President Biden and his reelection effort are embroiled in turmoil.
At this point, it is clear that Biden and his party cannot count on younger, black, and Hispanic voters as much as they have in the past. How much the campaign should be concerned about in the short term will affect how much the party should be concerned about in the long term, so recent polling trends showing a slight increase in Donald Trump’s approval rating are fodder for endless rumination. But to some extent, the issue at hand is fairly simple and reflects the shift mentioned above. However, this framing is not necessarily a good thing for Biden.
The new CBS News poll, conducted by YouGov, included a larger sample of young voters to more accurately gauge their views on the country and the election.
The poll found that young people in particular are less pessimistic about the state of the country: Respondents under 30, for example, were less likely to say they were very dissatisfied with the state of the country or that the economic situation was “very bad.”
To some extent, this is entangled with politics. Young people remain Democrats and more likely to support Biden than older Americans. In fact, the margin of support for Biden among people under 30 in the CBS News poll mirrors how they voted in 2020, according to verified polling by the Pew Research Center. The bigger shift here is not with Gen Z, but with millennials between the ages of 30 and 44.
Both youngest age groups were more likely to express dissatisfaction with the major party candidates than older groups.
As other polls have shown, the issues that interest young voters are similar to those that interest older voters, such as concerns about the economy, inflation and democracy. But there are differences on the issues below: Trump’s priorities on crime and the border are much less important to the youngest respondents than the oldest, while issues like climate change, abortion and gun control are considered more important.
This isn’t actually a new observation: We’ve long understood that issues like gun control and climate change are central motivators for younger Americans growing up in environments where those issues are much more salient. (For example, six in 10 respondents under 30 told YouGov they were very or somewhat concerned about gun violence during their school years, while only one in 10 respondents over 65 said the same.)
Asked who they think understands their concerns, about half of respondents under 30 said “both” Biden and Trump. But a majority of respondents over 65 said Trump understands the concerns of people under 30, which, again, may reflect the politics of that age group more than anything.
There’s a widespread (and not unjust) sense among younger Americans that people their age have fewer opportunities to succeed: Just under half say it’s harder to get into a good college than it was for older generations (even though younger generations are more likely to be college-educated), and majorities say other things in life are harder to achieve than previous generations, like getting a good job or buying a home.
Still, there is optimism: Six in 10 people under 30 say the American Dream is attainable, compared with four in 10 people between 30 and 44. (Six in 10 people over 65 say they have achieved the American Dream.) That’s partly because younger voters see the current dominance of older, white politicians as an obstacle: Two-thirds of those under 30 say things would be better if more young people were elected to office, and majorities say things would be better if more women and people of color were elected.
Those under 30 see themselves as a dominant element in pop culture, but feel at a disadvantage in the centres of political and economic power.
As an aside, this is one of the reasons we think social media and culture are a point of generational tension: Younger Americans, who outnumber Baby Boomers, are using their existing power and influence to pressure older Americans. For older Americans, this is also an uncomfortable novelty: Not only has the power of Baby Boomers gone unchallenged for decades, but the ability of young people to directly challenge those in power through social media and other online tools is a new development in the past two decades.
But this clearly works against Biden. Respondents overall, including younger generations, were more likely to be concerned about Biden’s age than Trump’s. But they expect more from government than Biden is able to deliver. Recent Pew Research Center data shows that young people are the ones who most want the federal government to do more, yet government is disproportionately unable to get much done.
Biden’s executive orders, such as those on student loans, have been well received by young people, who are more concerned about other areas where Biden’s power is being limited, like guns (see new developments from Tuesday), or that are necessarily incremental, like climate change.
That is why many young people say the state cannot solve the problem.
Biden is the head of government that younger voters are more likely to say they don’t trust. The president and his allies are telling voters that things aren’t getting better, and they could be getting worse. Younger voters are skeptical (and generally less likely to pay attention to the race).
These generational tensions existed before Biden, and they are creating the environment in which the 2024 election will unfold. Younger Americans could still turn out to vote and help Biden win reelection. Or they could stay away after years of frustration with the government doing little to address their concerns and watching older Americans hold most of the political power.
