The stock market’s reception of the ongoing election shows some level of investor tension and fatigue, with voter turnout across three stages currently sitting at just over 66 percent. However, the Bernstein researchers emphasized that there is no clear correlation between turnout and elections based on past elections.
“An election becomes a market-defining event only in the case of a significant decline in vote share (more than 5 percentage points) and significant anti-incumbency. The fact that opposition parties are more united nationally this time around Only at this stage should it begin to have a meaningful impact,” the Bernstein report said.
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“Assuming a slight decline of 2.5 per cent in the overall vote count and assuming INC gets 75 per cent anti-incumbency, the vote share of the BJP remains at 32.7 per cent compared to INC’s 22.2 per cent. Therefore, even if it is anti-incumbent, a slight drop in vote share will not lead to an electoral surprise.Given the alliance of the Indian Union, the opposition party will gain more seats, but the Bharatiya Janata Party will have more seats. “It is unlikely that there will be a significant decrease.”
A common problem for brokerages is to look at immediate turnout data after a phase ends and compare it to 2019 data because same-day or next-day available data does not include votes. He pointed out that it was fair. “Once the ECI released the final data for the first two phases, including the number of votes cast (Phase 1 was delayed by 11 days and caused a lot of fuss), turnout increased by 5.5 percentage points, closing a significant gap,” he said. Ta.
Meanwhile, the impact on ballots this time around is reportedly greater than in past years. Moreover, the brokerage notes that a little-cited fact behind the decline in voter turnout is that the number of net voters in the country increased by almost 60 million between the 2019 general election and 2024. He said there is. Nearly 20 million of them are newly registered voters. Age group 18-29. “Although the percentage may decline slightly, the absolute number is likely to increase.”
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Also read: Signals from low turnout
Bernstein categorized voters into three categories: pro-NDA, anti-NDA, and swing voters. He said these contributed to the BJP’s victories in 2014 and 2019. “If you look at all general election data since 1999, we estimate that the core voter base for both parties is about 18 to 20 percent, which is the lowest.”
Lack of relevance to issues on the ground or to opposition parties can deter unstable voters from voting. The brokerage observed that there were not enough swing votes in favor of INC in 2019 (barely 0.5%). “So, assuming the core voters are mostly there, the loss due to swing voters will probably be to the NDA.The second point to remember is that the BJP could lose vote share due to voter abstention and anti-incumbent factors. “The INC can only gain from anti-incumbency losses (abstention votes do not directly benefit),” he added. .
Lok Sabha election results will be declared on June 4, 2024.
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