A staple of Israel’s nightly news these days is a recap of global anti-Semitism and support for Hamas. This week, a shocking demonstration at my once-loved alma mater, Columbia University, drew attention.
Viewers may conclude that they are reliving Germany in the 1930s, a time of Jewish hatred while the forces of civilization were on the run.
How could anything be this bad? Is it psychosis caused by a celestial event? Is Israel to blame in the first place? Accounting seems to be in order.
Time for accountants to understand what is going on
Indeed, I myself find myself deriding decolonization “progressives” who develop a selective, ignorant, and twisted narrative against Israel. In a TV interview, I called them the “useful fools” of the jihad. A much stupider version than the original, (incredibly) less despicable Soviet-sympathetic Western intellectuals.
I have also lamented the indisputable fact that anti-Semitism is not only alive and well, but more widespread than previously thought.
At the same time, much of what is labeled as anti-Semitism is simply opposition to the war (or even Israel itself), and is deliberately loud and brash to offend Jews and sway public opinion. Some might plausibly argue that it is.
I don’t necessarily like it, but free speech supporters can’t prevent it. I also know that many critics do not primarily support the actions of the Israeli government. Its actions include a highly flawed war that kills thousands of innocent people and appears to lack strategy. Another story coming from Jerusalem could sway them.
To better understand how America’s support for and opposition to Israel breaks down, I will break down the American position on this issue below.
Pro-hamas Muslim Americans or extreme progressive anti-colonists: maybe 5%.
Many of them don’t believe or don’t care about the atrocities of October 7, and want Hamas to overwhelm Israel without regard for the fate of the Jewish people. These groups need to be closely monitored, as their anti-Israel and anti-Zionist activities make little secret of their hatred of Jews, and some of them are dangerous.
Pro-Palestinian progressives and young liberals: about 20%. The group shows varying degrees of support for the Palestinians and is exposed to both real and fake information highlighting Israeli wrongdoing in Gaza.
They generally resent that U.S. tax dollars are being used to support mass bombing, starvation, and, in their view, possible genocide. Israel has lost them because today’s story is one of eternal war and punishment against Palestinian women and children, as Israeli extremists seek to kill and expel them.
Many of them are deeply influenced by the social media culture that makes everything a battle of stories, and Israel is now “canceled.”
While Israel continues to actively fight Hamas, its generous regional peace and cooperation efforts toward civilians, including Palestinians, could significantly dent the group.
This would pave the way for broader legitimacy to fight Hamas to the end, now or in the future, but to distinguish it from anything resembling a war against the Palestinians.
Instead, Prime Minister Netanyahu has delivered a 2023 Putinization effort, a cynical disregard for Israel’s traditional alliances with the democratic West, and a stubborn refusal to engage with the international community’s plans for the next day. They were chased away with outrageous policies.
Pro-Israel liberals, including some Jews: approximately 25%.
The group recognizes Israel’s fundamental right to defend itself and does not believe Israel should have carte blanche, but it absolutely does not support Islamic extremists and believes they are insane. I understand that I have to deal with it. But they lament that Israel did not seize the opportunity to break out of this vicious cycle, they hate Prime Minister Netanyahu and his endless plots against peace, and they hope that Israel will drag the United States into a regional or even global war. not present.
Nevertheless, they still support Israel, distinguish between the deep state and the Israeli people, and hope that the United States will find a way to push Israel in the right direction, largely due to President Joe Biden’s I support the policy.
Typical non-MAGA conservatives and “concerned Christians”: about 15%. These primarily support Israel, but are concerned about large sums of money, destruction and death in Gaza, and the risk that the United States will lose control.
Some of them are concerned about how American technology is being used to harm Palestinians, including Christians in Gaza. Tucker Carlson may not be what he once was in terms of influence, but when they lose him, as Israel did, it should be a warning sign.
We must also remember that these qualified conservatives were not necessarily pro-Israel. When George W. Bush won the White House 24 years ago, there was great concern that his compatriots would be too pro-business, concerned only with practicalities, and side with the Arabs for oil interests. was there.
Of course, history went in a different direction.
Trump Republicans, evangelicals, right-wingers, religious sects, “one issue” (Israel survival) Jews: about 35%.
The group is characterized by full support for Israel, little love or faith in Islam, and a healthy hatred of extremist groups like Hamas.
They believe that Biden and the US should never sanction or constrain Israel, and that the Israeli government (preferably right-wing) should be able to do whatever it wants.
A majority would probably support a peace deal depending on the terms, but overwhelmingly they favor war.
Many evangelicals believe in a preordained end-times scenario in which the return of the Messiah requires Israel to rise up, fight, and ultimately be destroyed in some way. That would make them very advantageous to today’s Israeli arsonists.
However, this group is unstable. I don’t know what Donald Trump will do if he returns to office.
If he opposes war with Iran or is hostile to Israel for any reason, many of his cultists will abandon Israel faster than you can say “Yahya Sinwar.” That’s in part because the far right can teach ignorant progressives a thing or two about deep-rooted anti-Semitism.
You could dig deeper and come up with more fine-grained distinctions, but this seems like a reasonable way to group political groups. This is also broadly consistent with broader voting patterns in the United States.
I can’t prove that the breakdown is exactly as I outlined. So my best guess, based on more than half a century of following American politics and 20 years of watching the digitally driven freak show unravel.
If you look closely, you’ll see that the numbers I’m proposing are consistent with the polls. Opinion polls show that while many people want the war to end, when faced with a choice, an overwhelming majority of Americans support Israel, but about half of young people do not. do not have.
It’s a complex situation, and it’s not as bleak as catastropheists and propagandists would have you believe. And in Israel, movement is possible. To understand why, consider how fundamentally the election of Donald Trump has changed America’s worldview, as the Pew Research Center shows, and as anyone who has traveled knows. Let’s consider Taka.
And just as there are wildly different versions of America depending on which side wins the election, so too is Israel.
The easiest way to sway American sentiment is to win wars and seek peace in the region, rather than failing in a decades-long descent into madness.
And it’s possible. Thanks in large part to a shared fear of Islamic extremism and Iran, moderate Arab states and moderate Palestinians will join the West and a benign version of Israel, especially if there are enough carrots.
President Biden has proposed a version of this that includes restoring the Palestinian Authority in Gaza and reaping peace with Saudi Arabia. Prime Minister Netanyahu appears to have rejected all of this.
He has done so primarily to keep far-right forces firmly and safely within his coalition government. In the opinion of the Israeli public, Prime Minister Netanyahu is trying to prolong the war. Because as long as the war can be said to be ongoing, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu can plan to delay the inevitable reckoning on October 7th and perhaps the expected defensive battle. .
Rarely has an eternal war served such a political purpose.
This path puts Jews around the world and in the United States at risk by conflating anti-war opposition with anti-Semitism. And its supporters are playing with fire, as the ensuing conflagration spares no pyromaniacs.
If any part of this analysis is correct, the government’s actions could be considered treasonous. Viewed through that prism, Israel has bigger problems than ignorant students.
The author is a former editor-in-chief of the Associated Press in Europe, Africa and the Middle East, a former president of the Foreign Press Association in Jerusalem, and the author of two books on Israel. Follow his newsletter Ask questions later at danperry.substack.com.
