Andrew Warren is running. So, does he have a chance?

Last year’s Martin Luther King Jr. Parade in Tampa (a must-attend event for local Pauls) was attended by Governor Ron DeSantis, appointed by Governor Ron DeSantis after he ousted Andrew Warren from office in a political firestorm. Hillsborough State Attorney Susie Lopez appeared.

as Lopez was handing out beads and waving to parade participants, while Warren was just down the parade route, greeting the crowd and taking photos. Warren, who was fighting his ouster in court. A T-shirt proclaiming him to be the Hillsboro State Attorney. Lopez’s claim to office was spelled out across his sun visor.

Warren announced Tuesday that she will seek to unseat Lopez in the November election. Both candidates will argue that Officers appropriate for the position each person wishes to maintain.

Warren previously said she would not run, but said she changed her mind after a recent favorable federal appeals court ruling.

Candidates have already set their sights.

“She enters that building every day pretending to be a deputy state’s attorney,” Warren said. “This is a slap in the face to the voters of Hillsborough County and an attack on the rule of law.”

Ryan Smith, a senior strategist for the Lopez campaign, said, “Warren is tolerant of crime and is more concerned about experimenting with the law than upholding it.”

Contrasting visions of criminal justice

During her five-year term, Warren, a Democrat, embraced alternatives to prosecution and enacted policies aimed at improving the fairness of the justice system, correcting practices that burden the poor, and preventing prosecutorial errors.

Lopez, a Republican, favors a more traditional approach of harsh prosecution. This includes pursuing cases for both major and minor crimes and seeking greater rigor. Impact on criminals and powerful people Law Enforcement Assistance.

Mr. Warren’s philosophy has made him a champion of progressives and attracted the attention of conservative Republican governors, who have accused him of refusing to enforce the law.

Meanwhile, while Lopez has received strong support from police, he has also faced skepticism from the local African-American community and others. One of her first actions was to reverse a policy enacted by Warren that discouraged prosecution of incidents stemming from police bicycle and pedestrian stops, a practice linked to racial disparities.

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As WTSP Channel 10 first reported, when she spoke with the local NAACP in March, she received a frosty response.

“You don’t understand how law enforcement treats us,” Hillsboro Chapter President Yvette Lewis said at the rally.

Ruiz later told the Tampa Bay Times that he was troubled by Lopez’s seeming deferred decision-making to law enforcement.

“We need someone to look at the case with two eyes open, not one,” Lewis said. “We all want to live in safe communities.”

There is no doubt that his tough stance on crime will resonate with many voters. Republican State Committeeman Tom Gaitens of Hillsboro said it’s a “great time to be a law-and-order candidate.”

Former Tampa Mayor Bob Buckhorn, a Democrat, said law enforcement “has Susie firmly under his wing, and that’s going to be important in this election.”

Still, Warren is not ignorant of the importance of top prosecutors taking an anti-crime stance. The first bullet point of his campaign announcement touts a decline in crime during his time in office.

“I made a promise and I kept that promise,” he said.

Lopez has money. Warren has a job to do.

Lopez, who has been running since November, has both the money and the support.

As of this month, her total campaign fundraising totaled about $500,000.her supporters They include Hillsborough Sheriff Chad Chronister, former Tampa Police Chief Brian Dugan, and a number of prominent local attorneys.

But will that support translate into votes?

“In races like this, the people who know the athletes best are often the ones least able to ask who is going to win,” said Paul Sisco, a Tampa attorney who is helping Lopez. he said. “We know what lawyers are thinking, and that’s a small percentage of the votes in Hillsboro. You’d be much better off asking someone on a tractor in Plant City than someone in a courthouse.” Is good.”

Buckhorn predicts voters in a variety of camps. People who were very angry that DeSantis removed Warren will vote for him, and some of them may be Republicans. And people who think Susie Lopez is doing a better job,” he said.

He said turnout is everything, as issues including marijuana and abortion on the ballot are expected to drive voters to the polls.

Notably, Warren’s announcement included a reference to “a woman’s right to choose.”

