Based on current opinion polls, a general election to be held in the coming months (dates not yet set) is likely to return a reinvigorated Labor Party to power after 14 years in the minority. It is seen as. These same polls suggest Labor could win a majority in the House of Commons that would match or exceed the strength it had after the 1997 general election that brought former prime minister Tony Blair to power. are doing.
The decline and decline of the Conservative Party is the story of a party that has grown weary and turned inward after more than a decade in power. Like the U.S. Republican Party, it is riven by factionalism, mired in scandal, and judged by many voters to be incapable of addressing the nation’s problems, all of which has been compounded by a series of violent leadership changes.
Since 2010, the UK has had five Conservative Prime Ministers, with three in 2022 alone. One of them, Liz Truss, lasted just seven weeks. This record is one more than the number of U.S. House speakerships passed by Republicans during the same period.
The fact that both the British Conservative Party and the US Republican Party have experienced division and infighting suggests that there are some similarities between the two parties. What they have in common is that they are both engaged in a debate about the future of conservatism. But the similarities have their limits. Although both parties are in turmoil, they are not entirely similar.
The Republican Party is united around former President Donald Trump. The Conservative Party (also known as the Conservative Party) is more or less divided. As one former British government official put it, the Conservative Party, at least for now, still operates on more “small-d” democratic principles, while the Republican Party has become a pro-Trump cult. But that doesn’t make the Conservatives any less of a problem.
If the Conservatives lose badly, as some polls predict, the question that will arise is whether they will be captured by the fringe. Some analysts fear that the Conservative Party will become more right-wing and hardline on issues such as immigration. , and increasingly anti-European. It could potentially become more Trump-like.
There will almost certainly be resistance to such a move, with party members and others rejecting extreme action and calling for the Conservative Party to return to something closer to traditional conservatism. The only consensus for now is that a tense internal war for the party’s future is looming.
British politics has experienced a tumultuous period over the past decade. A referendum on Scottish independence failed in 2014, a general election was held in 2015, a Brexit referendum was held in 2016 to take the UK out of the EU, another general election was held in 2017, and then a general election was held in 2019. 2022 elections, followed by two years of a pandemic and a rapid change of leadership in 2022.
The turmoil has left voters exhausted and, as one strategist put it, “sick of politics,” drawing yet another parallel with the United States. Strategists from both major parties say they are disillusioned with the current government and ready for change.
In some ways, the Conservative Party has never recovered from the Brexit vote. The vote to leave the EU was not intended for this to happen. The decision to leave the EU forced Prime Minister David Cameron, who had called the referendum in the hope that voters would say they wanted to remain in Europe, to resign as prime minister. His successor, Theresa May, struggled to implement the terms of the dissolution as leader of a deeply divided party. She resigned in the spring of 2019 when her party’s fortunes declined.
Prime Minister Theresa May was succeeded in 2019 by Boris Johnson, the bluffing former mayor of London. His combination of charisma, outbursts, enthusiasm, and big-government conservatism served the party well, at least temporarily, most notably in helping it produce a landslide victory just months after making the claim. Ta. top post.
This election saw the Conservative Party make significant inroads into areas of northern England that were once Labor strongholds. Conservative victories were similar to those gained by Republicans under Trump among white working-class voters in northern industrial states. These were areas of Britain where the economy was collapsing, immigration issues resonated, and anger against the elites grew. These were the constituencies that supported the Brexit referendum in 2016.
Labor inadvertently contributed to the Conservative Party’s success in 2019. The party was led by far-left politician Jeremy Corbyn, whose history and views turned off many voters, not only in working-class areas but also among suburban moderates. around big cities. As in the United States, the loyalties of suburban voters, particularly college-educated women, are shifting. But they did not agree with Corbyn’s politics.
Mr Johnson was neither disciplined nor serious enough to be an effective long-term leader as prime minister. He was ultimately ousted by a scandal known as “Partygate.” He and his staff were found partying inside No. 10 Downing Street, in breach of the lockdown imposed on British citizens during the pandemic. A 2023 inquiry concluded that Mr Johnson had repeatedly misled Parliament, accusing him of breaching Covid-19 rules.
After Mr Johnson was removed from power, the Conservatives turned to Mr Truss, who launched an aggressive and politically incorrect economic plan that called for significant tax cuts. The plan sparked a market backlash and put the country’s weak economy in an even tougher position. Truss was out just before unpacking his things.
At that point, the Conservative Party chose Rishi Sunak, a wealthy technocratic politician who had never faced voters in a general election and who had come without a mandate from the people, to be prime minister. Over time, he was unable to convince voters that he had the power or vision to turn the country around.
After years of turmoil and leadership changes, the Conservative Party could suffer a double reversal from 2019. The Conservatives will lose many of their newly won working-class constituencies, while also potentially losing suburban voters who are irresistible to Corbyn but not particularly wary. Keir Starmer, current leader of the Labor Party.
Starmer sought to rebuild the Labor Party and purge it of Corbynism and anti-Semitism. He has sought to focus on a broader electorate rather than a narrow group of official party members. He entered politics late after a career as a prosecutor. His roots are humble and his politics are more to the left than, say, Prime Minister Blair a quarter of a century ago. But during his time as leader, he has carefully moved the party closer to the center. Still, the question remains how he will govern.
Local elections will be held in the UK on Thursday. The Conservatives are expected to suffer significant losses, perhaps representing half of the seats up for re-election. But the two mayoral races currently in Conservative control are the ones that will attract the most attention. Defeats in these races will be seen as an indicator that it’s time to fire in the general election and press the panic button.
Current thinking is that Mr Sunak will call a general election later this year, perhaps around the time of the US election. However, his team has been asked to move the date forward to summer elections, depending on the results of local elections.
The Conservative Party is the most durable political organization in Britain’s long history, and is particularly adept at winning elections. That would prevent Labor strategists from becoming complacent in the face of strong opinion polls. It also gives Conservative strategists hope that the expected losses will not be as large as some have suggested. However, after more than 10 years in power, the Conservative Party is facing a situation that threatens to leave it for an extended period of time, and with that comes an existential crisis over its future.
On the other side of the Atlantic, Republicans will wait to see the results of the November election and the fate of President Trump to learn the timing and contours of the civil war they know is coming.
