By the time President Biden hung up the phone, he had finally delivered on the threat he had denied for months. He told Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that Israel must change course or the United States would do so.
But Mr. Biden’s aides said that even though the meeting ended Thursday, Mr. Biden had reason to hope that his message got across and that he would not have to carry out his threats after all.
In the call, Biden outlined several specific commitments he wants from Israel to avoid losing support for its war against Hamas. Rather than push back, Netanyahu promised to announce more humanitarian aid to Gaza within hours and was willing to comply with Biden’s other demands in the coming days, according to people briefed on the call. showed that.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government followed suit later that night, approving the opening of a major port and another land crossing for food and other supplies. The White House expects Israel to soon issue new military procedures to avoid killing civilians and aid workers, and administration officials said this weekend that Israeli negotiators will meet CIA Director William J. Burns. , is closely monitoring negotiations in Cairo with Egyptian and Qatari mediators. Mediate a temporary ceasefire again.
It remains unclear whether it will be enough to avoid a breakdown that Biden never wanted in the first place. Administration officials insisted the president’s threats were not mischievous and that the allegations against Prime Minister Netanyahu were “very harsh” (in one phrase). At the same time, officials said Biden did not specifically threaten to limit or cut off U.S. arms supplies during the call, as some Democrats have urged, or set deadlines for Israeli action. He said he did not set it up. “Or else” remained unclear and undefined.
“Biden put Netanyahu on probation,” said Aaron David Miller, a longtime Middle East peace negotiator now at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. The president “didn’t want to fight, and certainly gave him a test that he could pass, in terms of humanitarian aid, and perhaps negotiations with Hamas.” America’s red line has a way of turning pink. The only question is: Does Prime Minister Netanyahu want to fight?
Some, at least some Israelis, suspect he is not. Just as Mr. Biden can now tell recalcitrant members of his party that he will take a stronger stance than they have forced upon him, Mr. Netanyahu can also use the enthusiasm from Washington to force him to do otherwise. may be able to bring about changes that are politically problematic. .
“By signaling a possible shift in U.S. policy towards Israel, President Biden has given Prime Minister Netanyahu the leverage to overcome right-wing radicals within his government and secure approval of a significant increase in humanitarian aid to Gaza. “It gave me strength,” said Michael B. Kennedy. Oren is a former deputy minister in Netanyahu’s administration and Israel’s ambassador to the United States.
None of this means that the two countries can definitely avoid a climactic conflict. The two countries’ outlooks, goals, and political pressures regarding the war with Hamas are very different. Mr. Biden is ready to end the war as soon as possible, but Mr. Netanyahu is interested in prolonging it. Over the past six months, many moments that looked like turning points turned out to be illusions.
But the White House’s hope is that the president may have bought himself some room for maneuver. Officials on Friday hailed Israel’s first announcement on humanitarian aid as proof that Biden can deliver.
“There have been some welcome announcements from the Israeli side,” White House national security spokesman John F. Kirby told reporters on a briefing call. “They acted on the president’s request that came out of that phone call. You’re starting to figure it out for yourself.”
Still, Kirby was careful not to declare victory. “These were just announcements,” he said. “We have to see results. We have to take the time here to see a sustainable deliverable. It’s not enough just to announce, but to meet some of the very specific demands from the president. We are proceeding accordingly.”
In his only public comments since the call, Biden offered little detail about his thoughts. Asked by reporters before boarding Marine One for a visit to Baltimore whether he had threatened to cut off military aid if Israel didn’t respond to his concerns, the president simply said, “I asked them to do what they had to do.” answered. But he scoffed at his idea that he might abandon Israel. “Is that a serious question?” he said.
Some Republican critics accused him of exactly that. Mike Johnson: “President’s ultimatum should be directed at Hamas, not Israel” wrote on social media. “Hamas is resisting a ceasefire, causing unnecessary bloodshed, and refusing to release Israeli and American hostages. By making our support conditional, Biden weakens an ally in existential crisis. You shouldn’t let it happen.”
Meanwhile, at least some Democrats weren’t convinced Biden had done enough. Sen. Tim Kaine of Virginia praised the president for persuading Israelis to facilitate more humanitarian relief. “But this was an obvious solution that should have been done months ago,” he said in a statement.
“The current approach is not working,” he added. The Biden administration should “prioritize transfers of defense weapons in all arms sales to Israel, while refraining from transfers of bombs and other offensive weapons that could kill or injure civilians or humanitarian workers.” .
Biden’s threat to Netanyahu comes after the killing of seven World Central Kitchen aid workers this week, which Kirby said “disturbed” the president. Israel sent its findings to the United States on Friday and dismissed or disciplined five military officers involved in the attack, but none of the measures satisfied critics who called for an independent investigation. Kirby said U.S. officials would “carefully consider” the Israeli investigation before making a decision.
“This incident and the call between Biden and Bibi signal an important shift in priorities, with civilian protection and humanitarian aid becoming more of a priority,” said Brian Katouris, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute think tank in Washington. There is a possibility that it is.” Netanyahu’s nickname. “However, it remains to be seen what impact this will have. We will have to wait and see how this develops in the coming weeks.”
The extent of American influence over Israel’s war effort is complex. Biden has repeatedly defended Israel’s right to respond to the Oct. 7 Hamas terrorist attack that killed an estimated 1,200 people. But Biden has increasingly complained in recent weeks that Israel’s military operations are taking a toll, as the death toll in the Gaza Strip is reported to have topped 32,000. As he once put it, it was “too much.”
He specifically warned Israel against sending troops to the southern Gaza city of Rafah, where more than 1 million refugees have fled the war without a credible plan to protect civilians. Prime Minister Netanyahu has shamelessly defied Biden in public, declaring that he plans to oppose Rafah in pursuit of the Hamas leadership regardless of U.S. pressure. However, nearly two months have passed and he has yet to take action, pending further talks with the Americans.
Khaled Elgindi, a former adviser to Palestinian leaders in past peace talks with Israel, said Biden’s change is noteworthy, even if it’s late. “The tone of the president’s statement is clearly more concise and harsh than anything we have heard thus far,” he said. The link between U.S. policy and changes in Israel is “very different from what we normally hear” from Biden administration officials who say they don’t tell sovereign nations what to do.
“Well, it’s like we’re telling them what to do now,” Elgindi said. “That being said, it’s not clear exactly what ‘or else’ will be.” Will they actually withhold military aid? I have a doubt. Is there any chance that the UN Security Council will approve a stronger ceasefire resolution? “Maybe.”
Frank Loewenstein, who served as special envoy for Middle East peace under President Barack Obama, said the killing of the World Central Kitchen employee triggered a visceral reaction in Biden.
“Biden was clearly angry enough to get Bibi’s attention,” he said. “But the jury is still out on whether anything has actually changed for us or the Israelis. At this point, it’s still mostly rhetoric. Bibi’s political pendulum has swung within the coalition government. There was a temporary shift from pandering to extremists to appeasing Biden.”
But the measures announced so far are “really small steps and will not meaningfully change the dire situation of civilians in Gaza,” Loewenstein added. It would be typical for Bibi to announce the minimum measures necessary to avoid serious consequences and delay the rollout until the heat has subsided. ”
