The agreement presented by US President Joe Biden in his May 31 speech on the Gaza war is disingenuous and disastrous. His statements reflect the failed paradigms, illusions and wishful thinking that led to October 7. If the plan he described is implemented, it would pose an existential threat to the State of Israel.
President Biden’s deceptive and dangerous claims are numerous. Here are some of the most egregious: The US President began his speech by declaring that his goal was to end the war and “bring about a better ‘tomorrow’ in Gaza, where Hamas is not in power.” However, the rest of the speech did not contain any concrete steps or roadmap for removing Hamas from power. In fact, the opposite was true: the proposed outline would allow Hamas to remain in power and rebuild its military.
The deceptive dangers of Biden’s proposed hostage deal
President Biden has assured that “Palestinian civilians throughout Gaza, including North Gaza, will return to their homes.” He seems to be claiming that only civilians will return to North Gaza. But in reality, there is no way to prevent Hamas fighters from returning as well. These fighters are not in uniform, and their guns are hidden in the hundreds of tunnels that still exist in North Gaza.
This plan would allow Hamas to quickly regain control over every corner of the Gaza Strip.
Biden then stated, with unprecedented boldness, “The Israeli people should know that they can make this offer without further endangering their security, because they have already destroyed Hamas forces over the past eight months…” The reality is that Hamas still has many fighters and senior leaders left, even if they are now operating as small terrorist cells rather than battalions, or are waiting on the sidelines until the IDF withdraws.
Once reconstruction of Gaza begins, Islamic extremist groups will quickly regain their strength, and it is absurd to think that leaving Hamas in power does not pose a significant risk to Israel’s security, and especially to Israelis in the western Negev.
President Biden said the United States would “work to achieve a diplomatic solution that ensures Israel’s security” and that “an agreement would begin the reconstruction of Gaza in a way that Hamas cannot rearm.”
He ignores the inconvenient truth that diplomatic solutions have failed time and time again: they failed to stop Hezbollah from massively building up its arsenal after the second Lebanon war, and they failed to halt the massive arms smuggling from Egypt to Hamas after the last fighting in Gaza.
Similarly, the idea that reconstruction can proceed without the terrorist group rearming as long as Hamas is still in power is simply laughable. The current war in Gaza has revealed the widespread fact that supplies entering Gaza over the years, including for humanitarian purposes, have been used by Hamas first and foremost to build a terrorist infrastructure.
As for those opposed to such plans, Biden argued that “hostages are not a priority for them.”
This was a false and outrageous statement.
The fact that there are people who recognize that leaving Hamas in power would destroy Israel’s deterrent power and encourage countless murderous attacks and kidnappings against Israelis does not mean that they don’t care about the hostages. They simply believe that efforts to free them must be based on a practical understanding of the Middle East and an understanding of the psychopathic but intelligent enemy that Israel faces.
It is important to realize that while Hamas may be willing to release some of the hostages, they will never release all of them, as they serve as human shields for the leadership. Under the agreement Biden mentioned, the ceasefire would continue and Hamas would remain in power as long as negotiations continue over the second phase of hostage release, which could drag on for years.
Biden later pledged that “the United States will always ensure that Israel has what it needs to defend itself.”
But to be clear, Biden never said he supported Israel’s right to destroy a genocidal terrorist organization that seeks to destroy Israel.
He said Israel would have the right to shoot down rockets fired at its cities while its people hide in shelters. This is Biden’s doctrine on Israel: defense, yes. attack, no.
President Biden ended his remarks with the sentence, “It’s time to end this war and let ‘the next day’ begin.” This sentence encapsulates the failed paradigm that guided October 7. The idea that stopping the fighting will allow ‘the next day’ to begin is completely wrong.
If the fighting stops while Hamas remains in power, “the next day” will never begin. We will simply return to October 6th, except this time there will be zero deterrence, a strengthening of the terror ring along Israel’s border, and the abandonment of large swaths of Israel’s territory to the north and south due to the ongoing terrorist threat.
In fairness, it’s unclear how accurately Biden is outlining the Israeli proposal and how much he is putting his own spin on the deal. If Israeli leaders believe it is necessary and right to let Hamas win in order to return some of the hostages, they should stand up and say so clearly.
This dilemma is a heartbreaking one.
The fact is, as President Biden has stated, this agreement would pose an existential threat to Israel’s very existence. It would lead to countless terrorist attacks, kidnappings, destabilization, and war. Any decision by Israel, no matter how tough, must be made with a firm understanding of reality.
The author is a senior managing researcher at the Misghab Institute for National Security Studies.
