So, how will this F1 season unfold? This weekend’s Canadian Grand Prix will be the start of a series of breathtaking races leading up to the summer holidays in August.
Talks will be had and deals will be made in the coming weeks, but who will end up where when F1’s annual game of musical chairs is over? With valuable seats at Red Bull and Mercedes still open in F1 2025, let’s take a guess at how this will all end…
Carlos Sainz moves to Mercedes
PlanetF1.com reported ahead of the Monaco Grand Prix weekend that Carlos Sainz has been ruled out of contention for a Mercedes seat in F1 for 2025, at least for the foreseeable future.
That last part is key. Mercedes may be excited about the potential of boy wonder Andrea Kimi Antonelli, but when push comes to shove, Toto Wolff, one of the most emotionally intelligent leaders in modern sport, is Really Is it so easy to put this much pressure on someone so young?
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Sainz has repeatedly spoken about the need to make the right decision about his future in F1 and take as much time as he needs to find the perfect destination and long-term career prospects for him.
if – if If he has the courage to hang in there a little longer, he might eventually be rewarded with a drive for Mercedes.
Sergio Perez to stay at Red Bull
Yes, we know he can be erratic, slow and uninspiring at times, but we should not underestimate how much it is thanks to Sergio Pérez that Max Verstappen has been able to reach such incredible heights in recent years.
It has been widely reported since Monaco that it is only a matter of time before Perez signs a new contract.
With the rise of McLaren and Ferrari – both of which have fantastic driver lineups – it would be a risk for Red Bull to commit to him now, but the dynamic between Perez and Verstappen means they should be cautious about discarding it unless absolutely necessary.
Being Sergio Pérez allows Max Verstappen to be Max Verstappen.
And if it ain’t broken, why try to fix it?
Esteban Ocon to Audi
When an F1 team boss openly threatens to bench a driver for a race, as Bruno Famin did with Esteban Ocon after the Monaco Grand Prix, the relationship is bound to go one-sided.
Despite his relative obscurity and reputation as a difficult team-mate, Ocon is thought to be high on Audi’s list of suitors if top target Sainz is unavailable.
Audi has a solid, if unspectacular, line-up of drivers, not to mention very tall, one year before their 2026 F1 entry, and we think he will be Nico Hulkenberg’s team-mate in 2025.
Oliver Bearman to Haas
From the moment Oliver Bearman stepped into Sainz’s Ferrari and finished seventh in Saudi Arabia in March, he looked destined to race for Ferrari customer Haas in F1 in 2025.
Although F2 results have been relatively modest so far this year, that night in Jeddah was enough for Bearman to know he was ready.
Yuki Tsunoda to Haas
With no future at Red Bull no matter what he does and Aston Martin unlikely to recruit him with or without Honda, is it time for Yuki Tsunoda to take his destiny into his own hands?
Having established a clear advantage over Daniel Ricciardo early in the 2024 F1 season, Tsunoda’s reputation is stronger than ever, and he recently revealed he is receiving interest from potential suitors.
When Tsunoda makes a final decision about his future, his fellow countryman and Haas team principal, Ayao Komatsu, is likely to have a major influence.
It’s tempting to imagine Komatsu assuming the role of Franz Tost, mentoring Kakuta and helping him smooth out those last rough edges.
Valtteri Bottas to Williams
Last month, multiple reports seen by PlanetF1.com suggested Valtteri Bottas was set to return to Williams in F1 in 2025.
Is he the most attractive option for Williams?
But has he made a noticeable improvement over the driver currently sitting in the second seat alongside Alex Albon? Absolutely.
Daniel Ricciardo remains at RB
If Red Bull were going to give up and drop Perez and put Daniel Ricciardo back in his old seat next to Max Verstappen, they would have done so towards the end of last year when Checo hit rock bottom.
But they didn’t.
And with Perez settling into a strong start to the 2024 F1 season, Ricciardo’s dreams of a return to Red Bull have vanished.
Daniel, now in his mid-30s, has stabilized his performance in recent weeks after a tough start to the new season, showing RB he can be a valuable asset to the team next year and perhaps beyond.
Liam Lawson at RB
If there was any justice in the world, Liam Lawson would already be racing for Red Bull in F1 in 2024 and putting himself forward as a future option for Red Bull’s senior team.
Helmut Marko revealed a few weeks ago that Lawson’s contract contains a clause that allows him to leave Red Bull completely if he is not promoted to a permanent F1 seat in 2025.
Rather than losing him, I think they will use him when Tsunoda moves to Haas.
Pierre Gasly to stay with Alpine
Few moves in recent F1 history have looked so right on paper (French driver, French team) yet ended up going so terribly wrong.
Once everyone’s favourite plucky underdog at AlphaTauri and a hero for just one day at Monza, Gasly has faded into the background of F1 since moving to Alpine for F1 2023.
He is out of contract at the end of the year but for some reason, and unlike his teammate who has dealt with a bad situation so far this season, he doesn’t appear to feature prominently in other teams’ thinking ahead to F1 2025.
While Ocon is looking for an escape route into the Alps, Gasly faces the possibility of being trapped exactly where he is.
Jack Doohan goes Alpine
What about the second seat in the Alpine? No one knows.
After a string of self-inflicted wounds in recent years, few of Alpine’s current drivers will be racing for the team next season, and if you close your eyes, you can picture the team starting over from scratch.
So will Alpine go for the financial option and offer an F1 lifeline to former junior Zhou Guanyu, who inevitably has clout in the Chinese market, or will they bring in Felipe Drugovic, one of the few F2/GP2 champions to have been denied a promotion to F1, as Gasly’s team-mate?
Or will Ocon’s departure give Jack Doohan the opportunity he has been patiently waiting for?
Doohan might surprise a few people.
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