Will there be a lot of money coming in?

Shortly after declaring her candidacy on Tuesday, Warren posted a social media message asking for donations through ActBlue, a national Democratic fundraising platform.

A newcomer to politics in 2016, much of his financial support came from outside Hillsborough County. Rumors circulated that billionaire philanthropist George Soros is known to have given support to other progressive prosecutor candidates across the country. Warren acknowledged in a 2020 interview that some of the money she received from state Democrats may have come from: Mr. Soros said he had little insight into that.

He gained even more local support when he won re-election over Republican Mike Perotti.

In an interview with the Times this week, Warren did not elaborate on where the funding would come from.

“I definitely think there’s going to be state money going into this race…People who don’t like (DeSantis) are going to bring in money,” said Mark Proctor, a local Republican election consultant who works on judicial elections. I guess so,” he said. “On the other hand, the pro-DeSantis side may see some money coming in.”

Mr. Proctor predicted that local lawyers supporting Mr. Lopez might also provide funding for Mr. Warren.

“I think (Warren) had a tremendous amount of support,” said former Tampa Mayor Sandy Friedman, a Democrat.

Ione Townsend, chair of the Hillsboro Democratic Party, said Warren’s delay in running could hurt her financially. However, she doubts his suspension will strengthen support for him.

“My sense is that this story has spread nationally to some degree,” she said. “He worked in Washington. So I think there’s going to be some money coming in from his outside connections.

“But I think the majority will come from Hillsborough County,” she said.

In Hillsboro, Democrats have a slight advantage over Republicans in the number of registered voters. During the years that Warren was president, county elections swung Democratic. That all changed in 2022, when DeSantis easily won Hillsborough County in his re-election bid, with several local Republican candidates riding on his back. Now, he predicts Hillsboro will soon lean Republican.

Another factor that could affect the race is that Warren has several opponents in the Democratic primary: First-time candidate Elizabeth Martinez Strauss is a Tampa lawyer and Democrat who entered the race when Warren’s plans were unclear.Strauss said unless the court reinstates Warren by Friday, he will remain a candidate. Qualifying deadline — an unlikely prospect.

DeSantis’ firing of Warren generated strong opinions.

Ralph Fernandez, a prominent Tampa lawyer, said he transferred $10,000 to Warren’s defense fund the day after DeSantis suspended her.

“I have known Susie Lopez for decades and she is an amazing person,” Fernandez said in an email. “But the rule of law reigns, and I will proudly support Andrew and help him regain his seat as the people’s rightful choice. Sign-up is complete and the fundraiser is now open. started.”

At the start of Lopez’s campaign last year, she told an audience that DeSantis had taken “one of the boldest moves in the history of Florida politics” by suspending Warren and appointing her.

A whistle was heard from the crowd. “Good job!” someone shouted.

How we got here

It all started in August 2022, when the governor abruptly suspended a twice-elected state attorney and former federal prosecutor. DeSantis noted that Warren signed a statement with other leaders across the country pledging not to prosecute cases involving abortion or transgender health care. He also cited Warren’s policies that discourage prosecution of some low-level crimes.

desantis He was replaced by Lopez, a longtime Tampa prosecutor and political ally.

Warren sued DeSantis in federal court, alleging that his suspension violated his right to free speech. He criticized it as a political stunt by the governor, who was preparing to run for president. The judge generally sided with Warren, but concluded that he did not have the authority to reinstate her.

Warren appealed. In January, while the case was still pending, he announced he would not run for re-election because if he won, DeSantis would likely be suspended again. Two days later, an appeals court ruled in Warren’s favor and ordered the judge to reconsider the case, including the lack of authority to reinstate her as president.

As the qualifying deadline approaches and the possibility of a comeback increases, Warren has announced that she will indeed challenge Lopez.

The case has not been sent back to the judge for reconsideration. But it is increasingly likely that Warren will return to power to serve out the remainder of his term before the November election.

Mr Proctor predicted the race would be “an attractive one”.