Michelle Obama has previously said she won’t run, but eight years is a long time in politics, and the current state of the Democratic Party makes the unlikely possible.
Michelle Obama, former first lady of Barack Obama, has emerged as the Democrat most likely to win a head-to-head presidential election against Donald Trump in November, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll. In a hypothetical poll, she had a 50% approval rating, while Trump’s was 39%.
A Rasmussen poll found that Michelle Obama was seen as the favorite to succeed Joe Biden as the Democratic candidate, with 47%.
Democrats must act fast
With just a month left until the virtual roll call on August 7 ahead of the Illinois national convention on August 19, Democrats have very little time to decide on Biden as their nominee. Concerns about Biden’s candidacy turned into uproar after the presidential debate on CNN on June 27. Biden was seen forgetting answers and pausing to speak, especially at the beginning of the debate.
But replacing Biden at this stage is easier said than done, unless Biden himself chooses to step down, because party rules require delegates to use their “conscience” to back the candidate they pledged their support to in the first place. In this case, the vast majority of delegates would go to Biden, who has won virtually every contest by a landslide, with only a loss to Jason Palmer in the American Samoa caucuses causing him to back down.
The rules state: “No delegate at any level in the delegate selection process may be required by law or party rules to vote against the declared presidential choice at the time the delegate was selected,” and add: “Delegates elected to a national convention with an allegiance to a presidential candidate must, in their conscience, reflect the feelings of those who selected them.”
Biden is ‘absolutely’ not going anywhere
But Biden and the White House have said he has no plans to resign. At a press conference on Tuesday, press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said “absolutely not” when asked about the possibility of Biden resigning. The spokesperson added that Biden understands this was not his best night, and it’s natural for people to ask that question. “But we can’t forget his track record and what he’s accomplished. We can’t forget what he’s done for the American people for almost four years, and that’s important, too.”
Democrats supported Biden despite his age and health concerns because he beat Donald Trump in 2020 and they believed he could win again in 2024. But that confidence has wavered after the first presidential debate.
Meanwhile, a Reuters/Ipsos poll showed Vice President Kamala Harris had 42% support if she were to face Trump head-to-head. A CNN poll showing Biden six points behind Trump puts Harris just two points behind him, fueling speculation she could be Biden’s preferred choice to replace him if necessary. But Harris’ office said in a statement that “Vice President Harris looks forward to serving a second term alongside President Joe Biden.”
Others named include California Governor Gavin Newson and Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer.
(Maha Siddiqui is a journalist who has covered a wide range of public policy and international affairs topics.)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author.
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