Six years ago, the Trump administration’s “zero tolerance” policy went into effect at the southern border. Thousands of migrant families were separated and migrant children were removed and held separately while their parents awaited prosecution. Images and audio of the caged children stunned the nation and protests quickly spread. Democrats rallied against then-President Donald Trump, protests spread across the country, and public opinion strongly opposed Trump’s policies. Immigration was once again a top concern, and the percentage of Americans who said immigration was good for the country soared. This sentiment continued to grow for the remainder of Trump’s term.
Now, things are very different. Americans again see immigration as the most important issue in the country, but public sentiment appears to be turning negative. Recent polls seem to suggest that a significant number of American voters, and not just Republicans, are warming to hardline immigration proposals and rhetoric.
Numerous polls suggest that the American public is growing colder toward immigrants, with even Democrats expressing concern about Donald Trump’s proposed mass deportation policies. This is a reversal of a decades-long trend of increasing public sympathy and approval of immigrants. This article explains three reasons for this surprising shift in public opinion.
A recent poll suggested that 42 percent of Democrats support mass deportations of illegal immigrants. Other polls have also found that public mood is tilting toward anti-immigration. Long-term Gallup tracking surveys dating back to the 1960s have shown an overall decline in the percentage of Americans who want immigration rates to increase or remain the same. Conversely, the percentage of Americans who want immigration to decrease has increased, with 41 percent of Americans holding this view, up from a low of 28 percent in 2020.
This anti-immigration movement comes despite a trend in which general American opinion has shifted in favor of immigrants over the past few decades. For example, according to data from the Pew Research Center, in 1994, 63% of Americans thought immigrants were a “burden” on the country, while only 31% thought they made the country stronger. By 2019, this dynamic had reversed, with 62% of Americans thinking immigrants were an asset to the country and only 28% thinking they were a burden.
Now, as the public’s views on immigration appear to be shifting to the right, politicians are moving accordingly: Biden and Democrats in Congress have moved to the right, and Trump, who ran his first campaign by demonizing immigrants, particularly people of color, has stepped up his relentless attacks on the Biden administration’s immigration policies.
So what is the reason for Americans’ worsening mood towards immigrants and migration?
There are no easy answers, but pollsters and immigration researchers have offered a number of explanations that can be roughly categorized into three theories.
The first theory focuses on the role of elected officials, specifically Republicans, and even more specifically Trump: As Republicans have left power and moved into opposition, they have refocused on immigration as a threat to American identity.
Other experts argue that the economy, particularly inflation and the public’s sense of scarcity, is making Americans more critical of immigrants. When people feel the economy is doing well and there is plenty of wealth to go around, they are more willing to share that wealth. But when people feel the economy is unstable, like it has been since the pandemic when inflation has skyrocketed, Americans are more hesitant to share with outsiders.
The third group argues that anti-immigrant sentiment is driven by concerns about the rule of law and social unrest. This theory posits that the post-pandemic surge in crime, combined with increased media reports of public disorder, has heightened concerns about Americans’ safety and quality of life. And those concerns apply to the border and those attempting to cross it without papers.
Theory 1: Politicians
Trump’s first presidential campaign, literally beginning with his inaugural address, was based on demonizing immigrants and arguing that open borders were ruining the U.S. But after he took office, he found himself having to argue that the immigration problem was rapidly improving thanks to new anti-immigration measures, creating a rhetorical tension.
Since taking office, Joe Biden has promised a more open and humane approach to immigration and border policy. He has suspended construction of the border wall, issued new protections for DACA recipients, and introduced a new immigration bill to Congress. He has essentially tried to create as stark a contrast as possible with Donald Trump’s accomplishments.
But this shift has also provided a golden opportunity for Trump’s Republican Party to once again frame immigration and immigration as a threat to American identity. The post-pandemic surge in illegal border crossings and legal asylum seekers, along with this liberalization of immigration policy, has provided fodder for fear mongering and exploitation of racial and social fears. And right-wing politicians and commentators have routinely highlighted this threat, uniting Americans who are skeptical of immigration.
The 2022 midterm elections and the 2024 campaign so far have been evidence of this shift. The 2020 campaign was centered on the pandemic and the economy, but with Biden in power, Republican candidates across the country have begun talking about “open borders.”
