In his latest paper, Bernstein argues that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s party is gaining ground in states with low penetration, even though polling data shows the incumbent Bharatiya Janata Party is almost certain to win 390 to 400 seats. He said he did not think the seat gains would be significantly greater than the seat losses in India. others. Bernstein added that while a slight uptick seems likely, a significant deviation above or below the 2019 tally of 350 is unlikely.
Bernstein said numbers close to 2019 values ​​could cause a short-term negative reaction because expectations are set so high. “I believe that post-election profit-taking is certain to occur in any case, and the election result will only serve as a trigger point for the inevitable,” he said.
Bernstein said that ultimately the macro story will take over, but some downside is to be expected if the macro economy remains healthy.
Bernstein said 2024 will see record valuations in the Indian market, especially for small and mid-cap stocks.
The report said pre-election euphoria is growing, with previously set hopes of continuation of government further heightened by the possibility that the ruling coalition could win more than 400 seats. .
This was initiated by the incumbent political party and was justified through TV media polls, which claimed to have given the NDA coalition a whopping 411 seats.
“The NDA won 350 seats in the last election, but where will the additional 50 seats come from? The most obvious answer is the southern belt, where in 2019 the NDA won only 5 out of 101 seats. But even that won’t be a cakewalk.”The foray into Kerala is historic, but even in Tamil Nadu we can’t expect great results,” Bernstein said.
Moreover, I felt that AP, Telangana, West Bengal and Odisha should also benefit. “Many of them are expected to be close races with wildly swinging seats,” the magazine said.
Bernstein said implementing Plan 400 will be much more difficult than setting goals because there is so much to lose and so little to gain.
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