Analyzes of Biden’s relatively poor performance among young voters often center on his support for Israel’s response to the October 7 terrorist attack by Hamas. Young voters are clearly more sympathetic to Palestinians in Gaza than older Americans, and many see Biden’s loyalty to Israel as a moral failure. Democrats’ concerns about how Arab Americans will view Biden in November extend to a broader group of young Americans.
However, these analyzes miss an important point. That said, Biden has long had trouble connecting with young voters.
In April 2022, I looked at Biden’s decline in approval ratings since taking office, noting that it was steepest among America’s youngest generations. At the time, I chalked it up in part to the overlap between young voters and independents, among whom Biden’s approval ratings were also plummeting. That’s partly because he needed to fall even further with those voters.
A YouGov poll following Biden’s inauguration shows a significant shift in how young voters view the incumbent president. The line below shows the average of his YouGov approval ratings polls over the past 30 days (individual polls are indicated by dots). We see an overall decline faster than voters throughout 2021, then a resurgence among young Americans in 2023. Then there was a big drop in the spring of 2023, then a slow rise, and then a recent drop again.
(For reference, the October 7 attack is indicated by a vertical dashed line.)
The resurgence was also seen among independents, but polling among those under 30 was even more volatile elsewhere. This in itself is not surprising. The subgroup of respondents under 30 years of age is relatively small compared to other groups, resulting in greater variation in opinions and greater variation in opinions.
Comparing polls of people under 30, independents, and people 65 and older with Biden’s overall approval rating, Biden’s approval rating among younger Americans was lower than his overall approval rating. It turns out that it was only for the period leading up to 2022. The recent decline could have a similar effect, but he’s not there yet.
The point here is not that we know why these numbers go up or down. That means the approval ratings have been consistently volatile and have not fallen any new low compared to Biden’s overall approval ratings.
A Gallup poll offers a different perspective on young Americans. In February, we reported on Gallup data showing that young Americans have shifted to the right since 2020. This is probably partly because Gallup targets all adults, not just registered voters (a group included in YouGov’s data). But notice how Gallup’s ratings of Biden’s support differ in 2021 and beyond. Young Americans consistently support Biden less than Americans overall.
Alternatively, if you present it in the same way as the YouGov data, you’ll see that the orange line is almost consistently below the midpoint. This means Biden has lower approval ratings among young Americans than Americans overall in most months. The opposite is true among older Americans.
Gallup’s data is monthly and runs through the end of March. April’s numbers are likely to fall further, reflecting the recent decline in YouGov. But the important point remains the same. Lower approval ratings than overall are not new.
As we wrote on Monday morning, the differences between the YouGov and Gallup data and who is included in the measures are important as we think about November. But the point here is different. It should be noted that Biden’s support among young Americans, and even the recent drop in support seen in YouGov data, is not a new development.
So Biden’s problems with young voters, to the extent he has them, don’t just stem from his handling of Gaza.