For example, pro-immigration groups America’s Voice and Immigration Hub tracked increased mentions of the terms “Biden-Harris border crisis” and “mass amnesty” in paid ads, as well as an increase in anti-immigrant rhetoric online, in 2021. As the midterm election season got into full swing, more Republican campaign ads began to mention immigrants negatively, with roughly one-fifth of ads mentioning them in March 2022, for example. And by 2024, Republican candidates (most notably Donald Trump) were also talking about an immigrant “invasion.”
Trump’s recent description of undocumented immigrants as “staining the blood of our nation” is a key example of this vitriol against immigrants, and it fits into America’s long history of xenophobia. Immigration scholars consider this rhetoric a direct appeal to “in-groups” – existing communities that define themselves in opposition to “out-groups” like immigrants and use suspicion and prejudice against them.
Still, this theory cannot fully explain the shift in negative sentiment since the pandemic. Republican politicians (notably including Trump) and right-wing media have previously spearheaded cycles of anger and panic over immigration, caravans, and the southern border. Immigration was a key campaign issue for Republicans in the 2018 midterm elections, and support for immigration has continued to grow.
Theory 2: It’s the economy
When Americans feel good about their economic security and the health of the national economy, they also feel good about immigrants and settlers — a lesson Gallup polls have taught them over the past few decades, according to Jeff Jones, one of Gallup’s data and opinion experts.
“Approval for immigration was trending low at around the time of the Great Recession, in the 50% range, but in 2018 and 2019, it became much more positive,” Jones said. Indeed, both Republicans and Democrats were more positive about immigration during that time.
But following the pandemic and the resulting rise in inflation and interest rates, economic sentiment has plummeted and anti-immigrant sentiment has also begun to rise.
These recent shifts have also shown up in several other Gallup tracking polls. When asked whether immigrants have a positive or negative impact on job opportunities, taxes or the economy in general, negative sentiment tended to increase just before the Great Recession, then rebounded. Similar dynamics were seen around the time of the pandemic, with 43% of respondents saying immigrants have a positive impact on the economy and 31% saying they have a negative impact. By 2023, respondents’ opinions were about evenly split, 39% to 38%.
But the economy alone cannot explain the recent changes. Economic conditions and sentiment toward the economy have improved significantly since last year, yet public anti-immigrant sentiment has accelerated. Clearly, something else is going on.
Theory 3: It’s a “law and order” mentality.
Matthew Wright, a political scientist at the University of British Columbia who studies immigration, suggests a third, complementary explanation: the pandemic-era crime surge and increased border crossing attempts under the Biden administration have fueled a new public appetite for “law and order” policies.
Compared to the drop in migration rates during the pandemic, the surge in border crossings over the past three years has been unprecedented, overwhelming federal and local authorities’ ability to manage. The volume has played out dramatic scenes at the border, in border communities and in major cities where many asylum seekers have been deported.
Wright suggests that a significant number of Americans feel ambivalent about illegal immigration, asylum seekers, and immigration in general, conflating social unrest. They are torn between sympathy for immigrants in general and fears about public safety, order, and the rule of law. And they combine their feelings about the border with their attitudes toward crime and governance.
“In terms of what people are worried about, my reading of these numbers and these trends is that they’re primarily worried about illegal immigration and the border,” Wright said. “It goes without saying that people are deeply uncomfortable with the idea that they don’t have a border and that the border is not something that we can enforce.”
The Gallup poll offers some clues to the shift in sentiment here, too: In 2023, 47% of Americans believe immigration has a negative impact on crime in the U.S., up from 42% in 2019. And the share of Americans who say they are personally “very” worried about immigrants is 47%. illegal Immigration has been steadily increasing since 2020, from 32% in March 2020 to 48% in March this year.
For Wright, these findings complement other polls that show a complex mix of opinions on immigration: There are significant numbers of voters who hold both these more critical views of immigration and generally open views, such as being favorable toward refugees, favoring legal immigration reform, and supporting a path to citizenship for people already here.
The law-and-order theory suggests that these voters may harbor conflicting ideas in their minds: not opposed to immigration, but wanting it to proceed in an orderly fashion. The theory also explains why Trump and the Republican Party have a unique opportunity this year to activate both xenophobic and bigoted attitudes among some voters, exploiting their fears of “chaos” and bad management.
“They’re able to use a very simple message to attract many different kinds of people, both bigots and people who are purely law-and-order people — people who aren’t necessarily overtly racist, but who value social order,” Wright said.
