CNN
—
Presidential debates highlight the quadrennial dilemma for a country contemplating a new political direction, but they’re typically characterized by minor personality quirks, zeitgeist moments and gaffes rather than high-level ideological arguments.
Al Gore’s melodramatic sighs, George H.W. Bush’s thoughtless glances at his watch, Richard Nixon’s one-day gain in chin fat, and Donald Trump’s hulking frame towering over Hillary Clinton remain iconic years after the policy clashes of those debates are forgotten.
And while Thursday night’s CNN-hosted debate between President Joe Biden and former President Trump could be a theatrical and heated exchange between two men who openly despise each other, the policy meat of a presidential debate has rarely been as important as it is in this fierce White House race.
The United States finds itself at a critical juncture, with political and cultural conflicts at home deepening and a foreign policy crisis deepening. In November, America will have to choose one of two paths from which, as Robert Frost wrote in his poem, there will be no turning back.
Trump’s attempts to retake the White House less than four years after he attempted to steal the last election raise existential questions about the democratic system, while his conservative supporters propose dismantling the bureaucracy and politicizing leadership positions in the judiciary and intelligence agencies to balance one criminal conviction, three indictments, and the goals of a vengeful Republican candidate.
At the same time, millions of Americans are exhausted by high prices and borrowing costs even as the job market booms. The legacy of a once-in-a-generation pandemic has robbed the country of a sense of economic security that Biden promised to restore four years ago but that has yet to materialize for many. The Supreme Court’s overturning of constitutional abortion rights two years ago has opened up ideological and religious divisions over reproductive rights that Biden intends to exploit to hurt Trump. But President Trump is equally vulnerable in the immigration crisis at the southern border, where he is overrunning asylum laws ill-suited to deal with a new generation of migrants fleeing gangs, economic decline and climate disaster.
View this interactive content on CNN.com
Abroad, frightening cracks are emerging. The global system that has underpinned American power for 80 years is under extreme pressure from America’s adversaries, including Russia and the emerging superpower China, who are trying to destroy it. During his term, Biden focused on expanding NATO to counter Russia’s onslaught on Ukraine and its threat to Europe as a whole. The strengthened military and diplomatic pivot to counter China is one of the few areas of continuity with Trump, but Biden’s plans for a tariff war with China will go far beyond his efforts to prevent the escalation of a new Cold War.
Israel’s war on Gaza is constantly threatening to escalate, a painful weakness for the incumbent president as his rivals warn that World War III could break out. Trump’s main criticism of Biden is that he is weak, which may resonate with some voters. But Biden’s own plan is as vague as his improbable plan to end the Ukraine war within 24 hours or his unproven assertion that conflicts in Europe and the Middle East “would never have happened” if he were president.
And Trump seems more comfortable with authoritarians like Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, who dream of crushing American power, than with the democratic allies America liberated in the last world war. Some former White House officials have warned that if Trump returns to the White House, he might try to pull the U.S. out of NATO, the linchpin of Western security. Voters must therefore choose between Biden’s traditional internationalist foreign policy and an intensification of Trump’s populist isolationism, which has transformed America from a bastion of global stability into one of its most instability.
Nicoletta Stoyanova/Getty Images
Soldiers from the Ukrainian 57th Motorized Brigade operate at an artillery position near Vovchansk, Kharkiv Oblast, Ukraine, June 9.
For the first time in American history, two presidents will stand side by side on a debate stage, with their accomplishments judged by the public. (The only time a former president and a current president ran for a second term was in 1892, when the candidates did not actively campaign, much less debate.) A showdown between incumbents is something most voters wanted to avoid. And so far, their fears seem to be coming true. The tie means that the two candidates, both around 80 points, are struggling to show that they have policies that will solve the country’s problems. And so far, neither has offered a vision for a roadmap to a future where millions of Americans will live after they’re gone.
Trump’s first term and poor legislative record suggest he sees the presidency more as a whimsical platform than a policy laboratory. But conservative groups allied with his campaign have drawn up a plan that, if implemented, would transform how America is governed. And a second term, stripped of the restraining influences that have frustratingly chafed the 45th president, means he’ll have much more freedom to do what he wants.
The irony of Trump’s proposals for his first and second terms is that while he is shifting the Republican Party away from its pro-business traditions and in a more pro-working-class direction, he is pursuing policies that disproportionately help wealthy Americans like himself. In his first term, he instituted tax cuts that favored the wealthy and wants to extend them if he returns to the White House. Yet earlier this month, he pledged to repeal the federal tax on tips in an effort to win support from hospitality workers in the key state of Nevada. And while he has proposed strict immigration policies that include mass deportations of illegal immigrants, Trump has also said he wants to expand green cards for foreigners who graduate from U.S. universities, a move that could appeal to increasingly influential South Asian voters.
Former President Trump has also signaled his intention to fire Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, which may raise concerns about political interference in the central bank but may be welcomed by Americans who want lower interest rates. Former President Trump is also working hard to stoke nostalgia for the Trump economy, which was thriving before the pandemic-induced economic crisis.
If Biden focuses his speech on the economy rather than bombastic theatrics in his Thursday night speech, the former president may be able to reconnect with an audience alienated by his more extreme actions but eager to see the economy back on track. Still, he is likely to argue that parts of Trump’s plan are economically disastrous, such as a proposed 10 percent tariff on foreign goods that some economists warn could reignite an inflation crisis and raise prices for American consumers.
View this interactive content on CNN.com
Biden has an active policy machine.
Several times a week, the president or Vice President Kamala Harris are highlighting new aspects of the administration’s attempts to keep to its pledges to revive the economy, support working Americans, reduce health care costs, cap drug prices, create jobs, fight climate change, protect abortion rights, reduce student loan debt and lower energy costs.
But it is the curse of the Biden administration that his efforts get little recognition, despite a legislative record as impressive as any Democrat since President Lyndon Johnson. Part of that may be down to the fact that measures like Biden’s bipartisan infrastructure plan could take years to fully take effect.
While claiming credit for an economy that has recovered more strongly from the COVID-19 emergency than other developed countries, President Trump has yet to find a way to acknowledge the pain that many voters still feel. Rising food prices are a literal and psychological barrier — even if the worst inflation crisis in 40 years has now abated. High interest rates put in place to lower the cost of living still make it hard for many Americans to buy a new car or get a mortgage. So Biden will need to convince voters in Thursday night’s debate that he can make their lives better, right away.
View this interactive content on CNN.com
He’s already tried it once: In his State of the Union address in March, Biden praised the nation for writing “the greatest comeback story ever.” But it didn’t help him politically. An ABC News/Ipsos poll conducted in late April found that voters trusted Trump more than Biden on the two biggest issues, the economy and inflation, by 46% to 32% and 44% to 30%, respectively.
Post-match coverage of Thursday’s debate is sure to focus on the rival candidates’ best barbs, quick remarks and stamina and energy. But the most meaningful impact of the Trump-Biden showdown will only begin to play out after noon on Inauguration Day on Jan. 20, 2025.
