Editor’s note: For more on the high-stakes battle for the House, tune in to “Manu Raju’s Inside Politics Sunday” at 8 a.m. ET and 11 a.m. ET.
CNN
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House Democrats are aiming for four more seats to regain the majority this fall, but big-spending outside groups are prepared to spend more seats than ever to win over Democrats.
House Majority PAC, a super PAC with ties to Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries, is spending $146 million in early television ads and advertising in about 60 media outlets across the country as Democrats prepare for a fierce battle with Republicans. It has secured $40 million in digital advertising in the marketplace. A limited number of House elections will determine the next majority.
Details of the advertising strategy, shared for the first time on CNN, provide the clearest roadmap yet for how Democrats see their path to the majority. The group’s leaders said most of the money would be focused on opportunities to win districts including 16 districts won by Joe Biden in 2020 and currently held by Republicans, but by Donald Trump.・The money will also be applied to seats that Democrats must protect, including the five districts won by Trump.
However, the group’s 2024 investment exceeds the $102 million originally set aside for advertising in the 2022 cycle and $41 million in the 2020 cycle, with aggressive ads including attacks on Republicans. He said the campaign is making the largest investment ever to fill key districts. On abortion and the collapse of the bipartisan border security agreement.
The group’s leaders said the campaign will target key voting groups such as Hispanics, Asian Americans and Black voters, as well as floating voters who have been turned away by President Trump and the chaos in the House. .
“We need four seats to regain the majority. That’s it,” House Majority PAC Chairman Mike Smith told CNN. “Four seats is very tough. It’s going to be a trench war. We’ll have to invest a lot of money, $186 million, but we have a clear path to making it happen.”
Smith argued that the initial investment amounted to “targeting,” and that number could grow even further as more money is spent in these key races later in the election cycle. Stated. Most of the money will be spent on flipping seats in New York and California, where “100%” represents the clearest path to a majority, Smith said. But he noted there is a chance to win Republican Rep. Ryan Zinke’s seat in Arizona, Michigan and even Montana. (Some advertising reservations may be canceled at a later date, and party committees and candidates often cancel as they reconsider their priorities.)
No matter what happens, Smith said, the next majority is likely to be narrow, given fewer seats in the chamber in gerrymandered districts.
“Rezoning has made the battlefield look smaller,” Smith said. “We expect it to be a relatively slim majority. …Certainly, the universe is getting smaller in terms of the most competitive seats.”
As part of the ad buy, House Majority PAC will spend $18 million in the Los Angeles media market, with some targeting Republican Reps. Young Kim, Michelle Steele, Ken Calvert and Mike Garcia, and Democratic Reps. Rep. Katie plans to defend her vacated seat. Porter has decided not to run for re-election. The group has secured $4.2 million in the Fresno media market that could be used against Republican Reps. John Duarte and David Valadao, and another $1.7 million in the Bakersfield, Calif., market. Securing this could hurt both senators.
The group also plans to spend an additional $16.1 million in New York City, with some of the money likely to go to Reps. Mike Lawler, Anthony D’Esposito, Nick Larota and New Jersey Rep. Tom Kean Jr. million are on hold, and Republican Reps. Mark Molinaro and Brandon Williams are expected to be targeted.
There are numerous other targets, including approximately $2 million to Rep. Jen Quiggans of Virginia, $5.8 million to David Schweikert of Arizona, and $2.4 million to Juan Siscomani of Arizona. The dollar is being targeted. About $2 million is scheduled for Omaha, Nebraska, indicating that Congressman Don Bacon is about to come under fire. The group has set aside $5.7 million for Philadelphia, which could target U.S. Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick and defend Democratic U.S. Rep. Susan Wilde. Another $10 million could go after Republican Rep. Lori Chavez Delemer of Oregon and Democratic Rep. Marie Grusenkamp Perez of nearby Washington state.
The Democratic super PAC is the first major House committee to announce its fall ad campaign plans. The Congressional Leadership Fund, a super PAC tied to former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and now tied to House Speaker Mike Johnson, is finalizing ad bookings for this fall.
But the Republican super PAC, which along with its affiliated outside groups has raised $142 million so far this cycle, is confident Republicans can maintain their majority.
Dan Conston, president of the Congressional Leadership Fund, told CNN: “We have an incredibly strong Republican incumbent in the toughest race, we have much better talent, and we have a political environment that appears to be favorable to Republicans. ” he said. “If we have the resources, we could have a majority this fall.”
House elections, in presidential election years, are often determined by who wins the most votes. And the weakness of Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden poses challenges for both parties. Particularly for Democrats in districts won by Mr. Trump, given Mr. Biden’s weak poll numbers, it could be a further drag on Democrats.
But Smith said he wasn’t worried about Biden’s numbers and argued that being at the top of the race would be an “added value,” pointing to the Democratic Party’s successes in recent election cycles.
“His approval ratings are very similar to what they were before, and we were able to beat them,” Smith said.
Biden’s candidacy could be difficult for five Democrats in Trump’s presidential districts in Alaska, Maine, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Washington, who have retired in Michigan, California and Virginia. There are four seats left vacant by Democrats.
Among the large sums the group plans to spend defending these seats are about $3.7 million to support Rep. Jared Golden of Maine and some $5.4 million to defend Rep. Marcy Capture of Ohio. $4.1 million in support from Rep. Matt Cartwright of Pennsylvania. While Alaska doesn’t have anything in place to help Mary Peltola, Smith said each media market has a different set of circumstances that determine the timing of ad buys, and that Alaska is a late-cycle He said he has suggested that it be included in the group’s list.
The group is also prioritizing early ad bookings in states with important Senate races and presidential battlegrounds, as ad time will be scarce in the fall.
For example, Zinke’s seat in Montana could be influenced by Democrats given the high-profile Senate race between Sen. Jon Tester and Republican Tim Sheehy. This is a seat that we believe has a strong presence. The group has secured about $4.2 million in the Montana media market.
“Montana-01 is a seat that I actually think is up for grabs,” Smith said. “That’s a seat where Sen. Tester, probably the best senator in Montana history, is trying to rally Democratic voters. We’ve already made investments at this point in terms of registering more Democrats. I am.”
One thing Democrats are bracing for is a ferocious effort by Republicans to attack them on immigration and Biden’s border issues. But they witnessed the recent victory of Democratic candidate Tom Suozzi in New York’s flag-waving seat once held by George Santos after he was slammed on immigration. Mr. Suozzi sought to take advantage of the Republican decision in the Senate to invalidate the border security agreement.
“It alleviates any kind of opportunity that Republicans would theoretically have. The fact that they refused to adopt this bill is basically a political gift,” Smith said.
CNN’s Sheden Tesfaldet and Natalie Grimm contributed to this report.
