr. Clyburn said the Democratic official’s comments about Ms. Harris on MSNBC were explicitly intended to warn Democratic officials not to consider fielding anyone other than Ms. Harris if Mr. Biden leaves office. Mr. Clyburn is an influential figure in the party, and other Democrats have sent similar messages to colleagues who might be considering another rising star in their nominations, according to the person who relayed the messages.
Marcus Mason of the Democratic National Committee said Clyburn “voiced his support for the president during these extraordinary times and reminded voters and donors of his unwavering support for Vice President Harris, the second name on his shortlist.”
Ms. Harris has not been involved in any public strategy planning so far. Since the debate, she has been a Biden apologist, arguing everywhere the cameras could see that voters should focus on his successes during his 3 1/2 years in office, not his struggles on the debate stage.
In an interview with CBS News on Tuesday, Harris did not answer a question about whether she would be prepared to lead the country if Biden was no longer able to do so, saying she was “proud to be Joe Biden’s running mate.”
“Joe Biden is our nominee,” Harris said. “We beat Trump once, and we’re going to beat him again. That’s it.”
Biden’s campaign says discussion of who to replace him is pointless unless he withdraws, and they are trying to convince anxious supporters that despite his poor debate performance, he remains arguably the best choice to lead the party.
Biden campaign chair Jen O’Malley Dillon told donors at the Ritz-Carlton in Atlanta on Friday that “nothing has fundamentally changed our campaign” despite the furor over the debate, and in the days since, the campaign has touted its strong fundraising performance.
“Joe’s not just the right person for the job,” first lady Jill Biden said at a fundraiser Saturday in East Hampton, N.Y. “He’s the only person right for the job.”
While many Democrats privately view Harris favorably and support her as a symbol of change, they wonder how a politician who has struggled under even the brightest spotlight will handle a vulnerable campaign that could involve racist, sexist dog whistles and more blatant bigotry.
Ms Harris’ supporters say her actions over the past two years have done more good than bad: She became a leading voice on abortion rights after the Supreme Court overturned them. Roe v. Wade In June 2022, we will take a look at a central pillar of Democratic policy that Biden may be uncomfortable discussing.
Ms. Harris has traveled the country to denounce Republicans for undermining Americans’ rights, putting her at odds with some of the GOP’s most vocal anti-abortion advocates. She has met with dozens of world leaders, including Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, about six times and built a foreign policy portfolio that was previously lacking.
Supporters say Harris sits at the intersection of many of the principles the Democratic Party swears to stand for, including diversity and inclusion, gender and racial equality, and some Democrats are coming to the conclusion that removing her from the running roster could have a bigger impact than any campaign ad or message.
“Right now, women feel under attack on abortion,” said Simmons, Harris’ former communications director. “People of color feel under attack on diversity and inclusion. It would be difficult to choose a nominee that doesn’t include the first woman of color to serve as vice president.”
