Aftermath of the Northern Ireland general election

The “earthquake” may have passed, but aftershocks are still being felt across Northern Ireland’s political landscape.

It was the most dramatic outcome in a thoroughly undramatic election campaign.

Officials are now beginning to explore beneath the surface to understand why the plate moved and to assess whether the new fault line is permanent.

However, I would be careful about over-analysing the results when so many other factors are at play.

Firstly, the turnout of 57% was the lowest in the history of a Westminster election.

The early election in July coincided with the peak holiday season and was sure to bring the numbers down.

Turnout exceeded 60 percent in only three constituencies, while others struggled to surpass 50 percent.

Boundary changes also played a key role in shaping the final outcome, as voters headed to new polling stations and a new list of candidates.

On Thursday, the Richter scale rose in some constituencies, but the Westminster reading showed little change overall.

The Nationalist vote rose from 40.1% to 40.4%, but the Unionist vote fell from 43.2% to 43.1%.

There is also no change in the Green Party’s membership, with nine Nationalist, eight Unionist and one Alliance member.

But even bigger changes could be on the way.

Although it failed to gain seven seats, its share of the vote increased to 27 percent, despite not fielding candidates in four constituencies.

The party also won 67% of the overall nationalist vote, and in the process pushed the once-close constituencies of North Belfast and Fermanagh and South Tyrone out of Unionist reach.

Sinn Féin strengthened its hold in South Down and regained lost ground in Foyle, where the SDLP’s majority had been significantly reduced.

But most notably, it is encroaching on areas once considered safe DUP strongholds, such as East Londonderry.

Kathleen McGurk won her seat by 179 votes from Gregory Campbell, who received a majority of more than 9,000 votes, but there were more Unionist candidates in the race this time.

This is expected to be Sinn Féin’s biggest target at the next election and don’t be surprised if the party picks up another seat at the expense of the Socialist Workers Party.

With the DUP in full crisis mode, Sinn Féin is already planning its next move.

But the pain was eased somewhat by the removal of his most ardent rival, Jim Allister, from the Stormund blue bench.

Although it was the most high-profile result of the night, the DUP’s vote share in North Antrim was falling, leaving the TUV in the best position to attack.

Despite the claims of its opponents, the TUV’s presence on the ballot paper split the vote so that trade unionism did not lose any seats.

In Lagan Valley, the TUV candidate’s vote share was lower than Sorcha Eastwood’s margin of victory.

But the TUV came within 179 votes of being accused of stealing the seat of Gregory Campbell in East Londonderry.

Jim Allister will now be teaming up with five reform-leaning MPs at Westminster, but it may be harder for them to operate as effectively as they were at Stormont.

Losing Lagan Valley to a non-Unionist party was the first time in the constituency’s 40-year history and was as painful for the DUP as losing North Antrim.

Sorcha Eastwood turned a margin of 6,500 votes into a victory of 3,000.

She used strategic nationalist voting and growing support from unionist areas to gain popularity and attract votes from across the political spectrum.

Mr Eastwood’s style of politics has struck a chord with the DUP as it struggles to emerge from the shadow of Sir Geoffrey Donaldson.

DUP campaigners said the circumstances of his shock departure from the party and his court appearance were the focus of almost every conversation on the doorstep.

There is also undeniable feeling of anger and frustration at the deal the Party negotiated to restore Stormont – which has been accused of overselling.

As a result, many DUP voters chose to stay home or vote for other candidates.

This suited the Ulster Unionists well and, as expected, they easily won back their South Antrim seats.

The party pitted its highest-profile candidate against the DUP’s lowest-profile outgoing MP, and it worked.

Strategic voters may have helped the Alliance Party win a DUP seat in Lagan Valley, but they abandoned the party in North Down.

Those who helped Stephen Farley win his seat at the height of the Brexit fight have returned to their core political base.

This paves the way for Alex Easton to fulfil a lifelong dream of becoming the latest in a long lineage of independent MPs for North Down.

Alliance leader Naomi Long also lost in a more crowded field of candidates, with DUP leader Gavin Robinson extending his lead over his long-time rival.

Despite his defeat, Long appeared relieved that he would be returning to his job as justice minister rather than returning to his seat at Westminster.

This may be the last time we see Robinson and Long face off in East Belfast.

Overall, the Alliance’s vote share fell by around 2 percentage points, halting the party’s recent gains, but it will be encouraged by its significant reduction in the gap to the DUP in East Antrim.

For the SDLP, the return of their two MPs marks mission accomplished and they will now hope to strengthen their support under a Labour government.

Calls from DUP MPs for unity among the party are likely to grow louder.

They will point to places like Lagan Valley, where the non-unionist candidate won by more than 18,000 votes, compared with a total of around 29,000 Unionist votes.

But adding up the numbers is the easy part. Finding common ground to hold the unionist parties together remains the big challenge.

It would be “incredibly onerous”, in the words of UUP minister Mike Nesbitt, but worth it.

That will become clear this week when four Unionist parties – the DUP, UUP, TUV and independent Alex Easton – take to the seats at Westminster.